Gambler's Certainty - Not a method

[Colbster]

In AMK's post concerning a minimum of 4 repeats showing in a string of 37 spins, Mr J. said the following:

"What I like about this......its something that WILL happen.
As I prefer to call it >>"EVENT BETTING"

That single line has stuck with me and it made a nice fit with the foundation of Warrior's recent post that got so much attention.

Here are some things that have been declared as certain to happen in the future:

• Within 37 spins, 4 repeats will occur, meaning that one dozen will have a minimum of 2 repeats during the same string
  
• At least 4 of the DS will have at least 2 unique numbers appear in them in the course of 37 spins

There are more, but I simply don't know them.  The reason why I bring this up is because the small majority of people in this forum appear to dismiss Gambler's Fallacy, although some obviously embrace it.  For those who dismiss it as "We don't know what is due based on what has spun in the past", these two items are examples of what is due just based on we know they are due.  Playing the two points I mentioned just at face value can require some substantial bankroll.

My question to the forum is - What other absolute certainties are you aware of that we know will occur in a certain amount of time?

Will we get a chop within 20 spins?

Will we get at least one split that will hit 4 times in 37 spins?

What is the highest number that we absolutely know at least one street will hit in 24 spins (or 37 or 55)?

How many times minimum will neighbors hit?

There are, I'm certain, people who know what is certain to occur.  I was hoping that we could expand this thread with that knowledge to expand one another's knowledge.

[ego]

My question to the forum is - What other absolute certainties are you aware of that we know will occur in a certain amount of time?

This is exactly what Marigny does with even money bets.
Lets say you see singles and series of two appear within a window of 30 trails/events.
Then you know that you will get larger series to appear for the next 50/100/150 trails/events.
You don't know when they will happen, but you know they will happen.
Same as you describe above.

So you don't play to catch one of does events, because then you would chasing for a event to happen like any other betselection.
When you get one event to show, then the event is present and you can attack, this is what we call tendency play.

[Colbster]

Thanks for the reply, although that doesn't fit what I'm asking. I agree that severe deviations from the mean well eventually return to balance. However, we don't know how long it will take to do so. I'm specifically looking for quantifiable bets that must occur by a certain spin number. Even more specifically, something that will happen at least a number of times by a certain spin.  I like high numbers that we can wait until right before, a turn-on/turn-off situation. If at least one DS will always have at least 9 hits in 37, we can wait until one gets 8 before we start. By that time, many of the 37 will already be on the marquis without us losing chasing the chances. Also, it minimizes how many potential candidates we have and preserves bankroll by narrowing the spaces we must cover to get our hits.

[psimoes]

We know a dormant EC will eventually get ahead of the other. I'd like to see some stats based on real spins about this.

Speaking of DS, last time I went to the B&M I registered the following spins:
12 22 1 27 0 12 33 18 20 13 29 30 21 21 13 13 12 20 12 19 23 9 33 19 9 0 25 0 0 23 26 9 14 14 20 30 5 36 20 29 9
DS1 took 34 spins to close.

[TwoCatSam]

Colbster

Before I study this further, would you link or name the thread by AMK? 

Sam

[Colbster]

link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=13544.0;nowap

[Colbster]

For instance, a minimum of 3 hits will occur on at least one split in 37 spins.  Wait until one gets a repeat, then bet that split.  As more splits repeat, add them to the bet until one hits.  Use a number of units to cover all bets and return at least +1 on a hit.  After the win, backtrack just far enough in tracking to remove the first appearance of the split.  Rebet all splits that have repeats since that time and continue.  This allows for constant betting after your first period of tracking.  There are so many ways of determining what "must" happen and then applying a betting mechanism.  Some are just more manageable from a bankroll/progression standpoint than others.

[Colbster]

And I'm not suggesting that as a method, I'm just pointing out how must-shows can be structured.  I'm looking for the things that must happen "no later than....".  Any time you put eventually in your reply, that is not the information I am looking for in this thread.

[Colbster]

Just as easily, there will be at least 6 hits in at least 1 DS in 37 spins.  Wait until you have 5 hits, bet any and all DSs with 5 until the 6th hit.  A million different approaches that can be used when we have a minimum number of X in Y spins.

[GLC]

Colbster,  One of the systems that goes into something along these lines is Roulette 2000 and can be found on page 1586 or around there in the systems posted under Main Roulette Board by Iggiv.  It's not exactly what you're asking for, but close.  You might find it interesting if you haven't already read it.

GLC

[psimoes]

Any time you put eventually in your reply, that is not the information I am looking for in this thread.

I see it now. Sorry.

You know, everytime I went to the B&MC I used to record the outcomes and I recall two-time repeaters always showing up in 37 spins at least once. Again, nothing absolute to give you, but the longest gap between 2-time repeaters should not be much more than 37. If someone provides the data, a method could be devised instantly. I'm sure it has been tried. Sorry if this is still off-topic.

[nowun]

Attached is Roulette 2000 suggested by GLC for those who do not have it and dont want to wade through Iggiv's post.

[TwoCatSam]

This is interesting...........

But going back to Mr. J...  Exactly what are you seeing?  The beginning, the middle or the end?

I would think a person would need a "qualifying time" to determine where you are in the scheme of things.  For example:  I see a split hit for the second time.  Is that the third time for someone else?  Can his third time be my second time?  Or is that split dead?

If you knew whatever you see is yours, this is very interesting.  Wouldn't we all love to see a roulette wheel "forced" into doing something?

TwoCat

[GLC]

Attached is Roulette 2000 suggested by GLC for those who do not have it and don't want to wade through Iggiv's post.

Thanks Nowun.  That's an interesting read for anyone not that familiar with roulette.  It's the idea that got me started on roulette in the first place.  The best way to play it is with a bot, I think.  Otherwise you go crazy tracking.  Of course if you pick a large variety of spots to look for a trigger, you might get enough bets to make it interesting. 

The problem is this whole concept of "gambler's fallacy".  We know that no matter how many times Red has hit in a row, the next spin is still a 50/50 proposition on a non-zero wheel.

GLC

[RouletteGhost]

wow just browsed that pdf

he had an 8 spins target on one dozen and if no hit then 8 spins more on a double street in that dozen

talk about a potential high hit rate

i need to study this