Holy Grail By Winkel.

[Azim]

Looking at the numbers you have posted. Hoping them to be correct, I would bet 3's.

If you look at 0's last 4-5 spins they been going down.
Which means they have hit already.

Looking at 1's. They are  increasing and decreasing.
>1's are increasing.
2's are increasing.
>2 and 3's have been constant.
If anything I would bet the =3's for 18 spins.

I hope I am right.




/////Just noticed after I posted above/////

I would have also jumped considering my 0's are way less than 1's.

[Kav]

Hi,

dekatria is my email and I have never had any email exchange with anyone with your email.
And I'm not Dave nor I ever use that name. I'm Kav - in every forum and in all my email exchanges.
Can you forward the email to my personal email? 
Where did "that" person find your email to message you?
If that was some exchange within our forum, it uses that address because that the admin address of the forum.

[Azim]

Hi,

dekatria is my email and I have never had any email exchange with anyone with your email address
And I'm not Dave nor I ever use that name. I'm Kav - in every forum and in all my email exchanges.
Can you forward the email to my personal email? 
Where did "that" person find your email to message you?
If that was some exchange within our forum, it uses that address because that the admin address of the forum.

I have no idea, but it did happen.

[Azim]

Opps Sorry

[MrG]

I guess the right way is to play the 11 unhit numbers.

Yes, seems to be logical, but I avoided that as in such a phase of the game as it is quite dangerous betting unhit numbers, because only 4 new unhit numbers are expected to appear between spins 37 and 50.

[MrG]

Looking at the numbers you have posted. Hoping them to be correct, I would bet 3's.

If you look at 0's last 4-5 spins they been going down.
Which means they have hit already.

Looking at 1's. They are  increasing and decreasing.
>1's are increasing.
2's are increasing.
>2 and 3's have been constant.
If anything I would bet the =3's for 18 spins.

I hope I am right.




/////Just noticed after I posted above/////

I would have also jumped considering my 0's are way less than 1's.

Yes, there is another crossing between 3 and >3, but I'm now interested in how to play crossing 0 and >1. At spin 42 there was even one more crossing between 4 and >4 because I'm tracking numbers up to those hit more than 4. But I didn't posted 4 and >4.

I played the situation in different way and won on spin 44. I will post that later as it is quite time consuming to put the numbers here in table like form. But I'm still wondering what is the correct way of playing such crossing.

That is an interesting note about stopping playing when zeroes are lower than ones. I don't remember seeing that mentioned anywhere.

[MrG]

So this is how I played it, I won on spin 44:

Spin Number        0        1        >1        2        >2        3        >3               35        14        14        8        4          4         3         1               36        14        14        8        4          4         3         1               37        14        13        9        5          4         3         1               38        14        13        9        5          4         2         2               39        13        14        9        5          4         2         2               40        12        15        9        5          4         2         2               41        11        16        9        5          4         2         2               42        11        15        10      6          4         2         2               43        11        14        11      7          4         2         2               44        11        14        11      6          5         3         2

On spin 43 I bet >1 numbers, so 11 numbers and this bet won next spin as one of the numbers fell for the third time.
But I still don't know if this is correct way of playing crossing 0 vs >1.

[Azim]

So this is how I played it, I won on spin 44:

Spin Number        0        1        >1        2        >2        3        >3               35        14        14        8        4          4         3         1               36        14        14        8        4          4         3         1               37        14        13        9        5          4         3         1               38        14        13        9        5          4         2         2               39        13        14        9        5          4         2         2               40        12        15        9        5          4         2         2               41        11        16        9        5          4         2         2               42        11        15        10      6          4         2         2               43        11        14        11      7          4         2         2               44        11        14        11      6          5         3         2

On spin 43 I bet >1 numbers, so 11 numbers and this bet won next spin as one of the numbers fell for the third time.
But I still don't know if this is correct way of playing crossing 0 vs >1.

The numbers to bet have to always come from column which has "=". You always go left to right.
In your case you went right to left. If I am right you got lucky.

Maybe you have found a twist that's worth looking into for added profit.

[MrG]

The numbers to bet have to always come from column which has "=". You always go left to right.
In your case you went right to left. If I am right you got lucky.

Maybe you have found a twist that's worth looking into for added profit.

So probably played it in wrong way. It seems that Winkel is the only person who can answer this. :-)

[winkel]

Hi Mr. G,

you made a decision. Thats it.

You watched what was going on.

This is what the strategy wants to be.

br
winkel

[MrG]

Hi Mr. G,

you made a decision. Thats it.

You watched what was going on.

This is what the strategy wants to be.

br
winkel

Hi Winkel,

thanks for replying. I thought your answer might be like that because I remember you mentioned somewhere that GUT is simply a tool for finding out what is going on and betting based on it. All in all it seems that almost any type of play based on GUT and reading what is going on may be correct.

[Azim]

Winkel, considering you still answering and won't be bitter. I am once again, trying to polish my thinking and and trying to prove this wrong..

link:://:.vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=3938.0

I know I have my calculations right.

How ever I am having a hard time understanding this statement of yours.

