THE FIFTH SYSTEM

[TwoCatSam]

People

I have worked long and hard on this and it MAY STILL NOT  BE PERFECT!!  I am not the best at math, so I'd check the figures before betting.   I have only tested this by looking for occurrences, not for money won. 

This system is for dozens or columns or dozens AND columns OR dozens and columns combined.  How you play it is up to you.  That way, if it does not win I can stand back and say, "Well, you big dummy!!  You have done this or that!!"

Look at the sheet.

There are four betting lines.  This was developed for Riverwind, where you can bet .25.  The top is .25, then .50, then .75 and then 1.00.  We will work off the one-dollar bet line so it is easier to understand.

With this system, there is an extremely high probably of winning and I can not figure it.  I asked others to and they could not either.  Where is Bayes when you need him?

Look at the bottom line, the one-dollar line.  Notice the first two bets are in red.  The 1 and 3.  For the first two bets are on the last two dozens to come.  Or columns.  Or if you play two at once (you'll need two sheets and a good brain) dozens and columns.  Look for the last two won, i.e., dozen 1 and 3.  You bet those doz/col at one unit each and if you lose, raise it to three units each and bet again.  Last two to come.

If you lose that, we go into the long, drawn-out recovery.  But what are the chances of losing?  Baring zero, just to make calculations easier, you have a 66.666% chance of hitting your first bet and around an 89% chance of hitting your second if your first misses. 

Now------------some industrious soul should check my math on that before we go any further.  If there is no interest, I will abandon the thread and ask a moderator to kill it. 

TwoCat

[buffalowizard]

Hi Sam

Sorry I never pick things up first time.

So all you're doing is betting last two dozens (or columns) with a 1,3 progression (and recovery thereafter)

Whys it called the fifth system ?

A confused buffalo

[TwoCatSam]

Buff

Yes.   It is called The Fifth System because on my thread "My Trip to Riverwind", I said I bet five systems when I only bet four.  I was checking on this system, not betting and I made that mistake.

So all you're doing is betting last two dozens (or columns) with a 1,3 progression (and recovery thereafter)

You are betting a Martingale on the first two bets.  If you lose, you are 8 units down.  You must then recover that 8 + 1 for your profit. 

In case no one understands what is meant by the last two doz/col to come, here it is.

1
2
3.........bet 2 and 3

1
1
1
1
2.......bet 1 and 2

1
2
2
2........bet 1 and 2.

After your first two bets, assuming you've lost and are in recovery, your last two col/doz MUST BE DIFFERENT.  You cannot have

1
2
2

or
2
3
3

or
1
3
3........etc

It must be...............

any doz/col
2
3

Are you with me?  Can I get an "amen"?

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

The bad news:  This system can and will fail.  However, we hope you are at home in your jammies when the "Devil" rears his ugly head.  It can be beastly slow to play and should be played as a companion system to some other system so you don't go to sleep.  It would best be played with a robot online!  It is rather hard to "get the hang" of, but if you spend a couple of bucks and have the worksheet laminated you can use a vis-a-vie erasable marker and erase when you need to.  You can make dots to keep your place so you don't have to keep it in your mind.  A bookmark, so to speak!

The good news:  This system has a good win rate.  (Can't figure it!)  Also, it is a "pauseable" system meaning that you can go to the can and not worry.  You can leave the casino and take up right where you left off when you return.

The disclaimer:  I play for fun.  You should, too, if you play at all.  This is not to win enough to buy a villa in France, but to win burger and fries or get comped for a free buffet.

I'll wait.............

Sam

[Nickmsi]

Hi Sam . . .

I just happen to have an Excel Tracker sheet for this same system, ie. betting the last 2 Dozens or Columns to show.

You can choose to play either Dozens or Columns or Both.

I put in 2 of your progressions, you can input any others if you wish to try them.

The only thing different is on a Win the sheet reduces the progression level by 1 instead of reverting back to 1.  This helps in the recovery process.

Enjoy

Nick

[TwoCatSam]

Nick

Thanks so much for that.  I think it is a little different from what I am proposing.  I will explain on and you can see.

