Gambler's Certainty - Not a method

[Colbster]

The problem is this whole concept of "gambler's fallacy".  We know that no matter how many times Red has hit in a row, the next spin is still a 50/50 proposition on a non-zero wheel.

That's the whole point of my thread.  We know that past spins don't influence future events.  However, in those instances where future events are already laid out for us in terms of "at least", we have a place to start.  Statistics are telling us what is going to happen, we just need to identify those certainties that can be captured without running afoul of the table limits or a reasonable time and bankroll.  I'm not explaining this properly, I guess, as nothing is forthcoming.  Thanks to everyone who has tried to add to the discussion.

[GLC]

That's the whole point of my thread.  We know that past spins don't influence future events.  However, in those instances where future events are already laid out for us in terms of "at least", we have a place to start.  Statistics are telling us what is going to happen, we just need to identify those certainties that can be captured without running afoul of the table limits or a reasonable time and bankroll.  I'm not explaining this properly, I guess, as nothing is forthcoming.  Thanks to everyone who has tried to add to the discussion.

Colbster,  I think you're asking an unanswerable question.  There are no absolutes in roulette.  If there are, they're such that no bet method can capitalize on them.  I've heard of 24 or so even chances in a row but you still can't say that it's 100% sure you can't get 25.

GLC

[RouletteGhost]

Infalliable roulette system - wait for 20 EC run, bet against it with 100 dollar units, martingale. Youll always win, however the trigger could take days

[psimoes]

I think there can be absolutes. Afterall it's about a finite number of slots, and a fixed set of rules.

Edit - Addendum:

But, even if we do all the number crunching right, the payouts are still unfair. The House Edge and all that. It will get you.

We're all walking around in circles here. In the end it's about Luck.

[psimoes]

Another certainty is that Table Limits are there to protect the House. The only way to beat them is Team Work.

[Turner]

Infalliable roulette system - wait for 20 EC run, bet against it with 100 dollar units, martingale. Youll always win, however the trigger could take days

Just wait for 18 numbers to show (usually 24 spins) and bet the other 19
Happens all the time

[amk]

Hello again Colbster!

In a 5 million spin test it was shown that less then 7 repeats only happens 10 times. Less then 4 was not seen. 5 once, 6 nine times.

135,150 sessions of 37 spin cycles......

The 4 repeat minimum in 37 spins was for 30 million spins.

In a live casino, I am guessing we will never see less then 7 repeats.

[RouletteGhost]

Turner wait for 18 unique numbers then bet the remaining with martingale?

[psimoes]

AMK, are there any stats for the largest gap between two straight numbers that show up three times?

Like:

12xxxxxxxx12xxxxx12xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx25xxxxxxxxxx25xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx25
                                                               how many spins
                                   <----from here-------------------------------------------to here?--->

[Colbster]

In a live casino, I am guessing we will never see less then 7 repeats.

That changes the dynamic quite a bit!  With 7 (as compared to 4), one dozen will show at least 3 repeats instead of just 2.  If we extrapolate on my original method which we discussed in your post, we could drastically delay the betting, reducing the necessary bankroll and max bet.  Instead of waiting for a repeat and then betting all numbers which have shown in that dozen, we would now wait until there have been 2 repeats in a dozen before beginning to bet all numbers that have shown in that dozen.  This would increase the number of spaces in the dozen(s) that we would cover, but it would be for a shorter time.

[psimoes]

To Colbster and AMK since you guys are the OPs, don't you think that implying that one dozen will have at least two repeaters (out of four in a 37-spin cycle), picking one at random and guessing there will be 7 repeaters in a live situation, kind of defeat the point of the thread? The underlined words are yours, in both threads. Either we talk of guessings (to pick one) or absolutes, otherwise the thread will gear towards Gambler's Fallacies, not Certainties.

Don't take me for naysayer, please. I think we could be onto something here. It's good to have something we can rely upon, for a change.

[amk]

Hello Psimoes,

Not every 37 spin cycle will see a number hit 3 times. It can take up to 52 spins before 1 number is hit 3 times. Once one number is hit 3 times I would think that it would take less then 52 spins before the second number is hit 3 times due to there being a lot of numbers hit twice by this point.


Hello Colbster!

Psimoes does make an interesting point. It is possible that we do not see 7 repeats in a live casino. If my math is correct there is a 0.007% chance of this happening. I can work with those odds.

Instead of dozens I was thinking of playing Lines (DS) with the 7 repeats. One Line "will" have 2 repeats in it after 37 spins.

These are stats I found on the appearance of 6 unique lines in 6 spins.

1  4492
2  7319
3  7425
4  4884
5  2024
6   399

So 399 times out of 26,543 sessions 6 unique lines landed in a row. 4492 times there was a repeat on the second spin and the session ended. We can correlate this Line stat to the appearance of the first 6 repeats in 37 spins and the Lines they land in. So it will happen that the first 6 repeats all land one by one in unique lines but there is a 1.5% chance of this happening.

[TwoCatSam]

I think there can be absolutes. Afterall it's about a finite number of slots, and a fixed set of rules.

Edit - Addendum:

But, even if we do all the number crunching right, the payouts are still unfair. The House Edge and all that. It will get you.

We're all walking around in circles here. In the end it's about Luck.

Ralph said that.  I'm still sad about that old guy.

Sam

[psimoes]

Hello Psimoes,

Not every 37 spin cycle will see a number hit 3 times. It can take up to 52 spins before 1 number is hit 3 times. Once one number is hit 3 times I would think that it would take less then 52 spins before the second number is hit 3 times due to there being a lot of numbers hit twice by this point.
[...]

Thanks AMK. Much appreciated.

[psimoes]

Ralph said that.  I'm still sad about that old guy.

Sam

The one with the funny moustache?I remember from reading older posts. What happened? Did he bust?

Edit - Sorry I just read Ralph passed away. May he rest in peace.