Even Odds

[GLC]

The following is the worst run of the attachment in reply #18 played according to the rules of Full TrioPlay. 

We start in Basic Play where we increase our bet by +1 after each win; we remain at the same bet size after a loss.  We start our count with 1,2.  The left number or 1 represents our bet size and the right number or 2 represents the number of losses and always increases by 1 after each loss.  It starts at 2 instead of 1 to give us a head start so we don't catch up to it too quickly.  Because, once the left number is larger than the right number, we can't make that bet but rather we reset back to 1,2.

AP1 goes into effect once the left number subtracted from the right number = 5.  You see that at the 7th decision down (L   2,7     -8)  7 â€" 2 = 5.  When we go to AP1, we increase our bet (left number)  by +2 instead of +1.

We go to AP2 when the right number is equal to 12.  In AP2 we increase our bet size by +3 instead of +2.  Once we go to AP1 or AP2 we stay at that level until we either reach a positive balance or the left number is greater than the right number.  This is a sort of safety brake to keep our bets from escalating out of control.

L   1,2     -1
L   1,3     -2
L   1,4     -3
W 1,4     -2
L   2,5     -4
L   2,6     -6
L   2,7     -8                     AP1  Up 2 after a win
L   2,8     -10
L   2,9     -12
L   2,10   -14
L   2,11   -16
L   2,12   -18                    AP2  Up 3 after a win
W 2,12   -16
W 5,12   -11
W 8,12   -3
W 4,12   +1          +2     (Note that we only bet 4 because we never bet to reach more than +1)
L   1,2     -1                  Basic
L   1,3     -2
L   1,4     -3
W 1,4     -2
L   2,5     -4
W 2,5     -2
W 3,5     +1           +3
L   1,2     -1                    Basic
L   1,3     -2
W 1,3     -1
W 2,3     +1           +4
L   1,2     -1                     Basic
L   1,3     -2
L   1,4     -3
W 1,4     -2
L   2,5     -4
L   2,6     -6
W 2,6     -4
L   3,7     -7
L   3,8     -10                    AP1  Up 2 after a win
W 3,8     -7
L   5,9     -12
L   5,10   -17
W 5,10   -12
W 7,10   -5
L   9,11    -14
W 9,11    -5
L   11,12  -16                     AP2  Up 3 after a win
W 11,12  -5
L   14,13  -19   
W 14,14  -5
W   6,14  +1            +5   (Here's another case where we only bet enough to reach +1)
L   1,2       -1                      Basic
W 1,2        0
W  1,0      +1            +6     Basic
L   1,2     -1
W  1,2     0
W  1,0     +1              +7    Basic
W  1,0     +1              +8    Basic
W  1,0     +1              +9    Basic

That should give you an idea how Full TrioPlay's progression method compares to others.

As you can see, we didn't go too deep in the hole.  19 units being the largest draw down and we still won 9 units.

I'm not saying Full TrioPlay is infallible, it certainly can have losing runs, but it does quite well compared to other bet methods I've played around with.

GLC

[psimoes]

Been trying this out 6 times in the last 2 days... so far, it sems to hold up, at least the way I play it: I start with playing REVERSE the color (of 12th number in history), when I reach a new high (or break even or get a win in any recovery bets) I switch to playing SAME color (as the 12th previous spin), when I reach a new high (or break even or get a win in any recovery bets) I then switch to even/odds (again, REVERSE then SAME), and finally switch again to high/low. If I get into recovery bets, I note when I was (red/black SAME for example) and after I get to at least even, I continue where I left off (so continuing my example, I just "finished" red/black same so I switch to even/odds REVERSE). I basically play to win once (or break even) with each of the 6 ways this can be played, and then I switch betting method completly.  Highest I went so far is recovery level 2 (3-6-9), bet 2 so I guess luck has been on my side; had one session end after 6 spins, one after 7 spins, and one went to the 1st recovery (2-4-6) level for 3 spins. I'm licking this as a "bankroll padder", and I especially like that you just walk (or log in my case) to any table and just start betting right away! That's my 2 cents!

