Colby's Dozen Grind

[Colbster]

Using your same spins, I came to a +34 by the same time Dozen 3 got to +21 using my progression.  I spun 18 max for 1 spin and 14 for 2 spins, everything else was lower than that.  Max drawdown was 70 and lowest bankroll was -62.  This appears to be safer on the bottom side and score higher profits than the GLAT.  Nice to compare side-by-side like this.  Thanks for the data, Atlantis!

[atlantis]

No problem. Hope it helps. Good to see your result is better, Colbster!
A.

[SamNL]

Hello Colbster,

I was wondering what kind of BR u would recommend for playing this?

[Colbster]

I have only had 1 drawdown of 100 units so far. I'm thinking a trailing stop loss of 100 off the high. Session br 100, win goal 50

[Colbster]

Continued testing

Spins 151
Bets 147

Ending balance +53 units
Profit per spin 0.361 units

Lowest balance -4
Greatest drawdown 25
Highest bet made 5 units

[Nathanael]

This is still a pretty solid looking system to me.  I have noticed that every session would have won flat betting also.  That means that it should also win with a progression.  What that tells me is that the bet selection is very good.

The first time we get a session that has a lot more losses than 2:1 we'll see what to expect on a bad day.

I've done some testing using 1 1 1 instead of 1 1 2.  It still wins and of course it keeps the drawdowns smaller, but a person will have to decide if it's worth the fewer units won for the lessened risk.

[Nathanael]

I went to the session in reply #16 starting at row 101 and ending with row 211 we had 110 spins where we were in the hole.  There were 78 losses and only 33 wins.  A flat bet would have lost 12 units but with the progression it was able to get back to even.  This does show the power of this progression.  And a draw down of 107 units isn't outrageous.  Maybe 200 unit stop loss would be reasonable?

[Colbster]

Further testing - This session was a good test of the limits of this system and the B/R discussion

Total spins: 152
Total bets: 150

Ending balance: +47 units
Profit per bet: 0.3133 units

Max Drawdown: 91 units
Lowest B/R balance: -78
Highest bet made: 24 (3 times, each hit which drastically helped the recovery speed)

I had 48 wins, 102 losses this session.  It was ever so slightly less than expected.  Flat betting would have us at -6 units for this round.  My recommendation earlier in the thread was for a 100 unit B/R,while Nathaniel suggested 200.  Mine would have covered it, but just.  Had I not had the three wins on max bet, I would have had a harder time of it and my 100 might not have cut it.  To each their own on risk/reward, but I think that both 100 and 200 are reasonable considering the strength of recovery this shows, the few large drawdowns experienced, and the not-a-loss-yet situation.  More efficient testing (bot) could help with the discussion here.

[Colbster]

Forgot to attach 

[Buffster]

Colbster

Been running some tests to gather some stats.

Your best bet using your method is to wait for 2 appearances of a dozen in last 3 and bet on that dozen to hit on the next spin.

In tests of 250 spins each. Usually around 155 chances to bet resulting in around 105 wins.

On a No Zero wheel.


Hope this info helps.


B

[Colbster]

Can you verify that that is correct?  105 wins out of 155?  We only would expect 51 or 52, but you say it is double that? /Passes out 
Even flat betting, that has us +160 on 155 bets. /Passes out again

Now to the purpose of my original post, which is another reality check on this method which passes, but just.

Total spins: 175
Total bets: 173

Total units won: 20
Profits per bet: 0.116

Total wins: 58, almost exactly the expected value

Highest drawdown: 119
Lowest B/R: -100
Largest bet: 18 (1 spin)

This session had 2 sets of spins that turned against us, yet the method managed to return to a new high as in the past.  The worst of the turns began on spin 74 and lasted 103 spins.  During these 103 spins, we won 33 times, nearly the expect.  This includes the recovery, though, with the drawdown only having 22 wins over the course of 84 spins, drastically below the expected value.  Playing with my suggested rule of a rolling 100 unit stop loss, this session would have been a bust.  Playing with my suggested bankroll of 100 would also have been a bust.  I was close on both, but either would have turned this winning session into a 100 unit loss.  Going forward, I am accepting Nathanael's suggestion of 200.

All of that said, this was a successful set of spins, twice reversing the negative trend and only climbing to a bet one time of 18 spins (there were a couple 16s in there as well, but nothing terrible).  To my way of thinking, this is manageable risk. 

[atlantis]

Thanks for the latest, Colbster.
@Buffster - Hope that is right about the 2 out of 3!  Sounds a bit like the ignatus method (bet same doz after it hit twice - but bet once only)

A.

[Buffster]

Colbster

Even I found it was very high, so I rechecked my formulas and lo and behold ( My bad ) .... it's actually around 50-60.

Sorry for getting your hopes up...but still a very good system. Just have to figure out the sweet spot.


B

[Colbster]

Another solid session

Total spins: 150
Total bets: 147

Total profit: 46 units
Total profit per bet: 0.313 units

Highest drawdown: 59 units
Lowest B/R: -29 units
Highest bet: 12 units (3 spins)

[Colbster]

Tough start, awesome recovery!

Spins: 150
Bets: 147
Total profits: 48 units

Profits per spin: 0.327 units

Max drawdown: 100
Lowest B/R: -98
Highest bet: 22 (1 spin), followed by 12 (1 spin)

The 100-unit drawdown solidifies Nathanael's 200-unit suggestion.  This didn't touch anywhere near 200, but 200 gives enough wiggle room to get right.  The drawdown came early this session, with only 13 wins during the first 52 spins.  Despite the early losses, it recovered easily and was off to the races!