Progressions and Stop Losses

[rouletteKEY]

It seems lately there is not much middle ground in the chatter between negative progressions that end up "investing" 5000 to earn 1 and flat betting.

Just food for thought here but for a number of years I play most of my attacks kinda like this

I play a slight negative progression with multiple stop loss points...(let me explain)  along with a positive progression

Say I have a bet selection on a single number bet that hits at about the normal expectancy (every 30-40 spins).  Now in this example I am only attacking for 12 spins (stop loss #1...I don't chase) and if was flat betting I need to win on average within 3 attacks.  Now I am also playing this with a Fibo because I intend to actually win money...1 1 2 3 5 8 ...you know the drill.  Now I am at 8u at the end of 2SD...21u at the end of 3.  Still not out of hand.  Now I cap here and play flat till I get a win (call it another stop-loss).  Depending on where I am against the attack (talking about how deep the drawdown is when the 735u win comes I will decide where I re-start the attack.  Back to 1u...stay at 21u...or anywhere in-between.

Then...I also use a positive progression.  Most methods I play seem to group wins.  So even if they average a win every 3 attacks in this case many of the wins are back to back or skip an attack and then come back to a win...but may have some 7-10 attack losing sessions mixed in as well.  So...based on testing and actual play I use a positive progression after a win...maybe boost the base bet by 3-5 times after a win for two more attacks.  After a very long string of losing attacks (with most of my methods anyway) I sometimes get another long sleeper which my exposure is limited because of the 2 attack boost on the positive progression...BUT...most of the time I get two or three quick hits and there's nothing nicer than to get put that positive multiplier into effect and get the win after the first positive progression win...third win...call it a day and get out of Dodge.

Example...standard single number bet for 12 on a Fibo.  1uLose  1uLose  2uLose  3uLose  5uLose  8uWin...now I am up to begin with..but then 5uLose on the positive progression 5uWin on the positive...now we are 3-5 times of the 5u positive progression base bet...so a 15-25u Win on either the first or second attack and we are done for the day...I invested my own money on possibly many attack sequences treading water or making a little change along the way...and then the one big attack I make with earnings will eventually pan out without ever really exposing  a great deal of my own capital in the process.

If your bet selection is solid it works more than it doesn't without ever risking a ton of cash for no return.  Can it burn you...certainly...so you still have to use some common sense...but there are a few things to really consider.

1.  I may have several bets on the table but most are individually 1-3 number bets running concurrently on my log sheet...so I am not betting a ton of numbers
2.  I am never chasing
3.  The progressions never get out of hand
4.  I am playing with sufficient bankroll to ride out a drawdown on the run from hell
5.  I never limit my time at the casino...I am there as long as I NEED to be there...so I am not getting 80% into a drawdown and then have to leave before the wave of wins comes (it will come)
6.  Once I am sufficiently satisfied with my results...I am DONE
7.  Betting a small amount of numbers gives me massive recovery ability...this is almost as important as having good bank
8.  You have to be disciplined...don't get caught up in things happening around you...if your game works...play your game...this does not however mean to be oblivious to other things though
9.  A manageable negative progression keeps you in most bets without really giving a huge risk of ruin and the positive progression gives you an honest chance for meaningful victory
10.  I am still playing for profit in the negative side (decent profit) and will use step backs to enhance while still limiting risk

Just some thoughts...not so sure how you would code any of that into alot of the methods I see proposed but in a real B&M environment it has worked for me for a long time across a myriad of methods.  Try to take the variance out of the game and use what remains to your advantage. 

There's much more to it than what I laid out but since it will only get 50 views I am not spending any more time on it...just sitting here with blood shooting out of my ears (not Ebola) reading some of these posts and felt I needed to put something out there

[JimmieB]

Hi rouletteKEY,

I'm fairly new to roulette, and after looking at various EC & dozen systems, etc,  I've now come round to thinking the best way to play this game is to look for repeaters on 1-3 numbers also.

