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An interesting MM riddle

Started by kingsroulette, Jan 11, 12:59 AM 2014

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0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

rouletteKEY

Just ot throw it out there for simplicity's sake

Standard FIBO +1 step on loss...-1 step on win

1st example +412
2nd example -91

Might wanna check the numbers...I did it quick and didn't check my work

It said bet every spin... but with common sense stop losses on losing streaks the numbers could improve...

FIBO of course requires a higher bank and you have to watch table limits

kingsroulette

Roulettekey,
        Fibo or labouchere normally works very well but in exceptionally bad cases they lose till table limit or bankroll. They are kind of semi-martingale with same kinds of outputs and fate in long run.

kingsroulette

It seems I am among very amateure players who rely only upon luck to win.

warrior

lll.             lll -14

lll.             lww+1
lll.             llw+2
lwl.            lll+3
lww.          wll+4
llw.           lww+5
llw.           lwl+6
wlw.         lll+7
llw.          lwl+8
lwl.          lwl+9
w.  -11.   l. +10



kingsroulette

warrior,
    I failed to understand your explanation. Could it be step by step?

rouletteKEY

Quote from: kingsroulette on Jan 11, 11:42 PM 2014
Roulettekey,
        Fibo or labouchere normally works very well but in exceptionally bad cases they lose till table limit or bankroll. They are kind of semi-martingale with same kinds of outputs and fate in long run.

Don't get all worked up... you asked for something that would work and stand a losing streak.

I even brought up the bankroll issue with the FIBO. 

Once you start a progression you need to have the bankroll and intestinal fortitude to play it out...the big losers are those that play a portion of the progression and then chicken out when the big bets come into play.  Can you lose it all?  Of course you can and occassionally you will...it's whether you win more than you lose in the long run that counts.  No guts...no glory.

If you are playing to win and not to just grind out a breakeven result after a long session at some point you need to bet big to win big.  The FIBO won overall without ever being too strained so I threw it out as an example or model for others.  I don't even play EC's because they are difficult to recover from.  The inside bets just make more sense to me.

I'm sure you have your reasons for specifying that every spin must be bet...but in real life with real money the only players I see betting every spin leave all their chips with the croupier.  Just a consistent observation over a couple decades of play...possibly your experience is different.

warrior

It's interesting when someone makes a comment of amateur and then wants to know how it's done.
If a bet can win flat betting on a 50/50 bet and you win 30 to 60 dollars your doing good , or lose 27 dollars after 100 placed bets your doing good because people lose far more then 2.7% betting on inside and out makes no difference.

RouletteMaster

Kingsroulette if you want to win 1 unit and quit after winning that then the challenge makes sense. If you have to play all spins even after winning 1 unit then thuis is rubbish.  What if the first 10 are wins and the last 21 are losses :)

kingsroulette

Quote from: warrior on Jan 13, 10:35 AM 2014
It's interesting when someone makes a comment of amateur and then wants to know how it's done.
If a bet can win flat betting on a 50/50 bet and you win 30 to 60 dollars your doing good , or lose 27 dollars after 100 placed bets your doing good because people lose far more then 2.7% betting on inside and out makes no difference.
I am calling amateur because not seeing any proper answer. None did both conditions. Anybody can reverse engineer a particular condition and "fit" a particular way of playing seeing that.
Quote from: RouletteMaster on Jan 13, 12:41 PM 2014
Kingsroulette if you want to win 1 unit and quit after winning that then the challenge makes sense. If you have to play all spins even after winning 1 unit then thuis is nonsense.  What if the first 10 are wins and the last 21 are losses :)
Get at +1 in both conditions by same technique and it is good enough.

Iguana

This "riddle" is interesting, since it gets to the heart of the question of whether a winning strategy is at all possible. And of course, the specific sequence of the 10 wins and 21 losses should be irrelevant to a "winning" strategy. I think that anyone looking for the "perfect" strategy should take rather extreme losing sequences such as the one Kingsroulette  presented us with and see if they can come up with a strategy that, even if it doesn't come out ahead - will at least greatly reduce the lost amount, no matter HOW the 10 wins/21 losses are distributed in the series.

My feeling with this riddle is that, in order to (almost) ensure a final win, it would be necessary to keep playing, and NOT to stop after the 31 spins. After all, we all know that a day of losses is often "balanced out" by a day of wins, so the answer could lie in continuing to play, but using a larger betting unit upon continuing.

Yesterday, for example (at BV), I encountered the following sequence of L/W:

LLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLWLLLWLWLWWLWL (31 spins). To stop here would be suicide, no matter what strategy you use: I mean, 24 losses as opposed to only 7 wins???!

LLLWLWLWLLLWWLWLWWLL  8 wins, 12 losses.

So the question here would be: Is there a progression/strategy that would ensure, in the second series, enough of a gain that it would not only negate the losses in that series, but also recover a significant amout from the previous series, which could be viewed as that "series from Hell" that will eventually come up if you play long enough?

I'm curious to see what others come up with here!


kingsroulette

nobody will answer because nobody have an an answer. They would merely "surrender" in such cases.

ddarko

Quote from: kingsroulette on Jan 27, 11:21 PM 2014
nobody will answer because nobody have an an answer. They would merely "surrender" in such cases.

But let me guess, you have an answer ... Kingsroulette

O0

kingsroulette

GLC,
         Do u have any suggestion? You are the most prolific writer and debater of progressions. I thought that at least one among so many members could do anything.

amk

Unfortunately GLC has retired.

Skakus

I tried to solve this riddle but failed miserably. Surrender is the best I could do to perhaps lose the battle but not the war.

I think the only one who could solve this MM riddle is Albalaha, but I believe he is banned here.  ;)

Therefore Kingsroulette, if you really want this answered, you would do better to post your riddle on the betselection.cc forum where Albalaha is still and active member. He alone can help you.

Cheers.
::)
A ship moored in the harbour is safe, but that's not what ships are made for.

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