Nice little earner!!

[mogul397]

The thing that always amazes me is how it ALWAYS seems easier  to end up
losing a bunch... Have a losing streak..... But mostly impossible to experience
a nice winning streak.

People correctly talk about those strings of reds and blacks that are few and far between,
Even results of other bet selection methods. But it is darn easy and frequent to do it
on the negative side.

One problem in gambling method and choice is that the methods always involve some
mechanical method or notion. That seems to be contradictory to how reality lays itself
out. Don't know what the alternative is. But even in this thread there is "play for
2x then do this or that". More mechanics.

[bleep24]

Hi all,
The most losses that I have seen with NLE is 11.  I have seen a post where someone claimed to have seen 20.  Are they playing 00/air-ball/RNG.  We all know about those.  If 20 is `live` spins then it must be a rare exception.   I only play live.

I cannot see how playing chops or trying to guess which way it is going to go has any merit: you will be wrong.   2`s becoming 3`s are about 50% and that is the basis of NLE: play all E/C 2`s.  If there are 2 opps at same time play both: if there are 3 opps. play 3.  If I am down say 6 units and 3 opps. come up I would play 2 units on each.  I keep a rolling tally and am not aiming to recover all lost units on 1 spin.
I have seen many winning runs of between 5 and 10 in length.  I do not play on after 3 in a row even though they may become 4,5,6 or more as the longer the chain the less frequently it happens and you can be betting other opps.  instead, but each to their own.
Rules for NLE are not set in stone and people should decide their own playing style/tweaks.
NLE is a slow, steady earner!   (in my experience)     Just for the hell of it I have looked through some past (not mine) Dublinbet spins.  I did not spot any long losing runs.
I will take a look to see if playing on after 3`s is a good way to go.   (excellent if you get a chain of 10)
Bleep24    (brian)






Brian.

[ozon]

We know that this is one of the most stable bet selection, I remember how I tested and drawdawns over -10 were very rare,
I do not know if it somehow changes the probability, but remember that i try to wait at -10 and then play flat ,profit target +3 units , stop lose -3 units, from test made it look very well.
But I not played for so long because the wait was long. If you have time you can try to play flat, but the best would be to excel tracker.

[RouletteGhost]

I wish i had airball spins to run this against

I suppose same as real wheel results

Airballs great. Screen with no dealer breathing down your neck

Play 3 ECs at once etc

[mogul397]

Drawdown as in units that you are negative? Not unit of play in the
D'alenbert progression?

It doesn't take much.  1+2+3+4 =10 at the 4th level, and it doesn't
take much to get there and hang around there. My plan was (and would still be)
to play  to the 6th, which would be $105. That isn't too bad.

Is 10 units what you mean? I seem to remember some odd reports of testing
and getting to the 15th or 20th level. Sounded a bit unbelievable.

I have to remind people of one of the original and best methods I ever bought
decades ago. "Mr C's craps business program". Spoke to him on the phone and knew
someone (Jim Ferr "Jim the system man) who met him at a casino once. Claimed he
made his living at it.

It basically was to wait for 2 don't pass at a craps table and then bet pass. He was
a little cloudy about if it was a "2 don't or 3 don't table" if you waited for 2 or 3. And
if you played one decision or chased it one more. Intuitive, but very close to the hip.
Over decades I never dug in, cause it was a little vague. I did try it a few years ago,
but at a craps table, believe it or not, was having a hard time getting 2 don'ts.
Lots of time. And once watched a hot roll of like 15 passes, while I waited for my
signal don't.


So yes. It is stable as you say.

[mogul397]

But the bottom line is that it is well within table limits and most bankrolls to be banked up to
the 10th level. I always keep wondering how far bleep would chase it or how far he has.

And from there, how long it took him to dig out.

I would still consider testing a fib. 2 wins and you're home.

1,1,2,3,5,8 = 19 units.  $200 for $5 bets, and 6 bet levels.  13 and 21 give you 52 units. for
2 more levels, but it gets expensive.