OK

We lost bet one and two and we are in recovery.  From this point on, we must win the same amount twice.  Look at the bottom line on the chart.  The third bet is $5.00.  (Remember, we are 8 units down.)  We win the first time and we win 5 and are down 3.  We win the second bet and we are up 2.

I feel I have made a mistake on the sheet (harmless) but I should tell you about it.  Forget about the 4.50 under the 3.  It never comes into play.  My error in creating the sheet.

Ok

Suppose we get to bet 3 and we lose.  Look to the left.  "Lose first. Do not bet 2nd.)  After losing this bet, we are down 8 + 10 or 18 units.  We must recover that in two bets.  Look to bet 4 and the top bet.  9.5.  Winning twice is 19 - 18 = our 1 profit.

Suppose we win the first bet at 3 and lose the 2nd.  We would be down 8 minus the +5 on the first bet we won and -10 on the second bet we lost.  -8+5-10=-13.  We need 13 units +1 for profit.  Now, have won the first and lost the second, we go down to the bottom figures under the 4.  We bet 6.75 and win twice.  That is 13.5, so a low proift.  Don't know why I figured it that way, but I did.  EDIT:  I told you my math is suspect in anything I do.  Before any bloke bets a quarter on this, they should sit down with a calculator and check me out.

To lose the whole schemer, you would have to lose several times.  That is the last two dozens would always be followed by the "odd" dozen.  Example:  1 2 3, 3 2 1, 1 3 2.  I know from my study of the VLS Lw Methodology, this is rare--very rare happening--over the span of six or seven bets.  And you never bet twice in a row after the first two bets.

Why?

Your bets are 1 2 and you win.  Then you would either have 1 2 2 or 2 1 1 and that is not dissimilar dozens on the last two spins.  Compredhe?

Sam

[Nickmsi]

OK Sam . .

Try this one and see if the progression are what you want.

I simply made it for Dozens only as that was easier to code.

Cheers

Nick

[TwoCatSam]

OK........soon as I can....

[TwoCatSam]

Nick

I'm attaching a sheet.  Now you know I'm not the sharpest tack in the box, so take this with a grain of salt.

Look at #17 where it won.  Then it lost.  You go to the 19 bet and it should be the 13.5 on the bottom of my sheet.  Why?  You won 9.50 on the first bet.  Now your amount to win is less than 19x2.

Look at when the 11 comes.  You can never have ww on the sheet.  It must be w l w or w no bet w.  Why.  Your last two dozens must be dissimilar.  9 and 34 were dozens 1 and 3.  The 1 won.  Then you have 3 1 1 and the last two cannot be the same.  You would have to pause--bathroom--and come back and find the 1 2; 1 3; or 2 3 for a bet.  Must not be the same.

Wrote this in a flash, but I think it's right.

Is no one else interested??

Humbug!!

Sam

[GLC]

Sam, I'm interested.  I like your bet method.  I think it has interesting possibilities.

I will look at it and see if I see any way to improve it.  I don't know why, but I always feel like I have to try to improve things.  Go figure.

If a person didn't want to increase their bet amounts so rapidly, they might incorporate another aspect to the progression.  What aspect?  Slowing the increase down by adding a third or even more wins to recover instead of just 2.

It's true that getting a double win happens often when betting double dozens, but like you know there can still be some dry spells where you don't get that double win for quite a while.

Even 3 in a row is pretty common and I'm not that afraid of playing for 4 in a row.  Doesn't happen as often, but at the same time it slows the increase in bet size down quite a bit.

Thanks for the post.

George

[TwoCatSam]

George

Any progression you might come up with will be studied and appreciated.  I am currently working with Nick to get the betting scheme down correctly and then we'll study the progression part.  You may have a much better one than I.

This is not just getting one of the last two dozens to come, but those last two dozens must be different.  Looking at at through the eyes of the VLS Lw Methodology, it would look like:  LLWLWLWLWL OR LLLLLL.  In all the time I tested that system about 4 Ls in a row is all I can remember.  Hitting the WL repeating pattern is just as rare.  Most of them were LWWLLWWWWWW.

Sam

[Chris555p]

@ George

In your opinion what is the best progression for Double dozen where vast majority of the win
is within 4 spins LLLW. Thanks.

