Natural cycles

[psimoes]

Sure. Opinions aren´t facts so apologies in advance if I´m proven wrong.

Well, the idea here seems to be about  DS cycles in sequential order, that is, how many spins in average DS2 takes to hit, then DS3, DS4 and finally DS5. If we find the average we could for instance "know" for how many spins we bet DS1 and DS2 before DS3 hits, then for how many spins DS 1+2+3 before DS4 hits and so on, or even just betting on, say DS2+3, and  then wait until DS5 hits to start a new cycle.

The Warrior/Falkor thread seemed to focus differently. Here I presume we don´t care if DS1 hits 2 times; we keep betting on it and whatother DSs until say DS4 hits. And DS5 always closes the cycle. This I think is a key point. There´s no DS6. DS6 could be DS3 in the next cycle for all we care. This seemingly relates more to what´s discussed on the Are there really 37 outcomes? thread.

Don´t mean to sound arrogant or something; all this is to clear some confusion the Warrior/falkor thread might bring. But then, this is in the Notepad section so yeah all contributions are welcome.

Cheers.

[psimoes]

This evening at the B&M while playing another method couldn´t stop noticing how I could have made a small profit playing dozens as I mentioned earlier in the thread:

Dz

1
1
3 bet Dz 1&3
3 W
1 W
3 W
2 L - retrack
2
2
0
1 bet 2&1
2 W
1 W
0 L
2 W
1 W
3 L - retrack

[Randominator]

That's a matter of opinion psimoes. Randominator asked for cycles using lines which is what I have done. If he wants me to move on or just discuss the idea on offer so far then I will gladly move on.

Cheers.

Hi klw. Yes i have seen warriors thread and it made me revisit natural cycles, which i have been tempering with year ago.

My version is downgraded (first level) version of what you suggest. Basically, you bet doublestreets which had 1 appearance, i bet those with 0. You cancel those with 2 hits, i cancel those with 1. Some combination of versions can be a good thing. You could earn few units with my version  while you wait your trigger, i could recover some loses with your version if i extend the cycle. I will address some of warriors thoughts in my later posts.

Share your ideas freely. Cycles are very abstract because they are overlapping. One man's beginning other man's end.

[Randominator]

Here are some stats for 400 cycles, around 3500 spins:

rough average of spin on which 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5h ds hit -  2.23     3.82    5.86    8.93

so gaps average would be   2-3: 1.59 ,  3-4: 2.04,  4-5:  3.07

2nd line appeared most times on 2nd spin (324) and 3rd spin (62)

3rd line on  3rd (212) 4th (103) 5th (55)

4th line on  4th (98)  5th (104) 6th (84) 7th (55)

5th line in  5th (36) 6th (63) 7th (62) 8th (55) 9th (47)

[psimoes]

Here are some stats for 400 cycles, around 3500 spins:

rough average of spin on which 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5h ds hit -  2.23     3.82    5.86    8.93

so gaps average would be   2-3: 1.59 ,  3-4: 2.04,  4-5:  3.07

2nd line appeared most times on 2nd spin (324) and 3rd spin (62)

3rd line on  3rd (212) 4th (103) 5th (55)

4th line on  4th (98)  5th (104) 6th (84) 7th (55)

5th line in  5th (36) 6th (63) 7th (62) 8th (55) 9th (47)

OK, what advantage can we take, line after line... at first after DS1, betting all other DS hoping DS2 hits the next spin looks a sure bet. 324 spins vs 62 seem to prove it. A Loss means less 5 units therefore we need 5 Wins to recover. So 62*5=310; 324-310=14 to our advantage in 3500 spins. Only that 3500/14=250; 250/100=2.5 still below House Edge. Am I doing this right? Better move onto the next stat.

