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Abstract experiment.

Started by ego, Aug 01, 01:41 PM 2014

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ego

Aug 01, 01:41 PM 2014
Abstract experiment:

I was thinking about how you could change the probability using the even money bets.
My line of thinking was about roulette and dozen play, because it seems that two dozen always dominate and i wanted to change that into even money bets with the same probability.

I start testing and come up with three states or three clustering sequences with no other possibility.
Then i reckon does has to have the same probability as dozen play.

What i know from the past about dozen play is that 1 dozen can sleep for 32 times in a row and that 2 dozen can hit 32 times in a row.
I also notice that is very common that 2 dozen hit 34567 times in a row on regular basis.

Should also mention that one dozen hit 12 to 13 times in a row during 1 million trails.
So this is the benchmark we dealing with.

So in a nutshell i wanted to capture this fenomen using the even money bets.
But the staking is not the same and the payouts is not the same, but the probability is the same.

Lets say i follow one state to repeat with even money bets, then i get +1 unit.
But if i follow one dozen to repeat with one dozen play bet, then i get +2 units.

Now both has the same probability being 1 in 3 and give me 33% to hit a repeat.
Now lets assume we lose our first bet, then we have two states that show or two dozen.

Lets say we will cover them betting:

Then i need to bet twice to cover the last two states that show with even money bet.
This mean i will break even with +0 if i get one of them states to show or i will get -1 unit (almost break even).

Here above i have 66% to hit or break or almost break even.
But if i lose then all three states show and i will be down -3 units.

If it was dozen and one of the two last dozen show again i would break even +0.
Also 66% probability.
If i would lose, then i would be down -3 units.

That is how it is different.
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

ego

#1
Aug 01, 01:44 PM 2014

The three states:

Lets define them and you only have three possibility - 1 in 3.

1) When two series chop after each other, then you have one state and then can chop many times in a row with any length.

They has to be at least two series that chop after each other.

BB PPP

And as i mention so can they come with any length:

BBB PP BBBB PPP BB

2) The other state is when you get series and singles alternating one each.
This is one present state.

BBB P BBBB

And they can come with any length:

BB P BBB P BBBB P BB

3) The last state is series of singles and they can come with any length.
To be a series of singles you need at least two.

PBP

And they can come with any length:

BPBPBPBP
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

ego

#2
Aug 01, 01:45 PM 2014
Observation:

Here i cut the random states into sequential windows where you can see the domination clear as water.

There is three options:
First is that if you get one state to repeat, then you have domination - 33% probability ...
Second is if you get two states to repeat, then you have domination - 66% probability ...
Last is if you get all three states to show with no present domination.

NOTE:

I don't say you should play this way, this is illustration and education about domination.
I just want to show how the states look like.

LWWWLLWWWLWLLWWLWWLLL
WWWLWWWWLLL
WWWW

See attack file ...
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

ego

#3
Aug 01, 01:46 PM 2014
Tiny, medium and large waves of domination:

Here i cut the random flow into how they unfold with domination with one or two states present.

You can see 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 trails of domination - raw play.
Comparing with three states you can see them hit 5 10 to 20 times in a row.

NOTE:

We need to develop a march to take advantage of the domination.
This is just illustration with example.

LWWLLL
WLWLLWWWWWLWLWWLWLWWWWLWWLLWLWLLL
WWWWWLWLWWWWWWWWWWWWLLL
WWWWLLWWWW
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

ego

#4
Aug 01, 01:50 PM 2014
Flat betting & Progression

I test 2x300 trails flat betting with success.
But i think this method need a recovery progression when the negative expectation hit.



Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

ego

#5
Aug 01, 01:51 PM 2014
This video show the flat betting:

1 in 3 probability flat betting.
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

atlantis

#6
Aug 01, 01:55 PM 2014
Thanks ego. Most interesting if can be played flatbetting for profit....?

A.
Thru the darkness of Future Past the magician longs to see. One chants out between two worlds:
"Fire -- Walk with me!"

nottophammer

#7
Aug 01, 04:39 PM 2014
Hi Ego
You seem to be a math person to me, could this idea be used with 1,4,&7 supa.

These numbers smartlive today about 4pm uk time.

num   1,   4,     7
32            4
15            4
21      1
--------------------
6             4
11      1           
26                    7
----------------------
30      1
23            4
1        1
----------------------
29      1
25                    7
3        1
-----------------------
22            4
26                    7
27                    7
------------------------
29      1
2        1
3        1
------------------------
31            4
20      1
31            4
------------------------
9                      7
3        1
24            4
------------------------
12      1
16                    7
13            4
------------------------
19      1
30      1
16                    7
------------------------
36                    7
35                    7
25                    7
------------------------
8                      7
14            4
25                    7
------------------------
18                    7
28      1
23            4
------------------------
10      1
30      1
27                     7
------------------------
7                       7
17                     7
30      1
------------------------
30      1
22            4
9                       7
-------------------------
9                       7
32            4
3        1
------------------------
26                     7
13            4
18                     7
------------------------
33            4
21       1
34                     7
------------------------
19       1
2         1
4               4
---------------------------
From the above we can see when chance for a dozen or 2 dozen .
is this along the lines of thought
   
How do you win at roulette, simple, make the right decision

nottophammer

#8
Aug 02, 06:55 AM 2014
These numbers smartlive today about 4pm uk time. 1/8/14

num   1,   4,     7
32            4
15            4           bet 1/7
21      1
--------------------
6             4
11      1                  win.   no next bet (the 7 looking interesting,if it had not come in, just go for the 7 with 1,1,2,3,4)         
26                    7                                 
----------------------
30      1
23            4          bet 4/7
1        1
----------------------
29      1
25                    7    win.   now bet 7/4
3        1
-----------------------
22            4
26                    7    win.   now bet 4/1
27                    7
------------------------
29      1
2        1                  win.  now bet 4/7
3        1
------------------------
31            4
20      1                   win.  now bet 1/7  (keep looking back and that 7 missed for 6, now back the 7 with 1,1,2,3,4,etc)
31            4
------------------------
9                      7
3        1                       win.  no next bet
24            4
------------------------
12      1
16                    7   no bet
13            4
------------------------
19      1
30      1                    now bet 7/4
16                    7
------------------------
36                    7
35                    7     win. now bet 1/4   ( now 4 missing, go for the 4 as above)
25                    7
------------------------
8                      7
14            4              win.  now bet  4/1 ( wow look at 1, miss for 7, so now get the 1,as above)
25                    7
------------------------
18                    7
28      1                   win.   no bet
23            4
------------------------
10      1
30      1                   now bet  7/4
27                     7
------------------------
7                       7
17                     7  win.   now bet 1/4  (  4 missing so bet 4 as above 1,1,2,3,4,etc)
30      1         
------------------------
30      1
22            4               win   no next bet
9                       7
-------------------------
9                       7
32            4               no bet
3        1
------------------------
26                     7
13            4             now bet 4/1
18                     7
------------------------
33            4
21       1                    win.  no next bet
34                     7
------------------------
19       1
2         1                  if going to carry on  bet for 4/7
4               4
---------------------------
Sturrok, SAS   :thumbsup:
How do you win at roulette, simple, make the right decision

roulettefan

#9
Aug 02, 02:34 PM 2014
Thank Ego


very good as usual


Best from France :thumbsup:
And the show must goes on
-
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