There was an interesting system posted the other day by Roulette Knight called the crazy repeater, and I also came across some data by member amk showing stats if you bet 0 for 37 or 74 spins, then 1 for 37 or 74 spins, etc, with a mild progression the results were positive.

I think the main issue when playing like this is the large BR required which can, understandably put people off, as well as the length of time you would need to play for and the practicalities of playing this way, however, I don't think you can expect to profit from roulette (if you ever can!) unless you have both the BR and time.

I'm fortunate in the UK where I can play low stakes (1p) on online RNG, I know, I know, however, just £30 give me 3000 units, I can also play live dealers for 10p stakes, meaning £300 gives 3000. I'm not looking at committing to that amount at the moment, however, the early games using the 1p stakes are proving to be positive.

I for one, would be very interested in hearing more about how you play, and any other members who play in a similar way

Regards
Jim

[rouletteKEY]

Bankroll is immensely important in my opinion.  The ability to play thru inevitable drawdowns and still have the guts to push out the bets and the peace of mind to stay with your plan if you are confident in it... is just huge.

I play several methods simultaneously in most cases.

Always play the number that has repeated a second time for the third repeat (and if it gets the third hit within my betting range I ride it a little longer and bigger)

Generally play a hot wheel sector (up to 4 numbers / give it 4-5 spins)

If a column or dozen repeats itself I will give the numbers causing the trigger a few spins

Sometimes I use Mr J's fill in the street but I modified it a little for my play.  My modification (say 21 and 22 hit...I will play 20 and 23)

I fill in the blank on the wheel as well

Sometimes I play the last four numbers spun for one of them to repeat.

I have some other plays from time to time depending on what wheel I am on and what it is doing...

I never stay with a bet for very long though.  It needs to hit quickly or I give up on it.  I like to play to win and that means mild progressions with caps as I explained... and the smaller number of individual targets allows me to use the progressions because of the recovery capabilities.   By playing predominantly repeaters I have had good success with a light mix of wildcards (those being the fill in the blank type plays)

[Turner]

RK, playing the way you describe, you will have nice wins and forgettable losses.

[rouletteKEY]

RK, playing the way you describe, you will have nice wins and forgettable losses.

That has been my evil plan all along.

Some days it works better than others...all in all I am pretty satisfied...

but always tweaking and trying to improve

you're either growing or dying

[RouletteGhost]

i am intrigued by betting on 1-3 numbers

it just seems so risky

do you only bet numbers that repeated recently?

interested in more info

thanks

[rouletteKEY]

i am intrigued by betting on 1-3 numbers

it just seems so risky

do you only bet numbers that repeated recently?

interested in more info

thanks

momentarily warm numbers...I am not looking for a massive onslaught of a single number or two although I will welcome it with open arms.

don't get greedy...a third hit happens enough that with good money management I can risk little to make decent returns and every once in a while knock one out of the park...sometimes I get a bad streak but I level off or temporarily abandon the streak until a situation arises where I can jump back in...it's gambling...there's always a risk that no matter how many times it's worked in the past...it may not work this time

Ego just started a thread about incremental gains and protecting bank...a risk vs return conversation with some points being made about heavy progressions and the risk of ruin they bring to the table but also discusses that you cant win a ton betting a little

Try to break the game down into it's simplest elements...wherever you are weak...the wheel will find you

The obvious elements being:  Adequate bankroll (broken down into session banks and a reserve beyond that), Bet Selection,  Money Management.  All three can then be broken down into minute pieces by simply applying it all to your bet selection.  If you are going to play an EC to make x amount of money with x amount of bank things can be completely different than playing a single number or two with the same goals.  It's rather simplistic and then becomes amazing complicated before it sorts itself out...if that makes any sense to you

There is alot of information on betting a few numbers...XXVV and Mr J probably have the most popular threads I think on the currently hot forums and what they discuss I think is the general consensus of how many will play repeating numbers.  You need to determine how you are going to identify the repeat... how many appearances in how many spins...and then how many spins are you going to play for how many hits...then are you going to flat bet or use progressions either/or negative and positive in nature.

[JimmieB]

Thanks RK