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Known Avg but probably disagree

Started by nottophammer, Dec 27, 07:13 AM 2014

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0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

nottophammer

are these devil numbers 0,19,21,25,8,10,5,7,and 28 from an old topic 666on VLS.
Forget the devil numbers bit,just look at those 9 numbers.

2,4,5,10,11,21,23,26,32,36 these 10 numbers from chaotic.

The above sets of numbers could have been  randomly picked, but are a known sets from historic posts.

The above 9 numbers longest seen take to come in is 31 spins on rng,  the 10 numbers on rng 21 spins.
Know can take that long to come in from data saved, so know is true.
Would Maths say the avg to come in is 31 spins for the  devil numbers and 21 for numbers from chaotic, or would formula say should come in before 31 and 21 spins or god forbid even longer.
How do you win at roulette, simple, make the right decision

psimoes

nottophammer, are you saying the longest gap recorded for the 9 numbers is 31 spins and for the 10 numbers is 21?
There's probably a mismatch as #5 and #10 are common to both groups.
[Math+1] beats a Math game

Turner

No disrespect Nottophamer...but I liken it to seeing poodles and Winston Churchil in the shape of the clouds.
They are just clouds
They are just numbers

Proofreaders2000

Roulette is just a random numbers device that uses physics.

As for the devil remember 2000 years ago on a cross...

nottophammer

Quote from: psimoes on Dec 27, 08:47 AM 2014
nottophammer, are you saying the longest gap recorded for the 9 numbers is 31 spins and for the 10 numbers is 21?
There's probably a mismatch as #5 and #10 are common to both groups.
Hi P Simoes
yes longest seen from records i have. Just wondering what maths would say 9 numbers could miss for, same for 10
Quote from: Turner on Dec 27, 09:11 AM 2014
No disrespect Nottophamer...but I liken it to seeing poodles and Winston Churchil in the shape of the clouds.
They are just clouds
They are just numbers

yes but lots of players pick groups of numbers would be interesting to see maths answer
Quote from: Proofreaders2000 on Dec 27, 09:17 AM 2014
Roulette is just a random numbers device that uses physics.

As for the devil remember 2000 years ago on a cross...
Proof only made them numbers up as the wheel is the devil added, but played em  and see them take 31 spins oh yes all on rng
How do you win at roulette, simple, make the right decision

nottophammer

Quote from: nottophammer on Dec 27, 07:13 AM 2014
are these devil numbers 0,19,21,25,8,10,5,7,and 28 from an old topic 666on VLS.
Forget the devil numbers bit,just look at those 9 numbers.

2,4,5,10,11,21,23,26,32,36 these 10 numbers from chaotic.

The above sets of numbers could have been  randomly picked, but are a known sets from historic posts.

The above 9 numbers longest seen take to come in is 31 spins on rng,  the 10 numbers on rng 21 spins.
Know can take that long to come in from data saved, so know is true.
Would Maths say the avg to come in is 31 spins for the  devil numbers and 21 for numbers from chaotic, or would formula say should come in before 31 and 21 spins or god forbid even longer.
sorry looked at wrong column the 9 numbers should say 23 spins on rng
How do you win at roulette, simple, make the right decision

nottophammer

okay Turner you've helped out before on formulas
so perhaps i should have asked how long 9 random picked numbers would be expected to take to come in, same for 10.
if an answer comes cheers NTH
How do you win at roulette, simple, make the right decision

iggiv

that's a wrong approach bud.

they may sleep for very very long time, you can very likely chose such sleepers. Or they may hit just the next spin after you bet. On average randomly picked numbers, no matter what, would get you breaking even if not the house edge. But because of the house edge you will lose its percentage. But that's not all yet. There are couple more factors. One is that if you with your regular play chose some numbers and some miss, you will see missing numbers come up very often. It's hard to understand this paradox in roulette, but that's how it works. It hits in your "weak spots". And another factor is that very likely choosing random numbers will not be random for you at all.
If you chose them yourself from your head. Because human being is tended to go by patterns even that he may think it is random what he  does. And roulette kills any patterns. So because of those 2 factors on a long run you will very likely lose much more than just house edge percentage.

psimoes

Quote from: iggiv on Dec 27, 10:04 AM 2014

If you chose them yourself from your head. Because human being is tended to go by patterns even that he may think it is random what he  does. And roulette kills any patterns.

