To sum it up...

[probasah]

My thoughts for today...

1. Randomness seeks IMBALANCE more than balance (20 reds and 1 black in 21 spins, next bet on RED)
2. Use Lanky progression
3. GUT Strategy
4. Seeking a good 4 numbers strategy (inside bets)
5. Watching W/L history

Variance is the beast to kill. Can this beast be killed or is it immortal?

Alex

[Steve]

Random doesnt seek anything. It is just cause and effect. Understanding the cause and effect is what everyone needs to focus on.

Variance can be "tamed" if you have sufficient accuracy of predictions.

[Turner]

No matter how clever your idea, or system, or VB or Maths or AP you are left with the same thing every time

Will it do it this time? or will it continue against it for a bit longer.

SD 3 Regress To Mean, betting repeats, dominant diamonds, what ever.

Just my view

[GARNabby]

My thoughts for today...

1. Randomness seeks IMBALANCE more than balance (20 reds and 1 black in 21 spins, next bet on RED)

Quite true, but it's those imbalances which even out!

[Steve]

If you mean "uncertainty", yes it is everywhere. It is always a possibility that I'll be hit by a car today, but perhaps a remote possibility.

With roulette, you can have a strong advantage with a roulette computer, but there is still always the chance I will lose, at least over the short term. Anything can happen short term.

This "uncertainty" puts a lot of people off advantage play. Instead they seek some perfectly mechanical system and that is BLACK AND WHITE. I know, because I was one of these people for many years.

Life is never black and white. Neither is winning roulette or making money in any way.

But that doesnt mean there arent easy and viable enough methods to win. This is what advantage play is.

Really I try to help people understand this, but most players still look at that black and white way of winning. And they waste their life on it. If they understood the basic facts about winning at any casino game, they would understand WHY they are wasting their time, and WHY their methods simply cannot work.

I'm not speaking about anyone directly. There just appears to be two classes of people on roulette forums. It is people that understand what can work and why, and those that dont understand yet or perhaps keep looking for the black and white method.

It depends on what your goals are.

1. If you want to make money: stick with what works. Many people have already done the work for you. Many methods will work under reasonable conditions.

2. If you want to make money with some black and white system: chances are you will waste your time, and end up losing money

3. If you do it for fun with a remote hope of "cracking the holy grail": then have fun but when you understand WHY a method wont work, you'll probably feel silly for giving the casino your hard earned money. I mean if you are going to have fun while trying to crack the "code", THEN TRY SOMETHING NEW. Most people go in circles.

Speaking of "certainty", most people are "certain" to lose. Sure you can have short term luck. I'm talking about long term loss from random betting. And thats basically what "systems" do - random betting, because there is no justified foundation, or link between the "bet selection" and "winning numbers". ie they dont increase accuracy of predictions.

[Steve]

Garnabby you need to forget about the balance thing. consider this....

There are two players at a table. They both wait until there are 10 reds in a row.

Player 1 says: "Ooh, red is on a streak. I'll bet red next".

Player 2 says: "Ooh, black must be due. I'll bet black next."

Who is more likely to win?

They are just as likely as each other.

Here's proof. Test a billion spins, and look for instances where there are 10 reds in a row. Then look at how many times red or black spins next. Try repeating the test as many times as you like.

What you will find is red and black have an equal chance of spinning next.

------------------

Now consider doing the same thing, but in a situation where over 10,000 spins, there are 4000 reds and 6000 blacks. Let’s say you bet red until there is a “more balanced” distribution.....

So you bet for thousands of time on red. Does this at all change the fact that the probability of red is exactly the same as black? NO, NOT EVEN REMOTELY.

------------------

Now consider if you added a betting progression in the mix. You are not betting to cover losses. All you are doing is making different sized bets on completely separate events.

------------------

This is the reality of playing roulette. And I waste many hours explaining it. Why? Only to help people so they don’t waste time. It is sincerely not for my gain. Anyway, anyone reading can make p their own mind about whether or not these are facts about roulette you can bypass.

link:://:.roulettephysics.com/why-most-players-lose/

[MrJ]

*SOMEWHERE* in REPEATS.........is the answer, believe me.

I/we need VERY STRICT rules of play AND not betting many numbers, 2-3.

Ken

[Steve]

Ken, yes history does indeed repeat itself. I agree with you on that.

[Turner]

Ken...its not just the repeats themselves...the repeats are indications of imbalance short term...and there are other things to look for during those short term periods

[Skakus]

*SOMEWHERE* in REPEATS.........is the answer, believe me.

I/we need VERY STRICT rules of play AND not betting many numbers, 2-3.

Ken

Repeats are a good focal point but not enough in themselves.

To tame the ‘variance beast’ and take the hill, you need to get one foot in front of repeats by including some form of preemptive strike, thereby anticipating future repeats. Together they stand a chance of taming the beast, sometimes.

At times the ‘variance beast’ will be too strong even for this double team. That’s when you need to get creative and bring some flanking strategy into the action.

As for 2 or 3 numbers max, forget it. It might be a good place to start, but more often than not you will need more troops to take the hill and tame the beast.

[Turner]

Thats Skakus...fresh back from a metaphor training course..

[GARNabby]

Ken, yes history does indeed repeat itself. I agree with you on that.

I think that Ken's on the "right" track.  I mean that in the sense of accomplishing something other than by the same old mundane brute force.

Eventually, in the next 100 years, there will be technical ways to profitably (, compared to using such technology in more meaningful ways,) bother with roulette.

But answers and popularity are the catch of death.  How often have we heard rich old persons lament that the best time of their lives was before they became rich?  And the ones who are still poor exclaim that the next K-Mart short cut to riches remains a pension cheque away.  (Even if the old geezers hit a jackpot, not only do they not recoup all those short cuts, but they can no longer really enjoy any of it.)

True heroes follow different paths.

[GARNabby]

Thats Skakus...fresh back from a metaphor training course..

suka*S (backwards) is the (head) instructor.

[Turner]

How often have we heard rich old persons lament that the best time of their lives was before they became rich? 

I miss the hungry years, The once upon a time
The lovely long ago, We didn't have a dime

Neil Sedaka

[GARNabby]

Testing one, two, three. Is there an echo in here, here, here?  Anybody?

I bet that Victor misses the "good old times" when there were 100's of posters instead of a bunch of sanatorial echos.