Back to the roots...

[Drazen]

How many of us have dreamed that we can find any point in the game from which we can be SURE that our hit will come in next X number of spins, which even in the worst situations we can handle with some progression and of course win every time?

We wouldn't want to wait that situation beyond eternity and of course we don't want it to require some astronomical bankroll for our win after that point... We are not humble persons in any aspect here of course.

So what would be fair chance for us? How many of us have seen 15 reds in a row? Or maybe more? Is that rare? What is the longest in a row that can be?

Since we live in modern era with very advanced computers, we can find this out quite easy and relatively fast. If some person knows how to write computer simulation it can get the answer in a short time.

Luckily for us we had such enthusiasts here in the past who find these answers for us. So if we look in the probability section we can see that Mr. Bayes was doing some simulations around this and he mentions limit for EC-s has z score about 5.28 which is about 28 reds in a row on a non zero wheel.

So back to the dream. What if we can for example wait for 25 reds in row and then start 8 step Marty and be sure we would win pretty much every time with required BR of just 63 units? Sounds just like in dreams.

But 18 numbers out of 37 to miss for a 25 times will require astronomical probability, so it means many of us wouldn't see that situation in our lifetime even if we are in the casino 24/7 and playing every spin.

Lets take dozens. Hm they can sleep for over 35 spins and waiting for at least 30 to be sure also isn't fair bargain.

So if we would take any section of the game we would see same situations (but with different ratios of course) and sadly for us, it isn't exploitable in reality as we would like to.

So in other words we want to have as many numbers as possible missing for as many spins as possible and then we would want to start betting on them, thinking that at least one them is due to come in next few spins, as apparently this game seems to have some limitations? We cant say everything is possible in roulette, right? Well if red cant go sleeping over 28 spins or so than something seems truly due in this game right?

There must be some LAW that dictates some things in this game? Most famous is definitely "Law of the third", which says that after one full roulette cycle (37 spins) will have about one third of unhit numbers in average. One third out of 37 is about 12, right? A dozen of numbers?

In Bays-es analysis of max possible sleeps didn't we saw that dozen can sleep for about 38 spins and now here by the theory we should have on average about dozen of unhit numbers in every 37 spins cycle? And we can have 37 spin cycle on every spin after first 37 spins if we would look back only for the last 37 spins? Yes? No? So sooner or later we should get our 12 unhit numbers for 37 spins... And what with them then? We should apply Marty for dozens and win every time? 

Lets ask z-score how high that is on its scale.

12 numbers sleeping for 37 spins is z-score of 4,21. Wow this seems quite high for so rare event which should be having so frequently, doesn't it?

And I said that is only average, right? So it means sometimes we should have even more then 12 numbers sleeping for 37 spins.

13 numbers sleeping for 37 spins is z-score  of 4.48
14 numbers sleeping for 37 spins is z-score  of 4.75
15 numbers sleeping for 37 spins is z-score of 5.02

Can it be 16 or more? C mon even 13-15 numbers to bet after they didn't show 37 spins? Sounds fair.

So if we find 13,14,15 or maybe more unhit numbers after 37 spins, for how long it will take that at least one of them hits in the worst scenarios...?

Must/can we play them as a group only?

Cheers

Drazen

[Azim]

13 numbers sleeping for 37 spins is z-score  of 4.48
14 numbers sleeping for 37 spins is z-score  of 4.75
15 numbers sleeping for 37 spins is z-score of 5.02

Can it be 16 or more? C mon even 13-15 numbers to bet after they didn't show 37 spins? Sounds fair.

So if we find 13,14,15 or maybe more unhit numbers after 37 spins, for how long it will take that at least one of them hits in the worst scenarios...?

Must/can we play them as a group only?

Cheers

Drazen

I currently have some time. Have been looking at this option as I am trying to understand your post of the law of third.
Would it not be better to split the 13/14/15 into dozens and play the progression as individuals and not as a group.

[Drazen]

Would it not be better to split the 13/14/15 into dozens and play the progression as individuals and not as a group.

I am not sure we can tell straight away.

Not many people have went to research so high z-score peaks... At such heights oxygen mask for breathing is required 

LoL

Cheers

[Azim]

I am not sure we can tell straight away.