[psimoes]

The 250/100 doesn't compute the edge. Don't know why it made sense at the time, but it doesn't anymore. Anyway, there should be around 95 zeros, but we won't be exposed at all of them unless we bet for 3500 spins. Which will not happen. Too confusing right now so I'll do as everybody else and ignore the zero for now.

rough average of spin on which 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5h ds hit -  2.23     3.82    5.86    8.93

So far the strategy I can see ATM is kind of crazy. Please note this is the Notepad:

1. We wait or look at past history to start a new cycle. If ... DS5, DS2. Or ... DS5, DS6. Or ... DS5, DS5 we can start immediately (that DS2, "DS6" or the repeating DS5 will be our DS1).

2. DS2 has a good chance (I'm counting one spin as 100% so 1-0.23=77%) of hitting right on the next spin. So we could bet all 5 DS to win 1 unit or lose 5 units. 5/6 looks like a no-brainer but the price of a loss is higher than the 77% advantage: 83%. If we win we note DS2 and proceed. If we lose, don't bet until DS2 hits and try to recover later on during the cycle.

3. DS2 hits on the second spin. Now we bet DS1 and DS2 for one spin because there's a good chance DS3 hits on the fourth spin (82%). If we win, we win 4 units.

4. DS3 hits and we can bet DS1, DS2 and DS3 for one spin.

5. After DS4 hits, we can bet DS1, DS2, DS3 and DS4 for three spins (from 5.86 to 8.93).

6. Now we bet the remaining two DS until DS5 hits. Then we restart the cycle.

It's crazy I know. Don't test this with real money.

Recap:

Spin 1: DS1. nb
Spin 2: Bet remaining 5 DS DTL
Spin 3: Bet DS1, DS2 or wait until DS3 shows
Spin 4: Bet DS1, DS2, DS3.
Spin 5: Bet DS1, DS2, DS3, DS4
Spin 6: Same as above
Spin 7: Same
Spin 8: Bet remaining two, unhit DS
Spin X: End. Repeat.

[psimoes]

Of course we are free to bet when we want, but so far betting at every stage of the cycles it's doing well on RNG. And you know how those things behave. 100% winners were spin 2, spins 5, 6 & 7. Spin 8 always wins too, but didn't last for more than 2 spins max. That's when DS5 hits.

[psimoes]

That's a matter of opinion psimoes. Randominator asked for cycles using lines which is what I have done. If he wants me to move on or just discuss the idea on offer so far then I will gladly move on.

Cheers.

I eat crow here. Nothing wrong with combining ideas. Cheers!

[klw]

I eat crow here. Nothing wrong with combining ideas. Cheers!

No need to eat crow psimoes lol. Just glad the info. I supplied could help,that was the intention of supplying that data from the beginning.

Just 1 thing , when you have some time , any chance of a step by step clear instructions on what your new method is ? I'm afraid I'm one of those not so clever posters who needs more explanation before the penny drops.

Cheers.

[psimoes]

Sure klw. For the record it's not a method yet, just brainstorming over the original posted idea and the stats provided. Too soon to bet real money on this AFAIC the math could be wrong. I'll post a more detailed explanation later. Next year more likely LOL.

Till then. Happy New Year to ALL!

[Randominator]

Happy new year guys! May your betting in 2015 be safe, boring, predictable and profitable!

OK, what advantage can we take, line after line... at first after DS1, betting all other DS hoping DS2 hits the next spin looks a sure bet. 324 spins vs 62 seem to prove it. A Loss means less 5 units therefore we need 5 Wins to recover. So 62*5=310; 324-310=14 to our advantage in 3500 spins. Only that 3500/14=250; 250/100=2.5 still below House Edge. Am I doing this right? Better move onto the next stat.

Sorry psimoes, those stats are just spins with most hits out of 400 cycles.

So it would be like this 400 - 324 - 62 = 14

In 14 cycles 2nd line appeared after spin 3 (so few times on 4th, few times on 5th spin etc.)

For 3rd line it would be 400-212-103-55=30 (in 30 cycles 3rd appeared after 5th spin).

I posted only most relevant, we are not generaly interested in extremes.

It's like this:

324 W : 76 L = 324 - 380 = -56

So betting against 1st line on 5 others isn't something i would see as profitable.

