Lets have a REAL HOLY GRAIL DISCUSSION!!!

[36kid]

HOLY GRAIL, HOLY GRAIL, HOLY GRAIL!!!!

Every single person who visits this site does so in the hope that they will find on here some gem of information which will help them to beat roulette. and not just beat once, but consistantly over and over again.. Some miracle system which will make sure they never lose again. Or just some aspect which when considered will eliminate losses... Either way, Everyone is searching for the proverbial "Holy Grail" of Roulette so that they can WIN.

NOBODY COMES HERE JUST TO LOOK. WE ARE ALL TRYING TO FIND WAYS TO BE BETTER AT THE GAME, RIGHT??

So what happens if somebody actually does find this elusive "Holy Grail"? Would this be good or bad?


There are many things to consider here, and as someone to whom finding the HG has become a full obsession, i wonder to myself what would happen if i actually found the answer?

What would it really mean? What would the consequences be of it being discovered?

i personally believe that if someone were to find the HG then there is a possibility of life as we all know it significantly changing....
id like to proposed a timeline and ask for feedback and further discussion on the topic as a whole...

So..

1. Holy Grail Found.. The discovery provides insights to solutions for problems in Chaos theory, and computational complixity.
2. Therefore the discoverer has an obligation, duty to release the matierial for the benefit of alll.
3. The discoverer would also want the prestige and fame that comes with the discovery..
4. The Grail is released. Everybody knows the secret.
5. The casinos have to change the game or abolish it.
6. Either way, change or abolishment will lead to financial loss for the casinos.
7. Statistically, roulette counts toward a significant percentage of the gambling industrys revenue.. With the profits now non existant or drastically reduced, this must have a knock on effect for local, and national economies with regards to taxes paid by casinos, job and income losses, etc....
8. What further impacts would it have?

Given the the above, would it not be right to say that actually the HOLY GRAIL for which we seek, is actually a PANDORAS BOX of great destruction?
Alternantively the finder of the grail could just keep it a secret and get filthy rich while not giving a damn about what its meaning could mean for the world? 

I am really interested to hear any thoughts any of you may have on the topic..

Please, please please, lets not turn this into a discussion of whether the HG exists or not? For the purposes of this discussion, lets just assume that it does... 

[Proofreaders2000]

Ok, I'll bite

First off the Holy Grail means different things to different people.

Me personally, I had an even-chance go to 18 consecutive blacks.  The world record I understand is 36 of a consecutive color so we could wait for 35 consecutive even chances (which may take a lifetime).

There's John Legend's version--(paraphrase) try to find something that is hard for random.
And thus you have his "Pattern Breaker-Filler, etc.

Then there's the Advantage Play crowd who looks for a bias in the wheel and monitors drop points and rotor speed.

There is the numerology crowd who believes in reverse numbers, etc.

Jack Kennedy and the wheel neighbor color strategy.

Winkel and his GUT

Steve Morgan's six of the same dozen bet the other two strategy.

Mr J.s 2-4 number max strategies (and the fabled $19,000 he made in one session)

*As you can see, it's different things to different people.

[36kid]

OK.. Thanks for being the first to post on this..  I agree. The term Holy Grail is thrown about so much that many people abuse it for the glory of claiming they have found "THE HOLY GRAIL"..
I believe that there are some great systems out there that win short and long term, but there are none with the depth of consistancy to make all roulette players suddenly adopt it and forsake all others... With the greatest of respect for all those system designers you mention and all you didnt, ANY SYSTEM THAT IS IN THE PACK AND NOT AHEAD OF IT IS NOT THE HOLY GRAIL...


However, it is my firm belief that there is ONE SINGLE ABSOLUTE HOLY GRAIL.
A method that it is absolutely unbeatable, even if the casino tried to cheat.... 
A way soo simple to play that even a child could do it....

A TRUE SOLUTION, which allows anyone to be a master a roulette...

That would be, THE REAL HOLY GRAIL!!

