Some ideas on table layout betting. (Subject modified)

[falkor]

Longest progression to first win, i.e. progression of simultaneous DSs played (established at 15% into the test):
0   1   1   2   3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

I think that is doable at around 500? But to take into account all progressions and maximum for each spin number we might be better to add another safety net into watch mode:
Rule 1: DS 1 closed by spin 7 with at least 3 open (entering Watch Mode)
Rule 2: DS 2 closed by spin 11 with at least 3 open (entering Watch Mode)
New Rule 3: DS 3 closed by spin 15 with at least 3 open (entering Watch Mode)

We could scrap the 3rd rule, but then we would need to use an "average progression" and monitor any negative bankroll, or we can learn several types of progressions based on the first few spins, ie. 1123 or 1223, etc. I vote for an all encompassing progression that can bear hug anything the wheel throws at us!

This is quite a complex problem and it seems the solution may be as simple as 1 rule geared around DS 3 closing since DS 1 and 2 aren't usually bet if 4+ DSs are open up so that's taken care of as part of that process. We may then bet repeats when DS 1 and 2 close, but they never amount to a big progression. Most of the BR is being taken trying to close DS 4 without a win - so we should go into watch mode on DS 4 and then see if DS 5 is playable. With DS 2-3 and open > 3 we are already kind of in watch mode unofficially. Anyway, I'll continue to grapple with this until it's solved and the first progression established.

[Still]

This is quite a complex problem and it seems the solution may be as simple as 1 rule geared around DS 3 closing since DS 1 and 2 aren't usually bet if 4+ DSs are open up so that's taken care of as part of that process. We may then bet repeats when DS 1 and 2 close, but they never amount to a big progression. Most of the BR is being taken trying to close DS 4 without a win - so we should go into watch mode on DS 4 and then see if DS 5 is playable. With DS 2-3 and open > 3 we are already kind of in watch mode unofficially. Anyway, I'll continue to grapple with this until it's solved and the first progression established.

falkor, a while back you started a thread called "Comparing 3 different kinds of bets". 

link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=14926.0

ego assisted on reply #2 with some statistics.

You said this about the 2nd variation (5 lines):

"-The 2nd bet selection has more flexibility than the 3rd (5 variations vs. 2 variations)."

So here's an idea.  Why not start off, right away with 5 lines, or wait till you see some repeat, then include the repeat line(s) in a group of 5 lines, always including the repeat lines, and dumping any sleeping lines. 

In this way, you start off with the benefit of the statistics ego supplied, only this way, you are trying to be flexible about including lines most likely to hit (assuming a line with a repeat is most likely to hit).  I believe ego also mentioned a possible progression in which you go no farther than 4 levels, expecting to walk away from a couple of losses every thousand spins or so, but still, always coming out ahead because of the statistics.  This way you might be able to get off the ground for under 500 units BR.

Question:  I've seen the stats on lines with repeats.  Very interesting.  But what stats say that just because a line opens up (shows), it is more likely to get another hit (show again) before any other line?

Still

[Still]

Playing 5 simultaneous DSs (if you can afford it) is much more predictable and less chaotic.

Another reason to start out with 5 lines.  Maybe, as stats are built up from what come in during 37 spins, in might be possible to narrow down to an even money bet like 3 lines by flowing with your stats.  But if you end up using as much BR for 3 as for 5, might as well start with 5.  That way you're usually being paid one unit while actionable information comes in about the lines. 

In addition, where are the stats that say that when a line gets a unique number after it first shows, it is less likely to hit than any other line?

In regards to generating random numbers in your Excel engine, be sure to set a delay between calls to your random number function.  I learned this the hard way.  The more delay you put between calls, the more random it becomes.  By calling fast, i was once able to beat Craps, but it fell apart when the delay (random) was added. 

Still

[falkor]

falkor, a while back you started a thread called "Comparing 3 different kinds of bets". 

link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=14926.0

ego assisted on reply #2 with some statistics.

You said this about the 2nd variation (5 lines):

"-The 2nd bet selection has more flexibility than the 3rd (5 variations vs. 2 variations)."

So here's an idea.  Why not start off, right away with 5 lines, or wait till you see some repeat, then include the repeat line(s) in a group of 5 lines, always including the repeat lines, and dumping any sleeping lines. 

In this way, you start off with the benefit of the statistics ego supplied, only this way, you are trying to be flexible about including lines most likely to hit (assuming a line with a repeat is most likely to hit).  I believe ego also mentioned a possible progression in which you go no farther than 4 levels, expecting to walk away from a couple of losses every thousand spins or so, but still, always coming out ahead because of the statistics.  This way you might be able to get off the ground for under 500 units BR.

Question:  I've seen the stats on lines with repeats.  Very interesting.  But what stats say that just because a line opens up (shows), it is more likely to get another hit (show again) before any other line?

Still

The problem is that if the first 5-6 DSs open without a win then with 5 DSs we might have already used up to 1K BR. The question about repeats is fascinating and must have something to do with the law of the third (short-term). It's contrary to the Law of Large numbers, but that only comes into effect during the long-term. I don't understand why and never expected it, but at least we win more sets that way. Before I tested I discovered that betting the DSs in the dozens wasn't helping then when I bet 1 DS on a repeat that happened to come in the very next spin!

BTW, we could look at the possibility of switching to 5 DSs after the first win, but right now I'm still concentrating on the first win and the latest results are looking much better.

[falkor]

Another reason to start out with 5 lines.  Maybe, as stats are built up from what come in during 37 spins, in might be possible to narrow down to an even money bet like 3 lines by flowing with your stats.  But if you end up using as much BR for 3 as for 5, might as well start with 5.  That way you're usually being paid one unit while actionable information comes in about the lines. 