Not many people have went to research so high z-score peaks... At such heights oxygen mask for breathing is required

LoL

Cheers

True.  But I think it's going to be a game of patience for waiting that long.  Patience is a Virtue. Good things come to people who are willing to put effort into it.

[RouletteMaster]

Look into winkel's GUT.  It has answers to what you are looking at Drazen.

[Azim]

Look into winkel's GUT.  It has answers to what you are looking at Drazen.

RouletteMaster, I read about the GUT system mentioned in one of the posts. But haven't found the actual post. Is it possible to paste a link. Please and Thank you.

[Azim]

Drazen,
Have a look at this:

link:://:.vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=10230.0

I think it has some merit in the way he is building the curve and doing sleepers based on wheel and table layout.

[6th-sense]

drazen ..i always use your law of the third post as a landing/bookmark page for this site...and sometimes read it again now and again..i think its one of the most interesting reads on here...and its something that always happens...people should read this topic with interest and add ideas

[Drazen]

True.  But I think it's going to be a game of patience for waiting that long.

Well one doesn't need to wait for too long... That is the point here. Even 5 STD-s like this will come few times in a human length session. And that is astronomically rare probability...

You are a coder, right? You can check this easy.

My first system was created around waking sleepers after 37 spins, but it had Martyngale type of MM... Something more sophisticated would go better of course 

P.s. I like your signature. Nicely said 

Cheers

Drazen

[6th-sense]

one of the most interesting ways i seen lately is from nick...i can,t post the sheet as its not mine to..but its on the idea that a run will happen and a sort of cancellation strategy....i got him  to adjust it for me whereas it bets only red all the time and parlays each unit as a martingale bet....only using casino.s money..the idea is  that a big run of wins will cancel out the differential of black losses...so out of 2000 spins if I'm down 1000 units a martingale 10 parley step should clear the losses..and that's on the extreme ...it usually clears the difference a lot lot quicker than this..it always resets back to 1 when in plus..also it wins more sometimes than 1 unit because of  the stage of the parlay bet....how many times do u see a 10 run number of reds..but lets say we do it your way with a slight tweak...what is the least amount of spins it takes to get a 10 red run...say we wait at least 500 spins...or more and if no run of reds have happened then bet..if the average runs is workable you can make this bet to suit  the average medium....as you say what is the limits of waiting for something to happen...we always see long runs of colours...combined with a parlay maybe somwthings are less dangerous than others

also hundreds of spins is not too bad for the bot just set and go..

[Drazen]

Variance is the only thing that matters in this game. In the theory it doesnt have limits... But anyhow placing your bet on numbers that are very close to 5 STD-s or on it, means something...


Is someone willing to make a tracker that tracks 37 spins and can tell us when there will be 12-16 sleepers for example?

Drazen

[Turner]

Drazen
I am continuously thinking these things. Thats where I get " the last unique 6 is actually a very hot  line".
Ive even already thought that the sleepers after a run of 37 are a dozen which has slept 37...which must have the momentum (in -SD terms) to hit soon. A stored energy like a coiled spring....if you will.

So in theory....a dozen  sleeps 37 times every 37 spins.
Problem is that its hindsight

Very interesting post for me personally.

[Turner]

Drazen
I am continuously thinking these things. that's where I get " the last unique 6 is actually a very hot  line".
I've even already thought that the sleepers after a run of 37 are a dozen which has slept 37...which must have the momentum (in -SD terms) to hit soon. A stored energy like a coiled spring....if you will.

So in theory....a dozen  sleeps 37 times every 37 spins.
Problem is that its hindsight

Very interesting post for me personally.

Conclusion is that these extremes we see on the carpet once in a blue moon....are happening all the time in random groups
For example.....after 24 spins....we may have 18 hits. There we have an ec which has hit 24 times

[Nickmsi]

Hello Drazen . .

I have done a lot of testing with sleepers and have attached my "UnHit after 37 Spin" Tracker.

This Tracker basically tracks the numbers that have not appeared in the last 37 spins.

This not only tracks but also tells you what to bet and how much to bet so that one hit will usually get you into profit.

Hope this helps.

Nick

[Drazen]

Thanks Nick! 


Drazen