SO THE QUESTION IS, IF SUCH A THING EXISTED AND WAS MADE PUBLIC WHAT WOULD HAPPEN...?
WOULD THINGS PLAY OUT SIMILARLY TO MY TIMELINE ABOVE? OR DIFFERENTLY?


Apologies for the capitals. I hit caps and just went for it... 

[ddarko]

1. Holy Grail Found.. The discovery provides insights to solutions for problems in Chaos theory, and computational complixity.

If it's "A way soo simple to play that even a child could do it...."  why would a computer be needed ?

2. Therefore the discoverer has an obligation, duty to release the matierial for the benefit of alll.

No, no they don't....

3. The discoverer would also want the prestige and fame that comes with the discovery..

Not if he/she is smart they wouldn't, not everyone is looking for those 15 mins of fame


4. The Grail is released. Everybody knows the secret.

DON'T DO THAT !!!!!!

5. The casinos have to change the game or abolish it.

Not if you won small amounts regularly, and say lost a bit on purpose from time to time ?

6. Either way, change or abolishment will lead to financial loss for the casinos.

They would struggle to change the game if the HG was an EC bet would they not ?


7. Statistically, roulette counts toward a significant percentage of the gambling industrys revenue.. With the profits now non existant or drastically reduced, this must have a knock on effect for local, and national economies with regards to taxes paid by casinos, job and income losses, etc....

Odds on the average punter would still get drunk & bet what's hot or birthdays/anniversary's 

8. What further impacts would it have?

It would have little to no impact if the opposite of your 8 points above were done. Get a small team together, say a dozen or so. Move around the world winning small but consistent amounts trying to stay under the radar. All give say 15% of your winnings to charity. You & your friends get rich AND make the world a better place !!!!

[Kingspin]

There can never be a holy grail , any one who thinks there may be one is in for a disappointment , take away the 0 's and it would still be impossible to find a holy grail ,add the 0's and it becomes a no brainer - it's totally , completely impossible. To beat the wheel you need measuring devices like computers to compute likely landing area of ball. The (0's 00) usa roulette is even harder to beat.     Any holy grail  even if it was possible would be complex  and a massive bankroll would be needed.

[RouletteKnight]

I have a system that comes out a good winner after 20,000 placed bets. But after that it tanked, maybe after some adjustments it can be a holy grail?

[ati]

No, that was probably just luck. Last week I ran a simulation of a simple system, with a 10000 units starting roll, and it survived 870k spins, then it froze. That doesn't mean that's a winning system. It just survived, didn't make good profit, and it would probably bust most of the times if I ran the simulation again.

On topic, it has been discussed before, and almost everyone agreed that they would not share the holy grail. I know I wouldn't, maybe after I won enough money (millions), and could invest in other stuff.

[Badger]

Card counting was the holy grail for blackjack,
If you want to know what would happen if someone published a roulette holy grail,
look no further than blackjack. I would say that Thorpe made a lot off money for himself
by publishing the grail, but he spoiled it for the people who were using card counting to
make a living.

[36kid]

1. Holy Grail Found.. The discovery provides insights to solutions for problems in Chaos theory, and computational complixity.

If it's "A way soo simple to play that even a child could do it...."  why would a computer be needed ?

2. Therefore the discoverer has an obligation, duty to release the matierial for the benefit of alll.

No, no they don't....

3. The discoverer would also want the prestige and fame that comes with the discovery..

Not if he/she is smart they wouldn't, not everyone is looking for those 15 mins of fame


4. The Grail is released. Everybody knows the secret.

DON'T DO THAT !!!!!!

5. The casinos have to change the game or abolish it.

Not if you won small amounts regularly, and say lost a bit on purpose from time to time ?

6. Either way, change or abolishment will lead to financial loss for the casinos.

They would struggle to change the game if the HG was an EC bet would they not ?


7. Statistically, roulette counts toward a significant percentage of the gambling industrys revenue.. With the profits now non existant or drastically reduced, this must have a knock on effect for local, and national economies with regards to taxes paid by casinos, job and income losses, etc....