Thank you for testing. Ego mentioned "bet for the regression" as well, and I've been thinking about that ever since.

Your method is very worth considering, and a good alternative to waiting for 12 new spins to let Random do its thing. 

Yet personally I'm still not sure when to change bets. You see, Random doesn't care if we're winning or losing, so I'll eventually try it every 12 spins, like an extended version of the Author's System (bet same/opposite spin by spin ) regardless of the current bankroll status. Hoping he progression holds up, of course.

Cheers!

[psimoes]

GLC, thanks for the progression. Does AP1/2 stand for "Advanced Play"? I'll read it more carefully later.

In the meanwhile, I tweaked my own progression (not tested yet):

There are 12 steps (because of the 12 spins), divided by four levels because we can't use a 12-step Martingale and a linear progression is still too risky and possibly ineffective, so it's a mix of both:

1-2-3, 2-4-6, 3-6-9,   4- 8- 12 \
       |          |         |              |      > ---- every third step the same as in a linear progression
1-2-3, 4-5-6, 7-8-9, 10-11-12 /     

so the next logical set:

5-10-15 6-12-18 7-14-21 8-16-24

and the next:

9-18-27 10-20-30 11-22-33 12-24-36

1-2-3 is conservative (a real marty would be 1-2-4, 2-4-8 etc), but when we win at the third step that level has paid for itself so it gives us a second opportunity. A more agressive marty would also pay for itself and profit one unit, though.

[SamNL]

I think that GLC is actually talking about the Full Trioplay method.

I have looked around here and found a PDF that Bayes posted 5 years ago.
I have posted it with this message as attachment.
I think this is what GLC is talking about.

[atlantis]

Another Bet Selection idea for this (someone may like it):

Start off betting for a match.
If win with a match - play next spin for a match.
If lose due to no-match - then play next spin for a no-match
In other words - follow the (w)ins or (l)osses.

However, If losing 4 times in succession continue with alternate match/no-match (or no-match/match) betting until a win occurs - then revert back to follow the win etc....

Or - If losing 4 times in succession continue with alternate match/no-match (or no-match/match) betting VIRTUALLY until a win occurs - then revert back to follow the win etc....


12 recorded                 Bet+Result             Next bet                +/-
=========             ========         ========         ===
E                                    E   W            for match                  +1
O                                    E   L             against match            -1
E                                    E   L              for match                  -1
E                                    E   W            for match                  +1
O                                    E    L            against match            -1
O                                    O   L             for match                 -1
O                                    O   W           for match                  +1
O                                    O   W           for match                  +1
E                                    E    W           for match                  +1
E                                    O    L            against match            -1
O                                    E    W           against match           +1   
E                                    O    W           against match           +1

7W; 5L


Add in a suitable progression and maybe bet the R/B EC as well the same way to get occasional "double wins".

Regards,
A.

[psimoes]

I think that GLC is actually talking about the Full Trioplay method.

I have looked around here and found a PDF that Bayes posted 5 years ago.
I have posted it with this message as attachment.
I think this is what GLC is talking about.

Thanks, I'll delve into it later! Been busy doing some more tests...

[psimoes]

Another Bet Selection idea for this (someone may like it):

Start off betting for a match.
If win with a match - play next spin for a match.
If lose due to no-match - then play next spin for a no-match
In other words - follow the (w)ins or (l)osses.

Thanks. This sounds like the Author's System, which I just tested with the tweaked progression and the results are great! Not because of the progression really, but because the LW reg. is formidable.

Just take a look.
Attached  a session from today's SBWB, with [Same As Last 12 / Different Than Last 12], [Same As Last 12 / Retrack 12], the Author's System and a variation.

[psimoes]

I think I've went through a 1000 spins with the original bet selection, with both real and RNG tests and it always ends up in profit thanks to the progression, but the drawdowns of a bad run are scary. A less extreme LW reg is more convenient to play at the B&M IMO.