[Randominator]

Spin 1: DS1. nb
Spin 2: Bet remaining 5 DS DTL
Spin 3: Bet DS1, DS2 or wait until DS3 shows
Spin 4: Bet DS1, DS2, DS3.
Spin 5: Bet DS1, DS2, DS3, DS4
Spin 6: Same as above
Spin 7: Same
Spin 8: Bet remaining two, unhit DS
Spin X: End. Repeat.

Now this is a good way of thinking. Riding on repeats but anticipate the change.

I had best results so far with similar kind of play. 2 3 4 5 doesn't come too often so we could profit on repeats before profiting on change. Warrior also mentions this:

"Repeats and changes of number make this bet win"

"So if all lines show at once I'm either on 2 of them or 3 of them to corner the bet for there changing numbers or catch the repeat . Now this is a HUGE TIP USE IT OR LOSE IT LOL."

Knowing when to ride and when to change is the key. Perhaps this can be achieved by observing stats. Warrior mentioned "formula".

[psimoes]

You're right about including 400 cycles. If we are betting once per cycle, that means 400 bets to account for!

So it would be like this 400 - 324 - 62 = 14

In 14 cycles 2nd line appeared after spin 3 (so few times on 4th, few times on 5th spin etc.)

This means, since there's no sign of DS3 yet, that DS1 is repeating (or, a zero hits).

It's like this:

324 W : 76 L = 324 - 380 = -56

Or as I prefer:

76*5=380 units lost against 324 won.

So, does this mean we'd better bet for a repeat of DS1? LOL

400/56=7.1%... it's more than double the house edge. Since it's about averages, variance may destroy this "advantage"... anyway it's less riskier to bet 1u and a win every 4 cycles profits 1u...

[psimoes]

Now this is a good way of thinking. Riding on repeats but anticipate the change.

I had best results so far with similar kind of play. 2 3 4 5 doesn't come too often so we could profit on repeats before profiting on change. Warrior also mentions this:

"Repeats and changes of number make this bet win"

"So if all lines show at once I'm either on 2 of them or 3 of them to corner the bet for there changing numbers or catch the repeat . Now this is a HUGE TIP USE IT OR LOSE IT LOL."

Knowing when to ride and when to change is the key. Perhaps this can be achieved by observing stats. Warrior mentioned "formula".

I can't comment on the Warrior method because it was too vague since the beginning and Falkor's torrents of numbers didn't help, either.

I get mixed results betting for/against DS1+DS2+DS3. I't an even chance, same as betting red/black...

The surest winner is still after DS4 hits, betting DS1+2+3+4 for three times.

Now we could have:

1. DS1 starts the cycle.
2. Bet for a repeat once. Wins 5 units or loses 1 unit. We have up to 5 cycles to break even on that bet.
3. DS2 and DS3 show up. Not sure about those two. Will have to delve into it later.
4. DS4 hits. It's a trigger.
5. \
6.   ----  Bet for DS1+2+3+4. Wins 2 units or loses 4 units each time. A Loss means DS5 hits, closing the cycle.
7. /
8. We reach this point only if the previous three were successful. Now we bet against 5. 6. and 7. once. Wins 4 units or loses 2 units. A Win closes the cycle. A Loss means No Bet and wait for DS5 to hit and close the cycle.

[psimoes]

To anyone following the thread and finds it confusing:

By "Natural Cycle" we mean there may be six Double Streets (Lines) on the board, but we're counting just five of them on a loop.

1st example: 2 2 4 5 4 3 3 1 - five different lines appeared - end of cycle. Next spins for a 2nd example: 6 1 6 1 3 2 2 4 - another cycle of five different lines ends.

By DS1, DS2 and so on I'm referring to their order of appearance.

On 1st ex: line 2 is DS1   On 2nd ex: line 6 is DS1
                line 4 is DS2                    line 1 is DS2
                line 5 is DS3                    line 3 is DS3
                line 3 is DS4                    line 2 is DS4
                line 1 is DS5                    line 4 is DS5

The other lines may repeat, but once DS5 hits, that's the end of a cycle. On the next spin whatever line hits will be the new cycle's DS1.