Even Odds

[psimoes]

The chance of a pattern of RRRRRRRRRRRR, BBBBBBBBBBBB, RRRRRRBBBBBB, RBRBRBRBRBRB or any other random combination of opposing ECs to repeat itself is:

(18/37)¹² = 0.486486486¹² = 0.000175731 or

0.000175731*100 = 0.0175731% or

1.75731/10000 or

1.75731 times every 10.000 outcomes or

1 time every 5690 outcomes.

We can arrive at a B&M casino table, look at the past history and bet immediately that the last pattern of 12 ECs won't repeat itself.

Why 12? Because there will be overlaps. Nothing guarantees two patterns back-to-back will not be identical except for the last bit, resulting in a LLLLLLLLLLLW. So a progression is necessary to act as buffer between losses; the longer the better and 12 steps seem adequate for the LW registry.

The negative progression I use on the following example is:

1-2-3, 2-4-6, 3-6-9, 4-8-12.

1st level: 1-2-3. If you win at step 1, profit is 1u and reset. If you lose at 1 and win at 2, profit is 1u and reset. If you lose at 1, 2 and win at 3, you break even and reset. If lose at 3 you move onto the next level:

2nd level: 2-4-6. Every time you win you stay at this level, resetting to 2, until you break even or reach a new high. Only then you reset to step 1 of the first level. If you reach step 6 and lose, you move onto the next level and stay there until you break even or reach a new high.

And so on.

You'll find out that betting for the repeat achieves the same results. Same odds. And that's what I did.

In practical terms:

You pick an Even Chance, say Even/Odd, note the last 12 outcomes and bet they will repeat in the same order for the next 12 spins. If spin#1 is Even, you'll bet Even for spin#13 and so on.

Full session from Spielbank Wiesbaden Table 2 from 2015, Jan 8th. attached.

OUT = outcome
Cy = cycle (of 12)
Dec = decision (odd/even)
L/W = reg.
Wa = wage
BR = bankroll