[psimoes]

Another Bet Selection idea for this (someone may like it):

Start off betting for a match.
If win with a match - play next spin for a match.
If lose due to no-match - then play next spin for a no-match
In other words - follow the (w)ins or (l)osses.

However, If losing 4 times in succession continue with alternate match/no-match (or no-match/match) betting until a win occurs - then revert back to follow the win etc....

Or - If losing 4 times in succession continue with alternate match/no-match (or no-match/match) betting VIRTUALLY until a win occurs - then revert back to follow the win etc....


12 recorded                 Bet+Result             Next bet                +/-
=========             ========         ========         ===
E                                    E   W            for match                  +1
O                                    E   L             against match            -1
E                                    E   L              for match                  -1
E                                    E   W            for match                  +1
O                                    E    L            against match            -1
O                                    O   L             for match                 -1
O                                    O   W           for match                  +1
O                                    O   W           for match                  +1
E                                    E    W           for match                  +1
E                                    O    L            against match            -1
O                                    E    W           against match           +1   
E                                    O    W           against match           +1

7W; 5L


Add in a suitable progression and maybe bet the R/B EC as well the same way to get occasional "double wins".

Regards,
A.

I see the difference: where the Author's blindly bets same/opposite at a steady pace, your method depends upon the wins and losses to go for the change, much like Noreilles has done with the original bet selection.

About betting double ECs for occasional double wins, we should account for the double losses, and lots of times there will be "double evens" so to speak. If the selection is backed-up by a trusty LW, I don't see why not.

[psimoes]

Quoting myself to keep track of the original premises:

The chance of a pattern of RRRRRRRRRRRR, BBBBBBBBBBBB, RRRRRRBBBBBB, RBRBRBRBRBRB or any other random combination of opposing ECs to repeat itself is:

(18/37)¹² = 0.486486486¹² = 0.000175731 or

0.000175731*100 = 0.0175731% or

1.75731/10000 or

1.75731 times every 10.000 outcomes or

1 time every 5690 outcomes.

Although an EC was accounted as 18/37 the premises are still inaccurate, because we're still tracking and betting continuously for exactly 12 spins, in fact ignoring the house edge. It's more important than it seems.

How many unique combinations of numbers, or patterns, in a run of 12 can we truly expect, excluding the house edge?

For a single number run there's two possible outcomes: R or B.
For a two number run it's 4: RR, BB, RB, BR.
For a three number run it's 8: RRR, BBB, RRB, BBR, RBB, BRR, RBR, BRB.

And so on. It's always doubling up: for 4=16, 5=32, 6=64 ...  for 12'run = 4096.

Or for example, if for 3 = 8, then 12 divided by 3 = 4 and 8⁴=4096.

One run of 12 (18/36)¹² = 0.5¹² = 0.000244141 is expected to be unique around 2.44141 in 10000 spins or 10000 / 2.44141 = once every 4096 spins.

Now, remember the 5690 spins? Those had the house edge included. 5690 - 4096 = 1594. That's a lot more then 2.7%. If we get around this problem maybe we could improve the LW.

We should anticipate something like this RRRRRRBBBBBB BBRRBBRRBBRR 0  RRRBBBRRRBBB.

If we can't track and bet continuously for every run of 12 spins, we'll have to skip an outcome for every 36..

[psimoes]

In short, it´s two ( R or B) to the power of twelve (run). 2^12=4096.

Someone more versed in Math could try and find a meaning for that difference of 1594. It´s significant enough to probably explain why the "pattern-breaker" systems out there fail like the others.

I´ll do more tests when I have the time.

[Rewster88]

Psimoes,

Tnx for explain! Speaking of the patternbreaker. I still have that program from ophis to test a few systems like ken 4 numbers an saw etc, its a fine program ! does anyone still use this? And is it possible to update this with a few new systems?