In addition, where are the stats that say that when a line gets a unique number after it first shows, it is less likely to hit than any other line?

In regards to generating random numbers in your Excel engine, be sure to set a delay between calls to your random number function.  I learned this the hard way.  The more delay you put between calls, the more random it becomes.  By calling fast, i was once able to beat Craps, but it fell apart when the delay (random) was added. 

Still

Yep - I've considered betting dozens - and in some cases you could switch to High/Low. I was going to look at that next if the latest test results don't yield a BR of less than 500 for getting the first win.

As for the stats you are interested in, I've never tested that since the basic rules of Warriors means that once a new number comes in the DS is closed and we are finished with it for the set. I would guess that the longer you play the same set beyond 37 spins to more the Law of the Large Numbers comes into effect and the Law of the Third becomes less effective, and we are relying on the latter hence re-tracking after DS 4-5 closes.

[falkor]

I might be getting horny over nothing but the latest results are looking beautiful! I think we've cracked it with the single rule on DS 3... nearly every set is being won and not much wasted and not a massive BR from what I can tell... TBC whether this is true; or a false alarm, i.e. wishful thinking! 

[RFMAXX]

I might be getting horny over nothing but the latest results are looking beautiful! I think we've cracked it with the single rule on DS 3... nearly every set is being won and not much wasted and not a massive BR from what I can tell... TBC whether this is true; or a false alarm, i.e. wishful thinking! 

you cracked it!
again: thanks for your work and effort!!!

[RFMAXX]

any update on orochis tracker?

[falkor]

Orochi's tracker is very impressive! It can test up to 6 million spins, but I don't think its at a stage where it can suggest any progression or give us the exact way of playing. Hence, this is what's haunted me:

I'm lucky that my brain power is concentrated on one side - I may be crap at art and creativity, but I have the ability to see the trees amongst the forest - it seems we have a single crucial review/check point, and one point alone, where we must make the toughest decision (when DS 3 closes!). I've got a nice vision in my head right now of this system winning big bucks.

[falkor]

This is looking very nice... 1 in 20 sets is going into watch mode on DS 3 closing to check on the possibility of playing DS 5, but some of those might immediately quality for DS 4 (not our main priority right now). And not much is being potentially lost on those sets either.
19/20 sets are getting their first win outright! I don't have the final confirmation yet, but the excitement is returning: WARRIORS IS BACK - bigger and badder than ever before!!     

[SamNL]

Like RFMAXX already said:

Thank you for all your hard work and effort Falkor.
The work and effort that you have put in so far are amazing.

[falkor]

Np--you're welcome, guys! 

It seems the DS 3 rule filters out 99% of losing streaks (i.e. most of the crap) and keeps everything within the 500 BR, but there's still 1% of sets that are exhausting the BR, but that's a massive improvement still. And these sets are more explainable.

In the attached set DS 2 closed as early as spin 10, which is well below the threshold we would even consider with the earlier rules (11-15). Following that DS 3 then took a maximum losing streak that exhausts the BR. The irony is that if we had warrior's wallet then DS 4 is guaranteed within 2 spins - that's when you would take out a 100K loan just for DS 4! 

Solution is to add in 1 more rule that is not dependent on open/closed but simply goes into watch mode at DS 2 closed/spin 10. We would have then watched it for 7-8 spins then bet our house on DS 4. Watch Mode is where roulette gets totally destroyed upon observing a lengthy gap.

[vladir]

Thanks for you work till now falkor. Why not simplify and play only the beggining of the cycle? The rest seems to require some extensive calculations to determin progression. Playing in a real casino, we won't have the luxury of being able to do it I guess...

However, yes, playig both the beggining and the end of the cycle may work good - in online play...

But why complicate, if we can have it working with just the beggining? (or can we not? )

[falkor]

You can play just the beginning of the cycle, and the profits will steadily increase, but if you learn it properly then you can demand large amounts of money in certain situations. And there isn't a great deal to remember once we have it tweaked. The struggle right now is to get less than a handful of rules - by trial and error - nailed precisely so that we never get wiped out by a single losing streak and know the optimum progression(s).

To play the beginning, chaotic stage and home straight, the only stuff you need to remember playing up to 3 DSs:
*DS 2 closed on which spin number? Is there 3 open? If so go into Watch Mode.
*DS 3 has closed without a win and below a certain spin number? If so go into watch mode.
*DS 3 closed at which spin number? How many repeats did DS 1 and DS 2 have? Play DS 4 or go into watch mode with the hope of playing DS 5?
*While betting for DS 4 has a repeat occurred? If so the predicted close will be less spins away - restart progression.

There will also be a couple of rules similar to above for wins 2+. Besides that the only other rules will be to do with Watch Mode: watch for any medium-large gaps then play the following DS otherwise watch the next DS. If all close quickly then you have to forfeit the set.

[falkor]

Out of several 100s of thousand of sets I'm now down to a handful that were all won - so they didn't end at watch mode - but did require about 1K to win them. To filter out those final few I've had to introduce one more rule, so with the next test I am confident all dangers have been eliminated. But how many times have I said something similar?

Anyway, we're now back up to 3 rules again for entering Watch Mode, albeit very specific:

DS 1 Closes
Spin # less than 8
Open = 3

DS 2 Closes
Spin # less than 11
Open = 3

DS 3 Closes
Spin # less than? (not sure exactly yet so have left this part of the rule out for now)
Open = 3

Basically, the method to the madness is: when we fail to hit a DS with 3 blind mice then we have to make sure that we don't have 3 open, otherwise we could end up betting 3 continuously and exhausting the BR.

This has to be ultra safe since most of our risk taking will be done in watch mode.