Colby's Dozen Grind

[atlantis]

Hi Colbster,
This is indeed interesting. Please keep us posted of your progress/results. Fingers crossed.
A.

[Colbster]

Here is a reality-check session.  It took some real work to get back after a significant drawdown of 107 units.  The lowest point of the session was -46 units.  Max bet was 22 units and I had to bet those 22 units a total of 4 spins.

Spins: 210
Net profit: 61 units
Profit per spin: 0.29 units per spin

Here's the problem with this session - I reached that max profit at spin 99.  I then fought with random for a total of 111 spins to get back even.  It did recover as expected and considering I was betting 22 units at one point, the max drawdown of 107 isn't that steep.  The safety brake did exactly what it was supposed to do, spreading out the losses and keeping the bets way down in comparison to the previous iteration of this method which would have gotten completely out of control if I had played it prior to the changes.  As I stated earlier, this does put this method back into the "grind" category, which many players do not have the interest in playing.

[ugly bob]

I like the idea behind it Colbster 

The strike rate was 35% in your 211 spin sample above.

So your bet selection is holding out as well which means it's all good.

I suppose the only downside is when you hit a long run from hell which maybe only returns a 20% S/R.

BUT....put a stop-loss in there which you might only hit every so often and it looks sweet!!

[Nathanael]

As with all negative expectation games, we must have parameters to guard against really bad win/loss series.  They are possible and can happen any time.  We must be prepared for one at all times.  The critical factor is a stop loss.  The consideration with a stop loss is how big.  Big ones happen rarely, but when they do, ouch!  Smaller ones happen more frequently and if they come in clusters, ouch!

[ugly bob]

As with all negative expectation games, we must have parameters to guard against really bad win/loss series.  They are possible and can happen any time.  We must be prepared for one at all times.  The critical factor is a stop-loss.  The consideration with a stop-loss is how big.  Big ones happen rarely, but when they do, ouch!  Smaller ones happen more frequently and if they come in clusters, ouch!

It's a good point!

The STAR progression that I have been looking at again lately runs a couple of recovery sessions after a loss by upping the ante each time in an effort to recoup the losses and show a profit.

So you could start a recovery session by just doubling the base unit and work from there. (same idea really as in Silverthorne's Neural Strategy 2)

But any consecutive cluster of losses like Nathanael says could end in a wipe out.

My personal preference would be to use a kind of positive progression if you are getting enough back to back winning sessions and then revert back to base on a loss and try and build up again.

[atlantis]

Hi colbster,

How about GRINDING with safety GLAT progression below...?

The GLAT system single doz
=============
Each line I will call a set of W/L's.


1.  W   Ends set.  If at a new profit, reset to 1 unit else stay at same bet size and start a new set.


2. LW   Ends Set.  If at a new profit, reset to 1 unit else stay at same bet size and start a new set.


3. LLW   Ends set.  Neutral set.  No bet size change.  Start a new set.


4.  LLLW  Ends set.  -1  Very small loss, so start a new set at same bet size.


5.  LLLLW  Ends set.  -2  Getting into losses, so play next set at +1 unit added to bet size.


6.  LLLLL...W  The 1st W ends set.  Number of L's = 5 or more.  This will keep bet sizes from escalating when we hit our sleeping dozen.  As soon as we have a Win it ends this set and we increase our bet size by +1 unit for next set.


These 6 sets should cover every possibility.  Sets 1 & 2 are our winning sets.


If you find yourself betting a large bet size and you have a few wins in a row, you might consider decreasing your bet size but not all the way back to 1 rather than staying at the same level just in case you're about to go into another losing series.

Regards,
A.

[Colbster]

Atlantis,

I enjoyed your idea and re-ran the 210 spins to see how it fared.  I never adjusted my betting, as I couldn't come up with a fast rule about when it might be appropriate to regress and how much.  As I got losses of 4 or more before a win, a grew my bets by 1 unit.  Any 3 losses or less before a win would stay at the same level.

Max betting level: 9
Largest drawdown: 85
Lowest balance: -47
Ending balance: 14
Highest balance: 38 (at spin #99, exactly as in my original method).