OUT      Cy      Dec      L/W      Wa      BR      
                                    
33      1      O                        
17      2      O                        
0      3      E                        
15      4      O                        
3      5      O                        
24      6      E                        
29      7      O                        
18      8      E                        
28      9      E                        
9      10      O                        
20      11      E                        
3      12      O                        
14      1      E      L      5      -5      
30      2      E      L      10      -15      
1      3      O      L      15      -30      
26      4      E      L      10      -40      
13      5      O      W      20      -20      
14      6      E      W      10      -10      
2      7      E      L      10      -20      
3      8      O      L      20      -40      
18      9      E      W      30      -10      
33      10      O      W      10      0      
28      11      E      W      5      5      New High
32      12      E      L      5      0      
18      1      E      W      10      10      New High
8      2      E      W      5      15      New High
1      3      O      W      5      20      New High
11      4      O      L      5      15      
18      5      E      L      10      5      
8      6      E      W      15      20      
8      7      E      W      5      25      New High
17      8      O      W      5      30      New High
9      9      O      L      5      25      
12      10      E      L      10      15      
7      11      O      L      15      0      
15      12      O      L      10      -10      
8      1      E      W      20      10      
23      2      O      L      10      0      
28      3      E      L      20      -20      
16      4      E      L      30      -50      
36      5      E      W      15      -35      
29      6      O      L      15      -50      
34      7      E      W      30      -20      
5      8      O      W      15      -5      
25      9      O      W      15      10      
26      10      E      W      15      25      
12      11      E      L      15      10      
9      12      O      W      30      40      New High
36      1      E      W      5      45      New High
12      2      E      L      5      40      
14      3      E      W      10      50      New High
19      4      O      L      5      45      
2      5      E      W      10      55      New High
2      6      E      L      5      50      
3      7      O      L      10      40      
8      8      E      L      15      25      
36      9      E      L      10      15      
12      10      E      W      20      35      
4      11      E      W      10      45      
29      12      O      W      10      55      
18      1      E      W      5      60      New High
16      2      E      W      5      65      New High
29      3      O      L      5      60      
18      4      E      L      10      50      
5      5      O      L      15      35      
8      6      E      W      10      45      
16      7      E      L      10      35      
29      8      O      L      20      15      
4      9      E      W      30      45      
6      10      E      W      10      55      
10      11      E      W      10      65      
27      12      O      W      5      70      New High
28      1      E      W      5      75      New High
1      2      O      L      5      70      
20      3      E      L      10      60      
4      4      E      W      15      75      
0      5      O      L      5      70      
7      6      O      L      10      60      
19      7      O      L      15      45      
19      8      O      W      10      55      
33      9      O      L      10      45      
36      10      E      W      20      65      
25      11      O      L      10      55      
32      12      E      L      20      35      
17      1      O      L      30      5      
17      2      O      W      15      20      
32      3      E      W      15      35      
22      4      E      W      15      50      
2      5      E      L      15      35      
13      6      O      W      30      75      
6      7      E      L      5      70      
14      8      E      L      10      60      
3      9      O      W      15      75      
33      10      O      L      5      70      
4      11      E      L      10      60      
23      12      O      L      15      45      
27      1      O      W      10      55      
7      2      O      W      10      65      
22      3      E      W      10      75      
26      4      E      W      5      80      New High
27      5      O      L      5      75      
7      6      O      W      10      85      New High
19      7      O      L      5      80      
4      8      E      W      10      90      New High
14      9      E      L      5      85      
12      10      E      L      10      75      
7      11      O      L      15      60      
30      12      E      L      10      50      
6      1      E      L      20      30      
11      2      O      W      30      60      
15      3      O      L      10      50      
5      4      O      L      20      30      
26      5      E      L      30      0      
31      6      O      W      15      15      
11      7      O      W      15      30      
30      8      E      W      15      45      
24      9      E      W      15      60      
13      10      O      L      15      45      
9      11      O      W      30      75      
14      12      E      W      15      90      
19      1      O      L      5      85      
26      2      E      L      10      75      
33      3      O      W      15      90      
16      4      E      L      5      85      
25      5      O      L      10      75      
13      6      O      W      15      90      
36      7      E      L      5      85      
14      8      E      W      10      95      New High
6      9      E      W      5      100      New High
22      10      E      L      5      95      
11      11      O      W      10      105      New High
36      12      E      W      5      110      New High
29      1      O      W      5      115      New High
3      2      O      L      5      110      
7      3      O      W      10      115      
17      4      O      L      5      110      
22      5      E      L      10      100      
31      6      O      W      15      115      
23      7      O      L      5      110      
31      8      O      L      10      100      
26      9      E      W      15      115      
29      10      O      L      5      110      
30      11      E      L      10      100      
34      12      E      W      15      115      
15      1      O      W      5      120      New High
6      2      E      L      5      115      
24      3      E      L      10      105      
26      4      E      L      15      90      
29      5      O      L      10      80      
32      6      E      L      20      60      
35      7      O      W      30      90      
33      8      O      L      10      80      
18      9      E      W      20      100      
1      10      O      W      10      110      
32      11      E      W      10      120      
1      12      O      L      5      115      
20      1      E      L      10      105      
35      2      O      L      15      90      
36      3      E      W      10      100      
18      4      E      W      10      110      
4      5      E      L      10      100      
22      6      E      W      20      120      
9      7      O      W      5      125      New High
12      8      E      L      5      120      
14      9      E      W      10      130      New High
36      10      E      L      5      125      
5      11      O      L      10      115      
35      12      O      W      15      130      
2      1      E      W      5      135      New High
16      2      E      L      5      130      
6      3      E      W      10      140      New High
3      4      O      L      5      135      
31      5      O      L      10      125      
24      6      E      W      15      140      
3      7      O      W      5      145      New High
32      8      E      W      5      150      New High
10      9      E      W      5      155      New High
20      10      E      W      5      160      New High
3      11      O      W      5      165      New High
18      12      E      L      5      160      
15      1      O      L      10      150      
31      2      O      L      15      135      
35      3      O      L      10      125      
21      4      O      W      20      145      
16      5      E      L      10      135      
34      6      E      W      20      155      
20      7      E      L      10      145      
15      8      O      L      20      125      
22      9      E      W      30      155      
22      10      E      W      10      165      
0      11      O      L      5      160      
7      12      O      L      10      150      
25      1      O      W      15      165      
15      2      O      W      5      170      New High
11      3      O      W      5      175      New High
23      4      O      W      5      180      New High
2      5      E      W      5      185      New High
3      6      O      L      5      180      
32      7      E      W      10      190      New High
10      8      E      L      5      185      
9      9      O      L      10      175      
32      10      E      W      15      190      
35      11      O      W      5      195      New High
13      12      O      W      5      200      New High
19      1      O      W      5      205      New High
23      2      O      W      5      210      New High
36      3      E      L      5      205      
28      4      E      L      10      195      
27      5      O      L      15      180      
10      6      E      L      10      170      
9      7      O      L      20      150      
20      8      E      W      30      180      
30      9      E      L      10      170      
24      10      E      W      20      190      
25      11      O      W      10      200      
5      12      O      W      10      210      
7      1      O      W      5      215      New High
17      2      O      W      5      220      New High
18      3      E      W      5      225      New High
13      4      O      L      5      220      
31      5      O      W      10      230      New High
9      6      O      L      5      225      
22      7      E      L      10      215      
14      8      E      W      15      230      
20      9      E      W      5      235      New High
26      10      E      W      5      240      New High
28      11      E      L      5      235      
12      12      E      L      10      225      
17      1      O      W      15      240      
16      2      E      L      5      235      
17      3      O      L      10      225      
13      4      O      W      15      240      
18      5      E      L      5      235      
10      6      E      L      10      225      
2      7      E      W      15      240      
15      8      O      L      5      235      
21      9      O      L      10      225      
20      10      E      W      15      240      
1      11      O      L      5      235      
3      12      O      L      10      225      
35      1      O      W      15      240      
34      2      E      W      5      245      New High
23      3      O      W      5      250      New High
5      4      O      W      5      255      New High
0      5      E      W      5      260      New High
15      6      O      L      5      255      
9      7      O      L      10      245      
9      8      O      W      15      260      
1      9      O      W      5      265      New High
17      10      O      L      5      260      
9      11      O      W      10      270      New High
5      12      O      W      5      275      New High
22      1      E      L      5      270      
7      2      O      L      10      260      
18      3      E      L      15      245      
13      4      O      W      10      255      
11      5      O      L      10      245      