R

[nottophammer]

The chance of a pattern of RRRRRRRRRRRR, BBBBBBBBBBBB, RRRRRRBBBBBB, RBRBRBRBRBRB or any other random combination of opposing ECs to repeat itself is:

(18/37)¹² = 0.486486486¹² = 0.000175731 or

0.000175731*100 = 0.0175731% or

1.75731/10000 or

1.75731 times every 10.000 outcomes or

1 time every 5690 outcomes.

We can arrive at a B&M casino table, look at the past history and bet immediately that the last pattern of 12 ECs won't repeat itself.

Why 12? Because there will be overlaps. Nothing guarantees two patterns back-to-back will not be identical except for the last bit, resulting in a LLLLLLLLLLLW. So a progression is necessary to act as buffer between losses; the longer the better and 12 steps seem adequate for the LW registry.

The negative progression I use on the following example is:

1-2-3, 2-4-6, 3-6-9, 4-8-12.

1st level: 1-2-3. If you win at step 1, profit is 1u and reset. If you lose at 1 and win at 2, profit is 1u and reset. If you lose at 1, 2 and win at 3, you break even and reset. If lose at 3 you move onto the next level:

2nd level: 2-4-6. Every time you win you stay at this level, resetting to 2, until you break even or reach a new high. Only then you reset to step 1 of the first level. If you reach step 6 and lose, you move onto the next level and stay there until you break even or reach a new high.

And so on.

You'll find out that betting for the repeat achieves the same results. Same odds. And that's what I did.

In practical terms:

You pick an Even Chance, say Even/Odd, note the last 12 outcomes and bet they will repeat in the same order for the next 12 spins. If spin#1 is Even, you'll bet Even for spin#13 and so on.

Full session from Spielbank Wiesbaden Table 2 from 2015, Jan 8th. attached.

OUT = outcome
Cy = cycle (of 12)
Dec = decision (odd/even)
L/W = reg.
Wa = wage
BR = bankroll

