How I think roulette can be beaten

[falkor]

One of the rarest numbers events on the board might be 1 number appearing 4-5 times in a row, but since this isn't a good example for describing my method, let's describe another equally rare event: let's say that a group of 18 numbers could appear 37 times in a row over a billion spins (I don't know the exact amount; it's also possible that there could be a maximum for any amount of spins). Now if that was to happen when you first arrived at the table the expected fluctuation for any number should be no more than 1 if the law of large numbers had its way (all 37 numbers should have appeared exactly once in an average run of 37 spins); in fact, this is what the forces of nature are always trying to do - keep the fluctuation to a minimum in our chaotic universe.

So we now have the average expected fluctuation for every 37 spins = 1 or 2.7%
18 numbers are each -37 compared to the average fluctuation (percentage?) = maximum fluctuation

We would bet the table limits of 2,000 on each of the 18 numbers = maximum number of chips 

So by keeping a record of number totals, average fluctuation each spin, how each number compares to the average fluctuation we can determine (based on the above example) how much to bet individually on each of the 37 numbers each and every spin!

[falkor]

A few corrections to my post:
*The number fluctuation should be based not on the average, but on the most hot number
*Figuring out a rare event for which to bet 2000 (and base all other calculations on) cannot be based on numbers coming in a row, but must be based on the difference between the hottest and coldest numbers.

[falkor]

Attached is the spread sheet for entering number totals (in the red-black-dark green boxes) and calculating chips to bet on each number, based on fluctuation.

You can also change the bankroll figure should you never have enough money to place up to 35 x 2000 chip bets.

I am going to test over 1 million spins to figure out the rarest event in terms of number fluctuation and then I'll let you know what value to enter into the yellow box (right now it's set to 0.973684211 but it needs to be somewhere nearer to 100% methinks)

Oh, and the numbers boxes can't be set to 0, so reset them all to 1 if you start a new session (a total of 5 appearances would really be 4 but set it to 5)

[falkor]

Some fluctuation tests on red and black over near 1 mill spins - this system could easily be adapted to include any sections of the board besides numbers!

[falkor]

Number Fluctuation results incoming:

Spin Min Max Gap


14   1   2   1
18   1   3   2
49   1   4   3


Edit: this test was done wrong. Not looking for maximum gaps; looking for max ratio. Will re-run...

[RouletteGhost]

U are cray cray

[falkor]

Doing this on red-black was enough to transform most losing sessions into winning sessions! If it doesn't work on numbers then I guess I am crazy or there is something fundamentally wrong! 

[falkor]

Away we go...! 

Spin Min Max Ratio

14 1 2 0.5
18 1 3 0.666666666666667
49 1 4 0.75
77 1 5 0.8
113 1 6 0.833333333333333
150 1 9 0.888888888888889

[falkor]

Damn, my ratio calculation is wrong. It's currently based on the maximum, but may need to be based on total or a more complicated formula involving both.

Edit: OK I think it's solved - the formula should be slightly more simpler than it was - won't upload the new spread sheet till I finish the current test.

[falkor]

Tell a lie, we are actually looking for max gaps ratio - still expected to close even in the long run. Original spread sheet seems valid for now - though I've added some formatting and rounded down the wagers.

Spin Min Max Gap

18 1 3 2
49 1 4 3
77 1 5 4
113 1 6 5
135 2 8 6
150 1 9 8
259 4 13 9
300 5 16 11
306 2 16 14
383 4 20 16
514 6 23 17
654 10 28 18
741 11 30 19

[falkor]

Closing in on the maximum gap now... will it get to 700 even?

400199 10432 11045 613
401559 10469 11083 614
403264 10517 11132 615
403313 10518 11136 618
406458 10590 11210 620
406560 10593 11214 621
406612 10594 11216 622
406723 10598 11221 623
450546 11748 12372 624
450828 11754 12379 625
450934 11756 12382 626
451077 11759 12387 628

[falkor]

Damn, it's started going back up again! 

655403 17307 18058 751
655456 17308 18061 753
655522 17310 18068 758
655595 17311 18070 759
655643 17312 18073 761
655753 17315 18077 762
655803 17317 18081 764
655922 17319 18085 766
656270 17323 18093 770
656320 17324 18098 774
656535 17329 18104 775
658911 17386 18162 776
660958 17439 18217 778

[falkor]

It stopped breaking records after that for at least 300,000 spins, so that's our rarest event, folks! 

660958 17439 18217 778

Will continue tomorrow! 

[RouletteGhost]

Does anybody understand this?

[Rewster88]

sorry no