Odds on the average punter would still get drunk & bet what's hot or birthdays/anniversary's

8. What further impacts would it have?

It would have little to no impact if the opposite of your 8 points above were done. Get a small team together, say a dozen or so. Move around the world winning small but consistent amounts trying to stay under the radar. All give say 15% of your winnings to charity. You & your friends get rich AND make the world a better place !!!!

Definately the best response so far...
1. a system that can beat roulette consistantly would have to defy the laws of probability and also physics... To me, that would be a great discovery. Surely new insights into mathematics and science could be achieved from a true holy grail which could have some applications in the real world?
i didnt mean that youd need a computer to use it. Roulette is basically a random deterministic system where consistantly winning is said to be impossible. this makes it an NP hard problem right? so by showing an algorithm that could beat roulette, you would also be on the road to finding a solution to P=NP. Given what could come of a solution to that problem, the decision to share becomes one based on desire for  personal wealth vs wealth and upliftment of all humanity. Which would you choose..?

Consider the following....
To beat roulette on an expected winnings basis would mean one of the following:
1. A math error somehow slipped past all the casino analysts, etc., very unlikely at this point, no bearing on P=NP.
2. Probability theory is flawed, also unlikely and difficult to imagine, but something like that could call anything we've achieved by deductive logic into question, mabe even moving problems that had been proven P into NP and vice versa or rendering the definitions meaningless, etc.
3. The probabilities of roulette outcomes are computed based on more relevant knowledge than is currently modeled.  E.g., maybe a machine could analyze the casino employee's brain waves before spinning the wheel and determine some outcomes are more likely than others.  This would require some advances in chaos theory which conceivably would render NP problems less useful even in the case that P=NP is false, but I don't see a clear reason to expect such techniques to solve P=NP. Still, more understanding generally means more chance to stumble upon something useful in solving any open problem of mathematics.
4. Time travel.  Naturally if you can glimpse the future and see outcomes you can win roulette.  In a sense, you could also consider all computational problems solveable in constant time from the point of view of a person that can start an algorithm of any complexity and see the output from the distant future at the time of his choosing.  There would still be an open mathematical question of P=NP from the frame of reference of the machine doing the computation, and there would still be practical value in computing with less energy requirements and machine maintenance over eons of future time.  If P=NP ever does get solved then I guess we get to see the solution very shortly after discovering time travel.

to adress your other points..
2. given the above id say there is an obligation. Could you imagine what our world would be like if Einstien didnt share E=mc2?
3. again given the above, i think that the discoverer of the answer to a 300 yr old problem goes down immortalised in history. i think 15 mins would be more like 15 decades...
4. i wont... 
#5,6,7 lead on from the assumtion that 4 was done.... 5 obviously a person keeping the HG to themselves would try to stay as low key as possible so, this makes sense, but given #4 this would not happen. so if they couldnt change the game, theyd have to get rid of it in order to not lose money... The average punter is no longer an average punter with access to the HG..

Id say that a true HG would be catastrophic for the game if everybody knew about it.
What you say at point 8 is spot on That would be the best way to exploit a HG for personal gain and in turn help others.
Now if only i could get my hands on the damn thing everything would be great!!

[MrJ]

"Id say that a true HG would be catastrophic for the game if everybody knew about it" >>> I dont care if MANY roulette players heard of or witnessed a great method, over and over again........most, still would not play it even if it was a "HG". (imo).

Ken

[36kid]

Seriously...? So youre trying to say that the majority of people who play roulette assumedly with the view to make money, when given a method that will guarantee thier success in that endevour would turn thier back on it? What are you basing your statement on? If youve been following the thread you would know that im not talking about some run of the mill HG, im talking about a hypothetical undisputed and unbeatable HOLY GRAIL. Are you telling me the majority (or as you say most) would not utilise it?

Let me give you two scenarios that may make you rethink your statement...

#1)If i gave you a ATM card and told you that all the money connected to the account was yours and further assured you that you wouldnt be commiting a crime to take as much as you want. What would you do?  Say NO?