As the Formula is hidden we have to find a way to detect any information about it:

The way we know is:
Result A -> (hidden sequence) -> Result B -> (hidden sequence) -> Result C

How we can use it:

we know the situation is 14 13 10
The hidden sequence formed this situation from 3 possible further states:
A) 15 12 10 : A "0" is transformed to an "1"
B) 14 14 09 : A "1" is transformed to an ">1"
C) 14 13 10 : A ">1" has appeared again

if we came from A) then a probability of 15/37 did its job
if we came from B) then a probability 0f 14/37 did its job
if we came from C) then a probability of 10/37 did its Job

(btw: if we add we have 39/37!)

The next hidden Sequence can form also 3 new situations from 14 13 10:
A1) 13 14 10 : A "0" appears
B1) 14 12 11 : A "1" appears
C1) 14 13 10 : A ">1" appears again.

if we reach A1) a probability of 14/37 did its job
if we reach B1) a probability of 13/37 did its job
if we reach C1) a probability of 10/37 did its job.


br
winkel

ps: due to my bad english, i would like to read if there are misunderstandings or not

Would it be possible for you to remember as to what you were trying to layout.

If I look at the number's and the calculations you have done.

If the calculations are right .  I would always go with option "A"

Can you prove me wrong?
If I was a follower of probability, which I am. I always work on probabilities, no GUT feeling. the 3 options were we are going to head into the 15/37 has a better chance than any of the other 2. Not only that the current crossing we are dealing with has a higher probability of taking place.

Even your calculations prove it.(BTW for everyone looking at this: see how he has stated 39 /37 :  there is your true house edge. It has got nothing to do with the extra zero or the payout.)

Winkel, could you be kind and explain?

[Azim]

Note: All the "Thread reply #" references below are for this thread:
link:://vlsroulette.com/testing-zone/a-gut-situation-tested/msg24874/
(My "A GUT-situation tested" thread)


Why this test?

winkel claims that 2.7%-losing bets can be combined to give a positive end result.
But when asked for an example, he cannot point to one single such situation.

He claims - as I understand it - that it is because of the stochastik distribution of those losing bets, that the end sum will be positive.
Because when one bet loses, another bet will win... or something like that.
(Thread replies #6 and #16 plus several in his own GUT-threads)

I said that it is a false claim.
A few or many -2.7% results simply CANNOT - according to math laws and probability theories - be combined in such a way that they end up positive.
(Thread reply #4)

But that's what MATH says.
winkel claims that his method is NOT a MATH method but stochastik...
(Thread reply #16)


So I asked winkel for a set of rules for a test and we agreed to use these:

Columns to use:
=0 vs =1, >1 or =2
=1 vs >1 or =2

A crossing is:
a) The "=0" or "=1" column is equal to one or more of their respective "vs"-columns
b) The "=0" or "=1" column contains 1 number more than one or more of their respective "vs"-columns

Consider any crossing where the bet is < 18 numbers.

Select the crossing to bet as the one that gives the highest added value
(f ex 13-12-12 bet 13 as 13+12=25 whereas 12+12=24)
if conditions are met by more than two columns.

Select the leftmost column to bet if there are more than one to choose from.

Stop at +40u or better.
Do not pass spin #50.
(Thread replies #25 and #26)

Later he added an instruction I interpreted as:
"Do not bet more than 36u on a losing column even if the trigger is the same."

He has proved if we come from a 39/37 to a 37/37 result.

If you can find the right number's at the right time. You have a win win situation.

Example going shopping: Go with out looking at any flyers or no deals. You end up paying full price.

[winkel]

Winkel, considering you still answering and won't be bitter. I am once again, trying to polish my thinking and and trying to prove this wrong..

link:://:.vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=3938.0

I know I have my calculations right.

How ever I am having a hard time understanding this statement of yours.



Would it be possible for you to remember as to what you were trying to layout.

If I look at the number's and the calculations you have done.

If the calculations are right .  I would always go with option "A"

Can you prove me wrong?
If I was a follower of probability, which I am. I always work on probabilities, no GUT feeling. the 3 options were we are going to head into the 15/37 has a better chance than any of the other 2. Not only that the current crossing we are dealing with has a higher probability of taking place.

Even your calculations prove it.(BTW for everyone looking at this: see how he has stated 39 /37 :  there is your true house edge. It has got nothing to do with the extra zero or the payout.)

Winkel, could you be kind and explain?

This is not a way to go this is theory of probability:

if you find at spin 37 a situation like 14 13 10 you know exactly where it comes from. There are three possibilities: see attachment 1

either way is formed by a "hidden sequence" which we don´t know and understand. Markov says the next movement (way) is formed by the same or a similiar "hidden sequence":
this sequence can form three different ways now: see attachment 2

Our answer to make is: which way will the "hidden sequence" take?

[winkel]

I hope I got your question right. Otherwise pls ask again.

And think of this:

You would alwas take the 15/37! Seems to be ok.

But: If you take "always" this, your results will be as KonFuSed proofed it!!!
How to avoid this?

That 1 group has the highest chance to hit, doesn´t mean it will hit. The other groups will also hit due to their chance.
So the question is: Which chance is due to hit? (I know there is no due, but lets take this word for understanding)

If 0-Group has hit several time or more than it should: We are allowed to ask: Is this streak to stop?
If 0-Group hasn´t it for a long time: We are allowed to ask: Is this streak to stop?
If 0-Group has hit every other spin in a kind of a rhythm: We are allowed toa ask:  Is this streak to stop?

If we decide that 0-Group is to bet: We are allowed to ask: How often did it (not) hit at that situation, and how often did one of the other groups (not) hit?

so we have a lot arguments to bet or not to bet.