Is it possible a parlay is a silly bet?

[GLC]

I have mentioned many times on this forum that my favorite progression is the flat bet parlay.  The way it is played is to always start with 1 unit and let it ride (parlay) until you win enough to reach a new high bank amount.  An option is to limit the number of parlays and go for multiple wins to reach a new high bank.

I was lying in bed this morning and the idea came to me that there might be a better way to play this.  Here's my logic.  If a parlay bet wins, than all you have to do is wait and bet the last bet and you'll be a winner.  This makes sense because if you lose that last bet, you lose everything.  If you win that last bet, you win everything.

Let's take 2 wins in a row (boffins bet) as an example.  For a trigger, we'll use the Win3Million model of waiting until we have 2 or more of a color and then a change.  At this point we bet the penultimate color for 1 unit.  If we win, we let the 2 units ride.  If we win the second bet, we will be up 3 units.  The progression recommended is 1-2-3-4-5-6-7.

Now we can skip the 1st bet and if it would have won, we can make the 2nd bet.  We can just bet 1 unit for the 2nd bet.  If it wins, we are +1.  If it loses, we are -1.  The advantage is that we don't make the 1st bet which means we don't lose anything when the 1st bet loses.  With the boffins bet, we lose 1 unit if we lose either the 1st or the 2nd bet.  With what I'm suggesting, you only lose 1 unit if you would have won the 1st bet and lost the 2nd bet.

This would hold true for any parlay.  If we were playing a 4 step parlay (1=2=4=8=16) and we waited until we had won 3 times in a row before we made a 1 unit flat bet, if we would have been a winner with the parlay, we will be a winner with our 1 unit bets.

Am I delirious or is this logic correct?

GLC

[ugly bob]

Am I delirious or is this logic correct?

I think the only difference is you will only win one unit on the second bet as opposed to two units on the second bet if you had placed one unit on the first bet and it won.

It's an independent event. So are you betting one unit or two units for a 50/50 chance of winning either one unit or two units.

The first spin is irrelevant if we are talking about logic. At least in my opinion.

George,

Speaking of parlays...did you read about the shared parlay and perfect unit idea in ''The Future Gambler'' by Craig Greiner?

If you have not, I will happily upload it. You might find it interesting.

cheers

[GLC]

I think the only difference is you will only win one unit on the second bet as opposed to two units on the second bet if you had placed one unit on the first bet and it won.

It's an independent event. So are you betting one unit or two units for a 50/50 chance of winning either one unit or two units.

The first spin is irrelevant if we are talking about logic. At least in my opinion.

George,

Speaking of parlays...did you read about the shared parlay and perfect unit idea in ''The Future Gambler'' by Craig Greiner?

If you have not, I will happily upload it. You might find it interesting.

cheers

Can't say that I've seen anything on a shared parlay and perfect unit idea.  Please upload.  I'm always interested in a new idea. 

Thanks,
GLC

[GLC]

Here's an example of how I thought it might make a difference.  Let's say we lose 5 1st bets before we finally win a parlay.   That's -5 units for the losses and +3 for the parlay win for a net of -2.  Whereas, if we were only betting 1 unit after a winning bet (this would be the parlay portion of our boffins bet), we would not have bet the 5 units that lost and when a 1st bet finally won, we would be prepared to bet 1 unit on the 2nd bet which would net us +1 for the series.  From -2 to +1 is a 3 unit swing.

I don't see how we can lose if we only bet the 2nd bet.  We would only be losing 1 unit on a 2nd bet loss whereas with the original way, we would be losing on both the 1st bet losses and a win-loss sequence as well. 

The only way I can see coming out worse off with the 2nd bet is if there are a lot of double wins close together which will be netting us +3 units if we bet the boffins bet and only +1 if we skip the 1st bet and only bet 1 unit on the 2nd bet.

I suppose the math guys will point out that no matter what we do, the house still has a 2+% advantage.

I'm still thinking about all the implications so any insight will be gladly listened to.

GLC

[Wally Gator]

I like it, George.

So, the nemesis of this is a 2, then a 1, then a 2 and 1 again, etc.....?