And I still wonder about the "reverse fib". Take the unit losses until the inevitable ladder
climb to profit. It's so much superior to the reverse marty, because you don't NEED to
have consecutive wins/losses. You can muddle around a bit.

[DoctorSudoku]

Mogul,
An off-topic question. It was interesting to see you mention Jim Ferr.

I used to visit his craps Web site several years ago; it is now gone. By any chance, do you know if Jim Ferr is still alive? Just wondering.

[nottophammer]

Bri
Have you passed on this?
If not what is the final way to play?

Cheers

[bleep24]

Hi Notto,   I will post a reply for you tomorrow.

[mogul397]

Mogul,
An off-topic question. It was interesting to see you mention Jim Ferr.

I used to visit his craps Web site several years ago; it is now gone. By any chance, do you know if Jim Ferr is still alive? Just wondering.

I don't know. I sent him an email a few months ago with no response.

He stopped by my house in the mid 90's. He was born in NJ.  Lived in Montebello CA.
His birthday was Oct 15th. He and his wife stopped by my house. They were following
the foliage down from maine to then visit his home town. We went to Foxwoods and they
continued from there to NJ.

He would be late 80's and his wife Helen (blind) was 9 years older than him.

Have his phone # somewhere. Should call.

He was a dear friend.

[bleep24]

Hi Notto,
Yes I do still play this but like everyone else am always looking for the HG (if only).
I either play 2 to become 3 or 3 to become 4 (Not mixed)    I am using +1/-1.  Adjusting next stake according to spin outcome so may be betting one option, or 2 or all 3 at same time  so it is not a straightforward up and down prog.  Very rarely have I had to bet 10 units per EC and I just plough on through it as it will turn and we are not talking 0000`s in total stakes. (Usual range is 4/5/6 units per EC.)
If playing 3 to become 4 there are less opportunities and individual and total stakes will reflect this.

EC`s are 50/50 bets so every time you get a 2 (or 3) you have a 50/50 chance of winning.

The reason for playing all 3 EC`s collectively is to avoid any of them stopping at 2 for a prolonged time.  Its rare for all 3 EC`s to be stopping at 2`s. (or 3`s) at same time.
Bugbear with this is keeping track of units to stake but it is a small price to pay for a winning system.

Good luck,
Brian                                     (I only play on-line `live` dealer)

[nottophammer]

Thanks

[mogul397]

Bleep,

I know I've asked this before. But give me the math.

What is your unit size.
What is your bank (that you use in anticipation of playing up to 10 units?)
What has been your max drawdown as you observe it?

Thanks

[bleep24]

Hi Mogul,

Unit size is 1 unit = 1 GBP      Bank 100 units         I do not keep records so off the top of my head max DD  is the range 60 units.

Do not forget that although I use +1/-1 this is loosely based and I use a rolling tally.  If I want to bet 1 unit but 2 E/C`s come at same time I will put 1 unit on each.  Say that they both come good I knock 2  units off total etc. but as I say I do not stick quite strictly to this.

Cheers,
Brian

[mogul397]

Thanks Brian.

For one thing I probably would only chase one EC.

Don't know if this will sound weird. That amount for a bank sounds reasonable
and expected though.  Thing is, that I would have to wrap my head around it
to actually play. But I can see that. Part of accepting and playing a system is
digesting all that.

Outside bets for me are $2 min. I thought they were $5, and found out by accident
that they were $2. Either way, I am used to the $5, and almost consider it a waste
of time to do less, so that's not a problem. So $5 units is $500. That's a commitment.
I just wanted someone with experience to say it out loud.

I think my hope and maybe expectation is to be able to do something risking less money.
That is MY problem. So then packaging together what I need to do is what has to happen.

Doing this is not on my front burner yet. But I still am WATCHING it on my front burner.
And agree and believe that it works. IF you are willing to invest the time to wait for
the variance to swing and can bank the variance then I think there's no problem. That is
how I see it.

So thanks for delineating that for me.

The one.
THE ONLY

MOGUL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!