Kavouras Strategy

[RouletteGhost]

link:://:.x/p/kavouras-bet.html

[ausguy]

The odds make this a rather poor bet choice.

We have a total of 20 numbers covered.  Any loss loses 8 units.

The 0/3 corner bet on a win only pays out +1 unit.

The 6 line/dbl street 31/36 bet pays out only +4 units. So 1/2 the bet numbers need either 8 or 2 wins just to break even on any 8 unit loss.

Any of the 5 splits wins 10 units (8/11,13/14,15/18,17/20,27/30) & so is +2 units up vs any 8 unit loss.

In total we have 27 numbers that either lose or don't pay their way & only 10 numbers that can win +10 units.

A quick mini test of some live dealer spins (single zero wheel) I have will demo how it would go in the real world. NOTE 8 is the base outlay.

34R 8W +4, 16R 8L -4, 10B 8L -12, 15B 8W -2, 29B 8L -10, 22B 8L -18, 5R 8L -26, 3R 8W -25, 9R 8L -33, 13B 8W -23, 27R 8W -13, 5R 8L -21,

17B 8W -11, 21R 8L -19, 29B 8L -27, 25R 8L -36, 11B 8W -26, 34R 8W -22, 19R 8L -30, Z 8W -29, 4B 8L -37, 1R 8W -36, 14R 8W -26, 22B 8L -34. End of mini test.

Overall it ran in negative territory with an ever increasing downward trend. The casino would surely always be the only winner playing with this method ?

As always test it with a variety of spin results & take it from there.   

[RouletteGhost]

Perhaps using a progression with the method would help

[ausguy]

The core problem with the bet strategy is that for the outlay different bets return different amounts which results in losing more than winning.

Some time back someone wrote that if you can't win flat betting than you sure won't win betting a progression ?

As I've already said, test it & see for yourself. Kavorous may be right & I may be wrong ? As my mini test showed it certainly didn't look a winner ?

[iggiv]

this is a  good bet selection to be used in different bet combinations. according to what's goin on on the wheel. if you use it randomly you will lose house edge percentage, if you use the same combination (or only 2 of them) you will lose much more.

[RouletteGhost]

iggiv i was thinking the same thing. you can use the same type of bet but on different locations of the board

[iggiv]

yep. but not randomly. watch for trends. What Kavuras did, was clever calculation of covering larger part of the wheel quickly with smaller  number of chips. Thus making your minimum bankroll smaller. But making your winnings smaller as well.