OUT      Cy      Dec      L/W      Wa      BR      
                                    
33      1      O                        
17      2      O                        
0      3      E                        
15      4      O                        
3      5      O                        
24      6      E                        
29      7      O                        
18      8      E                        
28      9      E                        
9      10      O                        
20      11      E                        
3      12      O                        
14      1      E      L      5      -5      
30      2      E      L      10      -15      
1      3      O      L      15      -30      
26      4      E      L      10      -40      
13      5      O      W      20      -20      
14      6      E      W      10      -10      
2      7      E      L      10      -20      
3      8      O      L      20      -40      
18      9      E      W      30      -10      
33      10      O      W      10      0      
28      11      E      W      5      5      New High
32      12      E      L      5      0      
18      1      E      W      10      10      New High
8      2      E      W      5      15      New High
1      3      O      W      5      20      New High
11      4      O      L      5      15      
18      5      E      L      10      5      
8      6      E      W      15      20      
8      7      E      W      5      25      New High
17      8      O      W      5      30      New High
9      9      O      L      5      25      
12      10      E      L      10      15      
7      11      O      L      15      0      
15      12      O      L      10      -10      
8      1      E      W      20      10      
23      2      O      L      10      0      
28      3      E      L      20      -20      
16      4      E      L      30      -50      
36      5      E      W      15      -35      
29      6      O      L      15      -50      
34      7      E      W      30      -20      
5      8      O      W      15      -5      
25      9      O      W      15      10      
26      10      E      W      15      25      
12      11      E      L      15      10      
9      12      O      W      30      40      New High
36      1      E      W      5      45      New High
12      2      E      L      5      40      
14      3      E      W      10      50      New High
19      4      O      L      5      45      
2      5      E      W      10      55      New High
2      6      E      L      5      50      
3      7      O      L      10      40      
8      8      E      L      15      25      
36      9      E      L      10      15      
12      10      E      W      20      35      
4      11      E      W      10      45      
29      12      O      W      10      55      
18      1      E      W      5      60      New High
16      2      E      W      5      65      New High
29      3      O      L      5      60      
18      4      E      L      10      50      
5      5      O      L      15      35      
8      6      E      W      10      45      
16      7      E      L      10      35      
29      8      O      L      20      15      
4      9      E      W      30      45      
6      10      E      W      10      55      
10      11      E      W      10      65      
27      12      O      W      5      70      New High
28      1      E      W      5      75      New High
1      2      O      L      5      70      
20      3      E      L      10      60      
4      4      E      W      15      75      
0      5      O      L      5      70      
7      6      O      L      10      60      
19      7      O      L      15      45      
19      8      O      W      10      55      
33      9      O      L      10      45      
36      10      E      W      20      65      
25      11      O      L      10      55      
32      12      E      L      20      35      
17      1      O      L      30      5      
17      2      O      W      15      20      
32      3      E      W      15      35      
22      4      E      W      15      50      
2      5      E      L      15      35      
13      6      O      W      30      75      
6      7      E      L      5      70      
14      8      E      L      10      60      
3      9      O      W      15      75      
33      10      O      L      5      70      
4      11      E      L      10      60      
23      12      O      L      15      45      
27      1      O      W      10      55      
7      2      O      W      10      65      
22      3      E      W      10      75      
26      4      E      W      5      80      New High
27      5      O      L      5      75      
7      6      O      W      10      85      New High
19      7      O      L      5      80      
4      8      E      W      10      90      New High
14      9      E      L      5      85      
12      10      E      L      10      75      
7      11      O      L      15      60      
30      12      E      L      10      50      
6      1      E      L      20      30      
11      2      O      W      30      60      
15      3      O      L      10      50      
5      4      O      L      20      30      
26      5      E      L      30      0      
31      6      O      W      15      15      
11      7      O      W      15      30      
30      8      E      W      15      45      
24      9      E      W      15      60      
13      10      O      L      15      45      
9      11      O      W      30      75      
14      12      E      W      15      90      
19      1      O      L      5      85      
26      2      E      L      10      75      
33      3      O      W      15      90      
16      4      E      L      5      85      
25      5      O      L      10      75      
13      6      O      W      15      90      
36      7      E      L      5      85      
14      8      E      W      10      95      New High
6      9      E      W      5      100      New High
22      10      E      L      5      95      
11      11      O      W      10      105      New High
36      12      E      W      5      110      New High
29      1      O      W      5      115      New High
3      2      O      L      5      110      
7      3      O      W      10      115      
17      4      O      L      5      110      
22      5      E      L      10      100      
31      6      O      W      15      115      
23      7      O      L      5      110      
31      8      O      L      10      100      
26      9      E      W      15      115      
29      10      O      L      5      110      
30      11      E      L      10      100      
34      12      E      W      15      115      
15      1      O      W      5      120      New High
6      2      E      L      5      115      
24      3      E      L      10      105      
26      4      E      L      15      90      
29      5      O      L      10      80      
32      6      E      L      20      60      
35      7      O      W      30      90      
33      8      O      L      10      80      
18      9      E      W      20      100      
1      10      O      W      10      110      
32      11      E      W      10      120      
1      12      O      L      5      115      
20      1      E      L      10      105      
35      2      O      L      15      90      
36      3      E      W      10      100      
18      4      E      W      10      110      
4      5      E      L      10      100      
22      6      E      W      20      120      
9      7      O      W      5      125      New High
12      8      E      L      5      120      
14      9      E      W      10      130      New High
36      10      E      L      5      125      
5      11      O      L      10      115      
35      12      O      W      15      130      
2      1      E      W      5      135      New High
16      2      E      L      5      130      
6      3      E      W      10      140      New High
3      4      O      L      5      135      
31      5      O      L      10      125      
24      6      E      W      15      140      
3      7      O      W      5      145      New High
32      8      E      W      5      150      New High
10      9      E      W      5      155      New High
20      10      E      W      5      160      New High
3      11      O      W      5      165      New High
18      12      E      L      5      160      
15      1      O      L      10      150      
31      2      O      L      15      135      
35      3      O      L      10      125      
21      4      O      W      20      145      
16      5      E      L      10      135      
34      6      E      W      20      155      
20      7      E      L      10      145      
15      8      O      L      20      125      
22      9      E      W      30      155      
22      10      E      W      10      165      
0      11      O      L      5      160      
7      12      O      L      10      150      
25      1      O      W      15      165      
15      2      O      W      5      170      New High
11      3      O      W      5      175      New High
23      4      O      W      5      180      New High
2      5      E      W      5      185      New High
3      6      O      L      5      180      
32      7      E      W      10      190      New High
10      8      E      L      5      185      
9      9      O      L      10      175      
32      10      E      W      15      190      
35      11      O      W      5      195      New High
13      12      O      W      5      200      New High
19      1      O      W      5      205      New High
23      2      O      W      5      210      New High
36      3      E      L      5      205      
28      4      E      L      10      195      
27      5      O      L      15      180      
10      6      E      L      10      170      
9      7      O      L      20      150      
20      8      E      W      30      180      
30      9      E      L      10      170      
24      10      E      W      20      190      
25      11      O      W      10      200      
5      12      O      W      10      210      
7      1      O      W      5      215      New High
17      2      O      W      5      220      New High
18      3      E      W      5      225      New High
13      4      O      L      5      220      
31      5      O      W      10      230      New High
9      6      O      L      5      225      
22      7      E      L      10      215      
14      8      E      W      15      230      
20      9      E      W      5      235      New High
26      10      E      W      5      240      New High
28      11      E      L      5      235      
12      12      E      L      10      225      
17      1      O      W      15      240      
16      2      E      L      5      235      
17      3      O      L      10      225      
13      4      O      W      15      240      
18      5      E      L      5      235      
10      6      E      L      10      225      
2      7      E      W      15      240      
15      8      O      L      5      235      
21      9      O      L      10      225      
20      10      E      W      15      240      
1      11      O      L      5      235      
3      12      O      L      10      225      
35      1      O      W      15      240      
34      2      E      W      5      245      New High
23      3      O      W      5      250      New High
5      4      O      W      5      255      New High
0      5      E      W      5      260      New High
15      6      O      L      5      255      
9      7      O      L      10      245      
9      8      O      W      15      260      
1      9      O      W      5      265      New High
17      10      O      L      5      260      
9      11      O      W      10      270      New High
5      12      O      W      5      275      New High
22      1      E      L      5      270      
7      2      O      L      10      260      
18      3      E      L      15      245      
13      4      O      W      10      255      
11      5      O      L      10      245