#2) You get to the final round of a gameshow and you are guaranteed to take home an amount of cash.
       There are 2 doors for you to choose from. And you are told exactly what is behind each one. You must choose a door and then you will have 30 seconds to "collect" as much cash from the prize pool as you can. Behind both doors is an equal amount of money, EXCEPT, Behind door #A there is $1M in loose coins scattered all over the place. Behind door #B the $1M is neatly packed into briefcases...

Which do you choose? Door #A?

Unfortunately my friend if my belief in human nature is even a little accurate 50%+ of people would take the card or go through door B.
Only someone who did not want the success would choose the opposite. Those types of people by nature are either fearful, extremely doubting or just plain ignorant to the benefit they could gain by taking the easy road.
These are not the type of people i believe we game players are. If we are not playing to win then what the hell are we playing for?
To lose all our money to a faceless entity in the name of entertainment?

No my friend, We all want to be winners!!!

I know in my heart that if someone shows me a better way to do something than what i currently know and taking up this new way will lead to greater benefits for me in whatever sphere of life, i will try to adapt.
Its called Human Nature, Survival of the fittest and all that....
Or am i just on a completely different planet....?

[Proofreaders2000]

Mr. J makes a great point.

Let's say you have $10,000 free and clear (The Grail).  How
many people would trade it for "what's behind door number one"?

(Door number one may have a million dollars behind it or it could just be a penny)

[MrJ]

"im talking about a hypothetical undisputed and unbeatable HOLY GRAIL. Are you telling me the majority (or as you say most) would not utilise it?" >>> Correct and I suppose thats a good thing if we are talking about casinos not closing their doors because of it.

Ken

[36kid]

Mr. J makes a great point.

Let's say you have $10,000 free and clear (The Grail).  How
many people would trade it for "what's behind door number one"?

(Door number one may have a million dollars behind it or it could just be a penny)

Sorry, i dont get the relevance of what youre saying.. Obviously No one would do that! But if you want to use that as a parallel example in response to what i said about the doors then we are more or less saying the same thing:

Behind both doors is the exact same thing but in different forms.

1 million pound coins behind Door A
1 million in briefcases behind Door B

30 seconds to grab as much from behind the door and bring it back to the "keep zone"....
you gonna keep running back and forth scooping up coins off the floor or just go in the other one and chuck the briefcases out...?
You dont know how many of the million coins you could scoop up in 30 second but you damn well know that if theres 8 briefcases you will get close to or all of that money.. Only the recklessly brave or the recklessly foolish (depending on how you look at it) would gamble the $10,000 for whats behind a door they cant see behind. 

But the essence of what we are both saying is that in an instance where a person is guaranteed too make a profit, only a fool would say no ill take chances and keep opening doors.... Right

Which then makes what MrJ said utter nonsense.

"im talking about a hypothetical undisputed and unbeatable HOLY GRAIL. Are you telling me the majority (or as you say most) would not utilise it?" >>> Correct and I suppose thats a good thing if we are talking about casinos not closing their doors because of it.

Sorry mate but youre here on a roulette site where everybody is trying to find a better or the best way to win at the game of roulette, im sure that youve tried many different ways to play in your time as a player or "Rouletteer" ( as i like to call myself ) each time moving on to another way and adapting things to suit your style of play...
Unless of course you are here for other reasons... I can only speculate and assume the intentions of others but you may be one of the ones who would choose not to utilise such a thing but if we put it to a straight YES/NO poll entitled:
IF YOU HAD THE HOLY GRAIL OF ROULETTE WOULD YOU USE IT TO MAKE MONEY?
I think you'd find that you'd be one of a very few people that press the NO button...

However, youre right about non-utilisation being a good thing which is in line with what i said at the beginning of the thread, Casinos closing their doors would have a drastic affect on the world right?

Which then brings me back to my original statement; would it not be right to say that actually the HOLY GRAIL for which we seek, is actually a PANDORAS BOX of great destruction?

[MrJ]

"Sorry mate but youre here on a roulette site where everybody is trying to find a better or the best way to win at the game of roulette, im sure that youve tried many different ways to play in your time as a player or "Rouletteer" ( as i like to call myself  ) each time moving on to another way and adapting things to suit your style of play" >>> Maybe, maybe not. 

Ken