This makes sense. But then another crazy paradox emerges when the wheel is spun by a human. If said human has good psychomotor coordination, no matter how hard he/she tries to act random there will be patterns. More neurons to burn about this.
[Math+1] beats a Math game

nottophammer

Quote from: psimoes on Dec 27, 10:54 AM 2014
This makes sense. But then another crazy paradox emerges when the wheel is spun by a human. If said human has good psychomotor coordination, no matter how hard he/she tries to act random there will be patterns. More neurons to burn about this.
Quote from: iggiv on Dec 27, 10:04 AM 2014
that's a wrong approach bud.

they may sleep for very very long time, you can very likely chose such sleepers. Or they may hit just the next spin after you bet. On average randomly picked numbers, no matter what, would get you breaking even if not the house edge. But because of the house edge you will lose its percentage. But that's not all yet. There are couple more factors. One is that if you with your regular play chose some numbers and some miss, you will see missing numbers come up very often. It's hard to understand this paradox in roulette, but that's how it works. It hits in your "weak spots". And another factor is that very likely choosing random numbers will not be random for you at all.
If you chose them yourself from your head. Because human being is tended to go by patterns even that he may think it is random what he  does. And roulette kills any patterns. So because of those 2 factors on a long run you will very likely lose much more than just house edge percentage.
yes one might pick random set of numbers first time but like iggiv says you'll end up picking same numbers over a period of time,so not random in the end,
like wise for Psimoes a human being is a creature of habit, so whats to say the old groupier doesn't drift in to auto mode for a few spins,then realises and changes the footprint.
How do you win at roulette, simple, make the right decision

iggiv

this goes through a mechanical device with too many variables used. Even if a human uses exactly the same strength and the wheel is turning exactly even all the time, still the result won't be in patterns. Well, maybe sometimes, but not predominantly. If it was like you say playing golf would be easy and everyone would be a champion. Tiger Woods would be just one of many. Mechanical interference messes up everything. I am talking about patterns in human head. Your head does not know at what strength you throw the ball. You just throw. But let's say you smoke some kind of cigarettes, you got used to the same brand usually. You drive a car every day on the same route, but one day you have to change it, and it may happen that you forget and automatically try to drive the way you used to.
Because this pattern is IN YOUR HEAD. But if you throw a ball to a basket at some distance, there is no way you will get it there all the time unless you are a skillful basketball player. Very few can be champions. So my guess is that very few are also capable of throwing the ball into the roulette wheel by exact patterns. There are some maybe, but very few.

Quote from: psimoes on Dec 27, 10:54 AM 2014
This makes sense. But then another crazy paradox emerges when the wheel is spun by a human. If said human has good psychomotor coordination, no matter how hard he/she tries to act random there will be patterns. More neurons to burn about this.

iggiv

let's take this scenario. A dealer has to put the ball into wheel pockets. He does not throw it, he puts where he likes. The wheel is not even turning. The dealer is honest. He wants to put the ball into random pockets. Just like roulette wheel is working. He does not care about the bets, just puts it somewhere. Like random. Sooner or later such dealer patterns will be cracked and many people will know
where he most likely will put the ball. Even that he will try to get numbers as random as possible.

but because a wheel is spinning and he throws the ball, clear patterns are not there.

psimoes

Well, just extrapolating. If A -> B -> C where A and B are constants then C is constant too. If A and/or B are variables, then C is variable too. If A=Tiger Woods and B=No Wind then C=Ball In the Hole. Likewise if A=Human Pattern and B=Dominant Diamonds then C=Dealer Sig. No?
[Math+1] beats a Math game

psimoes

Quote from: iggiv on Dec 27, 12:34 PM 2014
but because a wheel is spinning and he throws the ball, clear patterns are not there.

If the wheel spins and the ball is thrown at constant INITIAL velocity there will be patterns.

edited - sorry
[Math+1] beats a Math game

psimoes

Quote from: nottophammer on Dec 27, 12:01 PM 2014
like wise for Psimoes a human being is a creature of habit, so whats to say the old groupier doesn't drift in to auto mode for a few spins,then realises and changes the footprint.


nottophammer,

link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15055.msg127797#msg127797
[Math+1] beats a Math game

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