[psimoes]

Every EC is 18 numbers against 19. Since the Zero is always against us, when tracking or betting I treat it as a part of the other 19, an opposing outcome in respect to the previous. Not that it matters much...

When RRRBRBR0BBRRB
                              \ here Zero represents B as opposed to the previous outcome (R).

[ego]

There is two things i like with this method.

1) There is no need for tracking and you can walk up to any table and start playing.
2) You use a very nice progression.

Cheers

[psimoes]

Thank you!

IDK if a D'Alembert would make better, though...

Attached  a PDF with the same session (less confusing).

[thelaw]

How about GLC's 1-3-5-7-9-11-...... start progression after 4 virtual losses-from w/L registry column (right after loss -reset after new high)?

May be an interesting grind system

[psimoes]

Grinding progressions seem to depend on series of WW to at least recover and I think this registry favours them. 

OTOH waiting for 4 virtual losses can be unnerving at the B&M. They happen quite a bit, but in the meantime you could miss a few important Ws. You'll trade time for safety and probably have to increase wages for better profits.

[thelaw]

Based on sample spins (from pdf) it appears about 1 unit profit every 10 spins (roughly 6 units per hour) with 1-3-5-7-9-... progression

Def a grind, but $30/hr at $5 table

[psimoes]

Good signs but it needs further testing. Few zeros in the sample and I just detected a small error: where a new high is at 260 it should be a Loss.

[thelaw]

Another possibility : combo of both systems -

Wait for 4 losses, then :

1-3-5- if lose all 3 then

2-6-10 - if lose all 3 then,

3-9-15 - etc......

Just my .02

[psimoes]

Another possibility : combo of both systems -

Wait for 4 losses, then :

1-3-5- if lose all 3 then

2-6-10 - if lose all 3 then,

3-9-15 - etc......

Just my .02

Thank you for the suggestion. When you win at 2 (2nd stage, 1st step), do you stay at that level or reset to 1?

[psimoes]

Disclaimer: to everyone, this is in the Notepad section so don't bet for real yet.

You're free to discuss and tweak it.

You can use the progression and the EC you like most.

You could go for runs of 10 or 14 as well. Nothing's set in stone.

Also, there's some simple math to support the bet selection but this hasn't any HG pretensions. It will tank sooner or later.

[thelaw]

Thank you for the suggestion. When you win at 2 (2nd stage, 1st step), do you stay at that level or reset to 1?

Personally, I wouldn't play any open ending progression, just another option.

I think the best option would be the 1-3-5 and stop on on +9 (hit and run method)


Do you think that this bet method has an advantage over simple ec, or is it all the same long term?

[psimoes]

Personally, I wouldn't play any open ending progression, just another option.

I think the best option would be the 1-3-5 and stop on on +9 (hit and run method)

Do you think that this bet method has an advantage over simple ec, or is it all the same long term?

Yes, we run these tests to see how High (or Low) it can go, but in the real world my usual goal is 10 units.

I think this can be a good method in the medium term. In the long term it will tank like the others. Being optimistic here, as short, medium and long terms are defined by Probability and ultimately Luck. The reason we should test systems for thousands of spins means any possible situation is more or less previewed, but a bad run might be lurking on the corner.

Attached another sample from today's session. I messed up with the files. There are 7 Losses in a row there but in the end it did very well.

[nottophammer]

Liked  the tittle

think odd/even best e/c to play from its uneven distribution arond the wheel,especially the right side  zero to 10,keep an eye as you could get to bet just 9 of the e/c numbers, see the left side of the wheels even numbers not hit in 21 spins,and there from one of atlantis's post 14- 4,10,34,32,10,19,30,31,31,31,32,23,36,36,3,9,9,25,33,29,4,28
just an observation

[psimoes]

Yes, first we establish the betting method for all ECs, then we adapt it to our personal preferences / beliefs.
I prefer betting R/B because they're so easy to spot, but then they're also easily laid out on the wheel just like the L/H, and it's also my belief the O/E bets are tougher for the dealer to have an influence on the outcomes. Hence why the Zero is painted in that shiny green: much easier for them to aim at. It couldn't be any other way, though...