[RouletteGhost]

Ive attempted betting the previous 2 dozens before. Was not very successful

Ill give it a go again
Maybe a virtual loss is needed

[TwoCatSam]

Ghost

This is betting the last two dozens that came only if they are different.  There may be absolutely no difference, but that's the way I'm going to do it. 

And the progression is not the old 1 3 9 treble up we're used to.  This one is different.

Sam

[GLC]

@ George

In your opinion what is the best progression for Double dozen where vast majority of the win
is within 4 spins LLLW. Thanks.

Here's my 2 cents on progressions.

Firstly, there is always a series of Losses vs Wins that's so out of balance that no progression, even a flat bet, can stand against it.  That's why we need stop losses and rules for playing like never drink and play, never play when you're tired or depressed or under any kind of extreme emotional distress, etc...

One of the reasons I like Full TrioPlay is that it has a built in safety brake in case the losses start running away from the wins. 

If you increase your bet size after a loss and decrease it after a win, when you have a high concentration of losses vs wins your bet size will shoot up rapidly, you will drop down into the hole like a pelican diving for a fish and it will take forever to dig out, if ever.

Therefore, we need to drop back more after our wins than we increase after our losses.  Or, as one fella suggested, when we get a big draw down and recover say half or even more of our draw down, we should just take the loss and reset back to the beginning of a new attack.

Here's the kind of progression I've been working on.  Let's say we don't increase our bet size until we've lost 2 times in a row, then we increase our  bet size by 2 units.  Now we must get 2 wins in a row to decrease our bet size, but instead of decreasing it by 2 units, we decrease it by 3 units.  By dropping back further on a win than we increase on a loss, we compensate for what is sometimes called drift, (the tendency for our bets to gradually grow larger due to losing more spins than we win on average).  We reset any time we reach a new high bank balance.

Since most of our runs will resolve within a few bets, say 6 - 10,  we will still reach break even or even a new high balance most of the time.  It's only on attacks where we start out losing a lot that we might get back to betting 1 unit and still be in the hole.  This is unavoidable due to the zero's in roulette and standard deviations of spin results.  If we always reached a positive balance while decreasing more on a win than we increase on a loss, we'd have the grail and it ain't going to happen.

Other progression ideas have been explored by Silverstone.  For example, let's call this 1st stage the Base level.  We increase our bet size by 1 unit after each loss and decrease our bet size by 1 unit after a win.  If we get 2 wins in a row, we decrease by 2 units after the second win.  If you continue winning and you win 3 times in a row you decrease by 1 again after the 3rd win and if you're lucky enough to get a 4th win, you decrease another 2 units, etc...  When you get back to 1 unit bet size or you reach a new profit, you start a new attack.

A 2nd stage starts if you get behind in your loss to win ratio by 5 losses.  When this happens you decrease you bet size after by 2 units after the 1st win and by another unit if you get 2 wins in a row.  When you get back to only being behind 5 losses, you can drop back to the Base level bet system.

A 3rd stage starts if you get behind by 10 losses.  You could drop back 2 units after each win.  You can play this way until you get back to being down by 9 losses or less at which time you use the 2nd stage bet progression.

A 4th stage starts if you get behind by 15 losses.  You drop back by 3 units after each win. etc...

Remember that we always increase our bet size by 1 unit after each win.

It's also not necessary to drop back to a lower stage bet method as you work your way back down the bet size line.  You could stay at the same bet method until you get all the way back to only betting 1 unit.

The above is a concept only.  None of the methods insure a win.  You need to test different movement sizes for your personal risk tolerance and bankroll. 

The above can be adapted to dozens, double dozens, lines, streets, etc... 

And, of course, it can be played on any even chance bet: craps, baccarat, sic bo, coin flipping, two sports teams that are evenly rated, horse or dog racing on even chance odds, etc...

This is just a way to play so that you can mitigate the effects of a bad run which happens on a regular basis.  It helps keep your bet sizes lower and your draw downs shallower.  But it's not absolute.  There are still loss to win series from he11 that can't be overcome by any bet method.

You still need to have a stop loss number and a realistic win target.  You decide these.

GLC