In comparison, without firm rules on how to decrease bets (which also reduces speed of recovery), the methods are fairly similar in results.  Your greatest drawdown of 85 was just a little off my 107.  Your max bet was considerably smaller (9 vs. 22), but the recovery wasn't complete at the end of the 111 spins after the high.  Additionally, the high came in about half of my 61 and the 14 ending balance after 210 spins wasn't as compelling.

This is where we get to the nuances of how much safety do we want vs. how much potential profit is enough to justify the risk.  Maybe you can point me in a direction on dropping the bets that might juice your idea a little.  I would love to keep max drawdowns at a minimum!  Love the feedback on this, btw! 

[Nathanael]

Here are your spins playing GLAT.

[ugly bob]

Here is another dozen bet selection idea that you could try with this MM plan.

It tracks dozens and columns at the same time.

Have a look at the dozens first!

5 doz 1
9 doz 1
27 doz 3  (dozen 2 is missing)

That means we work with the 1+3 as long as the 2 stays missing.

If the next dozen out is dozen 3..it has repeated = SAME.

If the next dozen out is dozen 1..it has went opposite = OPP.

We always back for a repeat of either SAME or OPP depending on what's trending.

The missing dozen appearing would of course = a loss.

I notice the losing strings are not so severe if you use both dozens and columns and look for the strongest trend.

[Kattila]

Hi guys , I enjoy at this party with my own way to play this, a real grinder but maybe more safer.
The reset option ( reset to 1 unit) is your own decision also target to win and stop lose.
I don t bet every spin, i use triggers, possitive progression (see excel )

[Colbster]

I'll add another session to the mix, this one was very pretty until BetVoyager crapped out on me 

Total spins: 135
Total bets: 132
Ending balance: +44 units
Profit per spin: 0.3333 units per spin

Max drawdown: 20
Lowest bankroll: -5
Highest bet made: 6 units (twice)
Average bet made: 1.94

[agesta]

Hi!
Just a thought.
same betselecton ,then use 1 unit until win lock if you are up or down in units.
If you are down add 1 unit and play 2 units until win, again lock if you are up or down.
if you are same or in + reduce to 1 unit or down play with 3 units until win and so on
In test i have reached 30 units in about 60 spins with max 6 units in play.
As i said just a thought.
agesta

[agesta]

Hi!
Just a thought.
same betselecton ,then use 1 unit until win lock if you are up or down in units.
If you are down add 1 unit and play 2 units until win, again lock if you are up or down.
if you are same or in + reduce to 1 unit or down play with 3 units until win and so on
In test i have reached 30 units in about 60 spins with max 6 units in play.
As i said just a thought.
agesta

I just did a few more tests.
4 sessions with 50 spins each,
1. +13
2.+14
3.+24
4+13
up 6 units in progression a couple of times
agesta

[Nathanael]

Hi!
Just a thought.
same betselecton ,then use 1 unit until win lock if you are up or down in units.
If you are down add 1 unit and play 2 units until win, again lock if you are up or down.
if you are same or in + reduce to 1 unit or down play with 3 units until win and so on
In test i have reached 30 units in about 60 spins with max 6 units in play.
As i said just a thought.
agesta

Agesta,  This is Oscar's Grind applied to dozens.  GLC has adapted this bet location to the Full Trioplay method.  It helps control really bad sequences.  The basic progression works most of the time, but bad runs WILL come around occasionally.  We need some way to keep from getting too much invested in a draw down.

Nate

[atlantis]

This is interesting...

Here are three vidclips I made using SAME real casino number spinfile.
Each vid shows betting same dozen EACH SPIN until profit of +20 using a progression.

Dozen 1:
Roulette: Dozen Test 1 (of 3)

Dozen 2:
Roulette: Dozen Test 2 (of 3)

Dozen 3:
Roulette: Dozen Test 3 (of 3)

Doz 1 sleeps the most and requires the longest time and highest steps to make profit.
It is a question of sticking with the doz until the turnaround comes.

Doz 2 and 3 achieve the target much sooner and with lower betting.

Progression used is: original GLAT.

Regards,
A.