Gambler's Certainty - Not a method

[TwoCatSam]

psi

I never knew if that pic was of him or some character in history.  I asked him once and he never replied.

Sam

[psimoes]

Sam, I meant "the one with the avatar with the funny moustache", but then there would be two "with" words in the same question, so I shortened the phrase to "the avatar with...", then it might suggest we're not real people here, so I rewrote it to "the one with...". I spend too much effort to make myself clear in English, and then it goes wrong.

Ralph's avatar seems from the Handlebar Moustache Club.

[TwoCatSam]

I'm "with" ya!! 

[psimoes]

Lol OK Sam

Now, here's what I've been thinking about:

ATTENTION: THE FOLLOWING HAS NOT BEEN TESTED. IT'S FOR APPRECIATION ONLY! DON'T SPEND REAL MONEY ON THIS THING!

We begin tracking numbers and if as soon as a number shows up three times within 37 spins, we restart tracking (commencing on the next number after the repeater).

Then, as soon as one number (whatever number, doesn't have to be the same that showed up before) repeats, we begin flat betting on that number alone for it to show up a third time.

With luck we won't need a progression. In the worst case, it will show up 54 spins after we started retracking, In which case we would need a bankroll of 74 units.

1) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 35 Bankroll Needed: $1
2) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 34 Bankroll Needed: $2
3) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 33 Bankroll Needed: $3
4) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 32 Bankroll Needed: $4
5) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 31 Bankroll Needed: $5
6) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 30 Bankroll Needed: $6
7) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 29 Bankroll Needed: $7
Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 28 Bankroll Needed: $8
9) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 27 Bankroll Needed: $9
10) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 26 Bankroll Needed: $10
11) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 25 Bankroll Needed: $11
12) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 24 Bankroll Needed: $12
13) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 23 Bankroll Needed: $13
14) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 22 Bankroll Needed: $14
15) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 21 Bankroll Needed: $15
16) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 20 Bankroll Needed: $16
17) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 19 Bankroll Needed: $17
18) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 18 Bankroll Needed: $18
19) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 17 Bankroll Needed: $19
20) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 16 Bankroll Needed: $20
21) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 15 Bankroll Needed: $21
22) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 14 Bankroll Needed: $22
23) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 13 Bankroll Needed: $23
24) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 12 Bankroll Needed: $24
25) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 11 Bankroll Needed: $25
26) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 10 Bankroll Needed: $26
27) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 9 Bankroll Needed: $27
28) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 8 Bankroll Needed: $28
29) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 7 Bankroll Needed: $29
30) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 6 Bankroll Needed: $30
31) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 5 Bankroll Needed: $31
32) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 4 Bankroll Needed: $32
33) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 3 Bankroll Needed: $33
34) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 2 Bankroll Needed: $34
35) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 1 Bankroll Needed: $35
36) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 35 Bankroll Needed: $37
37) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 33 Bankroll Needed: $39
38) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 31 Bankroll Needed: $41
39) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 29 Bankroll Needed: $43
40) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 27 Bankroll Needed: $45
41) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 25 Bankroll Needed: $47
42) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 23 Bankroll Needed: $49
43) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 21 Bankroll Needed: $51
44) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 19 Bankroll Needed: $53
45) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 17 Bankroll Needed: $55
46) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 15 Bankroll Needed: $57
47) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 13 Bankroll Needed: $59
48) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 11 Bankroll Needed: $61
49) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 9 Bankroll Needed: $63
50) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 7 Bankroll Needed: $65
51) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 5 Bankroll Needed: $67
52) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 3 Bankroll Needed: $69
53) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 1 Bankroll Needed: $71
54) Bet: $ 3 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 34 Bankroll Needed: $74

Screenshot is self-explaining.

Suppose we start tracking on nr. 36. 23 spins later finally 27 shows up for a third time. We commence retracking on the next number which is 35, and we see nr. 5 is the first to repeat, so we start flat betting on that number until it repeats again. Six spins later, WIN! We spent 6 units and won 30. We feel lucky, and will stay for a second round. We already have our 3-show-upper so we begin tracking on the next number, 29. Incidently 29 is the first number  to repeat in the new cycle, so we start betting on it. 20 spins later, WIN! We spent 20 units and profitted 16. Weǘe been at the table for three hours, but earned 36 units. Tough job, but that's life.

[psimoes]

Now, you might ask where's the certainty here? All we see is just another system based on GF, right? Who's to say that after we have our repeater, that very number won't show up again much later and we aren't wasting our bankroll on another sleeper?
Well, based on what I've learned about trends, it's possible that a number starts its hybernation cycle gradually. We had a trend of repetitions in the last 37-cycle. We will follow that trend, assuming for now that if there's a sleeper in the next spins, it's showing up so rarely that we woudn't select it for our bet anyway, there would be some other number that repeated before that one. This should be tested. With any system everything is based on Gambler's Fallacy until proven contrary.

