Natural cycles

[Randominator]

Hello to everyone!

I have been looking into cycles of lines lately and think there are a lot of profitable bets within.

First thing - i think people make mistake by using artificial cycles in their play.

Cycle shouldn't be defined as the static number of spins arbitrary defined by player.

Length of cycle is defined by an event. Cycle is finished (over) only when event happens, and only then new cycle begins.

So if we observe standard 6 lines (doublestreets), what events do you think could define a natural cycle for lines?

[psimoes]

Cycle shouldn't be defined as the static number of spins arbitrary defined by player.

Interesting idea!

Welcome to the Forum, Ramdominator!

[Randominator]

Thanks psimoes!

No ideas guys? Ok, let me tell you what i think. Let's get to basics.

We all know standard question concerning cycles: How many numbers will appear during cycle of 37 spins on average?

Or standard one for lines: How many lines will appear during cycle of 6 spins on average?

Let's rephrase those questions in order to find out more about natural cycles:

How many spins on average takes for all 37 numbers to appear? How many spins on average takes for all 6 lines to appear?

What's the problem then? Number can sleep for a long, long time. 6 numbers also. Small number of cycles during a session.

That should concern us only if our bet depends on that last number/line. So in term of lines how can we shorten the average natural cycle?

[Randominator]

I found some interesting consistencies within the game after analyzing 500+ natural cycles.

As an event i chose appearance of 5th unique line, like this: 6355314 - cycle finished, start new cycle.

So how long does it usually take for a 5th line to show in your tests?

[Randominator]

Here are some stats guys. Real wiesbaden sessions, numbers represent spin number when 5th line appeared, thus length of cycle in spins.

0 counted as spin. Sessions attached.

Session 01

5
8
15
16
13
8
7
9
8
11
8
18
13
7
8
18
7
10
12
8
11
5

Session 02

7
6
6
6
6
7
5
10
13
7
13
14
8
6
5
9
16
8
6
5
5
14
8
6
6
13
10
11

[psimoes]

Can you include the number of spins a fourth DS took to appear per each cycle? So that we knew if betting on Last Four DSs would be worth it.

Like, for Session 01:

5, 4 - Five unique DS appeared - the fourth appeared at spin 4. Since the last spin of every cycle is a Loss, this one would be, well, a Loss.
8, 6 - Fourth DS appeared at spin 6, Betting Last 4 is a Win on spin 7, a Loss on spin 8.
15, 9 - We start betting at spin 10, a Loss at spin 15, therefore 5 Wins, 1 Loss.
16, 7 - Bet SAL4 at spin 8, WWWWWWWWL

And so on. There would be 6 zeros avg (225 spins / 37 ). Adding to 22 end of cycles there would be 28 Losses. If total Wins  are greater than double losses flat-betting, it should be a winning session.

[Randominator]

Of course psimoes, that's something i was planing to do. Not only 4th ds but also 3rd and 2nd in order to fully grasp the cycle and find some averages. Many bets can be constructed within cycle. I will soon post it.

P.S. In my previous post, along with stats i attached those 2 sessions but they are still waiting to be approved by mod. 

[Colbster]

I approved them - I approved the message but didn't see the attachments. 

[Randominator]

Thank you Colbster. Here it is. Spins when 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th line appeared.

01


2   3   4   5
2   3   5   8
4   7   9   15
2   3   5   16
3   4   5   13
3   4   5   8
2   4   6   7
2   3   6   9
2   3   5   8
2   4   7   11
2   3   4   8
4   5   7   18
2   4   7   13
2   3   6   7
2   4   7   8
2   3   4   18
2   4   5   7
2   5   6   10
3   7   10   12
2   3   4   8
3   4   10   11
2   3   4   5


02


2   3   6   7
2   3   4   6
2   3   5   6
2   3   5   6
2   3   4   6
3   4   6   7
2   3   4   5
2   3   9   10
2   5   8   13
3   4   5   7
2   3   11   13
2   5   9   14
2   3   5   8
2   4   5   6
2   3   4   5
3   6   8   9
2   5   6   16
2   3   4   8
3   4   5   6
2   3   4   5
2   3   4   5
2   3   6   14
2   3   6   8
2   3   4   6
3   4   5   6
2   3   4   13
2   3   8   10
2   3   4   11

[psimoes]

Thanks! Good work! A quick look and the gap ratio seems to increase each time a new DS appears but I could be wrong. Where's the coffee...

[psimoes]

Here's the gaps between DSs for Session 01. The 1s are obviously immediate losses. Betting SAL4 still looking good...

1 1 1 1
1 1 2 3
3 3 2 6
1 1 2 11
2 1 1 8
2 1 1 3
1 2 2 1
1 1 3 3
1 1 3 9
1 1 2 3
1 2 3 4
1 1 1 4
3 1 2 11
1 2 3 6
1 1 3 1
1 2 3 1
1 1 1 14
1 2 1 2
1 3 1 4
2 4 3 2
1 1 3 4
2 1 6 1
1 1 1 1

[psimoes]

103 total spins between DS4 and DS5. If we subtract the 28 losses it gives 75 wins! 75 - (28*2)= 19u profit for that session!

Edit - I included the 6 zeros in the losses but those were avg for 225/37. Since we lose to the zeros only when betting it should be (103/37)=2.7 (hmm...) zeros instead. Less three losses, therefore 22 wins estimate. Not bad for ONE session...
We could obviously stop at a better point. After analysing a significant number of sessions we could determine an optimal StopWin before it goes the descending curve.

We could also note the highest rate of 1s (immediate losses) and see if betting DTL would be worth it (in this situation each 1 would represent a win)...

[Rewster88]

What is sal4?

[psimoes]

Here SAL4 is Same As Last 4 Double Streets.

[wiggy]

It's an interesting idea. I like the look of betting for the 5th DS to appear because it means playing only two DS's.