if the above was flat bet does it make +1

[psimoes]

For flat betting it doesn't matter how many rows of wins or losses are in the LW registry (fourth column from left). You just have to count the total wins vs. total losses. If the goal is one unit we of course stop when in plus. For that we count the wins vs. losses like on the scoreboard in a football match.

[psimoes]

Flat-betting is a good point. This is still a work in progress, so let's consider it for a moment:

The original idea is all about chances.

It's the same principle that says a single EC has the chance of appearing once every two spins, so on the second spin we'll bet for the opposite of the last outcome.

Chance is one thing, reality is another. A string of Reds when we're betting on Black means trouble. So we could bet for same as last instead, and a string of RB means trouble again. Roulette 101. Thousands of EC betting methods and progressions try to deal with those situations.

So, a run of 12 ECs has a chance of appearing once every 4096 spins, but nothing stops it from hitting much more than that.

Same principle, just on a grander scale. Megalomaniac, if it wasn't for the betting procedures.

We'd have to place ONE bet per run for it to be equally proportional. We can't do that. Or can we?

How about flat-betting every 12 spins? We keep the same tracking and betting procedure as before, but we also keep a score of LW of the last 12 decisions. If the wins are greater than the losses, we win our bet for the last run. If not, we start with a negative progression, only that each step will last 12 spins.