[Colbster]

Don't you think that implying that one dozen will have at least two repeaters (out of four in a 37-spin cycle), picking one at random and guessing there will be 7 repeaters in a live situation, kind of defeat the point of the thread? The underlined words are yours, in both threads. Either we talk of guessings (to pick one) or absolutes, otherwise the thread will gear towards Gambler's Fallacies, not Certainties.

The way I approached the problem in AMK's post was to wait until a dozen had the first repeat and then chase after the second.  If there are 4 repeats spread among 3 dozens, 1 HAS to have at least 2.  I played for the second repeat only.  If we had 5 1-show numbers in a dozen and then a repeat in that dozen, I would begin betting all 5 in that dozen.  The second repeat on any of the 5 (plus any that appear after beginning betting) in that dozen would close the bet and start the next set.  Sometimes we only bet on one dozen, sometimes 2, sometimes all 3.  They got activated as soon as they had their first repeat.  Based on the statistics, that was an absolute certainty to occur.  There was no guessing involved - it was never even a discussion in my manner of playing based on AMK's observation.

The 7 repeats in live is troublesome because I don't know if it has been verified in any meaningful way.  If it was, the same math applies to playing beginning the second repeat and only chasing the third.  The main trouble with the method playing for 4 repeats was bankroll.  If you got repeats in all 3 dozens early, it got a little steep.  Using 7 instead of four, there will be less qualified dozens to bet on and a shorter time frame to worry about the costs.

[psimoes]

The main trouble with the method playing for 4 repeats was bankroll.  If you got repeats in all 3 dozens early, it got a little steep.

I don't doubt about the 4 repeats minimum. The above conclusion was my reasoning. Hence why I've been concerned about table limits recently.

[psimoes]

So far, my "system" is doing OK. On Celtic Casino, betting on 0 took 12 spins. On my toy roulette, the numbers I was betting on showed up early too, until the final round. Last winner took 45 spins, and in the meantime other numbers showed up for two, three and for times.

Which leads me to think that my "system" has a little flaw that can be easily fixed: so far we've been going for a second round immediately after a win on a number that showed-up for three times. Why start counting for another two-time repeater when we just got one, right? Wrong, I'd say. If we continue we are relying on clustering.

It's really advisable to go back a few spins, pick up any other number that showed for two times, not our previous winner, wait until it hits a third time, and only after that we begin our tracking for the next repeater. When this one hits twice, we then bet for it to hit a third time.

Another thing, probably betting on neighbours would save us a lot of time, but this is just another opinion, not backed.up by any statistics, so far. Not mentioning the betting on three numbers.

[psimoes]

One major flaw in my "system", why aren't we surprised, is in choosing the first number that repeats after we started re-tracking, for selecting our bet. This is downright GFBS.


Tisch:                       T7
Datum:               2014-12-03

********* Gewinnzahlen ********
N  Z  R

4         Suppose we had just started to track for a 2-time repeater, from exactly here...
35       
2       
      16 
4       
-- -- -- 
31       
      12 
20       
35       
4        Well, what do you know? Here is one. That was fast. Now let's re-track for a first repeat...
17       
8       
8        Woohoo here it is. I'll be home in time for supper. Let's start betting...
      36 
      36  Hmmm... another repeater...
      32 
20       
11       
      27 
      27  What? Another one!
29       
29        What the...?
      12 
       9 
-- -- -- 
      27  Dang! Doesn't matter, stay on target...
       7 
      19 
15       
24       
      23 
11       
      36  Uh-oh...
17       
      27  Argh! Where's that damned 8?
      12 
17       
      16 
33       
-- -- -- 
      12 
17       
       9 
       9  I wanna file a complain...
29       
      34 
       5 
11       
      30 
    0     
      21 
      21 
      36 
      36  Yes, Sir you heard me...
24       
      14 
       1 
      12 
       1 
-- -- -- 
      25 
    0     So, what's new on telly?
      14 
      34 
15       
       9 
28       
      25 
      16 
31       
2       
      34 
      18 
29       
      34 
      21 
      36 
      30 
       7 
13       
8        What? Who, me? Those are my winnings?

The irony of this situation is that stats are still right: Numbers appearing three times and no signs of that longest gap of 54...

Solution so far: betting on every repeating number until one repeats again... it would have been an easy session... but I really wanted to avoid that...

[RouletteGhost]

You could bbt 1 unit on every number as it comes betting on a repeat

[psimoes]

You could bbt 1 unit on every number as it comes betting on a repeat

I tried that. Too risky, requires bankroll and when the spins from hell arrive they'll take away the previous winnings.
Betting after the first repeat is much safer.

[vladir]

Hello again Colbster!

In a 5 million spin test it was shown that less then 7 repeats only happens 10 times. Less then 4 was not seen. 5 once, 6 nine times.

135,150 sessions of 37 spin cycles......

The 4 repeat minimum in 37 spins was for 30 million spins.

In a live casino, I am guessing we will never see less then 7 repeats.

I confirm this numbers. In several millions of random number sets I tried, 5 was minimum and only saw it once. Its an extremly rare rare event.