Random Thoughts

[falkor2k15]

Who decides what is overly complex ?
If one tries to find a way to the impossible it's not a good advice to avoid the complex.

Need explore simple solution first. If no success then move to more complex, i.e. parallel and VdW. For example, we can guarantee a repeat will occur next dozen cycle just from monitoring 2 constants based around 1 stream.

We can measure the dozen stream as cycles with Defining Element - supported by the first repeat on SD Dozens, i.e. 1231 11 = DDDS.

d100 dsd10  >>>  d200 dsd20 
d100 dsd10  >>>  d200 dsd20 
d100 dsd10  >>>  d200 dsd20 
d100 dsd10  >>>  d110 dsd12 
d010 dsd10  >>>  d020 dsd12 
d010 dsd01  >>>  d011 dsd02 
d001 dsd01  >>>  d002 dsd02 
d001 dsd01  >>>  d002 dsd02 
d001 dsd01  >>>  d011 dsd02 

d = Defining Element
dsd = SD Dozens

d001 dsd01  >>>  d002 dsd11 

Here start with DE = 3, SD Dozen = Different
Finish as DE3 repeat and SD DOZEN Same = 1, Different = 1 (no repeat)
So DE3 repeat but not SD Dozens, but next cycle always have a repeat no matter what. And no need to measure Order or Cycle Length. And there's 21 outcomes/sequences.

[Herby]

Need explore simple solution first. If no success then move to more complex

I thought you throw away other ideas just for not to get the things too complex.

To understand your last shown idea I'll do a programming.

[falkor2k15]

No, we only eliminate what doesn't work. We still keep complex ideas in case the simple ones fail - or that any advantage gained from complex methods warrant using them over the simpler ones - but the simple methods need to be explored first regardless.

[falkor2k15]

I read Manrique used to say that everything is designed to break even and lead to house edge, so regardless of bet selection he would concentrate on dispersion and parachuting.

And I'm wondering: why is one kind of repeat better than another kind of repeat? And why is one type of parachuting, i.e. changing payout odds at similar cost, better than another type of parachuting?

[RayManZ]

Could somebody explain these statistics for me?

In the VdW theory we have 16 different AP's.

That gives us this:
W â€" 256 times
L â€" 48 times
LW â€" 104 times
LL â€" 32 times
LLW â€" 36 times
LLL â€" 16 times
LLLW â€" 10 times
LLLL â€" 10 times

But how does someone calculates this?
How do you get these AP's:
123
234
345
456
567
678
789
135
246
147
357
258
468
159
369
579

To these stats:
W â€" 256 times
L â€" 48 times
LW â€" 104 times
LL â€" 32 times
LLW â€" 36 times
LLL â€" 16 times
LLLW â€" 10 times
LLLL â€" 10 times

Does anybody knows this?

[falkor2k15]

I must say I was thinking about that recently and considered revisiting VdW. When I counted each individual AP a few years back they all came in varying frequencies across different datasets - there was no pattern - but somehow we ended up with 50/50 every time.

[RayManZ]

No not looking for pattern ect. Stop that! That does not work...

I want to know how priyanka got these stats for all the AP's.

W â€" 256 times
L â€" 48 times
LW â€" 104 times
LL â€" 32 times
LLW â€" 36 times
LLL â€" 16 times
LLLW â€" 10 times
LLLL â€" 10 times

[falkor2k15]

I think I know the answer now... I can simulate it... if I find answer then I let you know by email or something?

[RayManZ]

Should there be a formula for something like this?

We know we have 16 options. 16x16=256 is that the first one?

W=256=16x16?

[falkor2k15]

I don't know? How can translating to formulas help? Is it to check simultaneous equations or inequalities?
W=256=16x16

Is that assuming all 16 APs are equally likely?

[maestro]

falkor cannot believe that you still banging your flat earth head about it...is so simple...if you see Priyanka sheet about cycles and your random stream is no zero numbers you will get something like that with only 3 states of system...0,"S","D"...you put them in colum like that


s
0
0
d
0
s
0

you will find out that 50% of the time repeat will happen on second spin...ex



0
s
    so here will be either "0" or "S"

[falkor2k15]

maestro, I'll come back to you.

No not looking for pattern ect. Stop that! That does not work...

I want to know how priyanka got these stats for all the AP's.

W â€" 256 times
L â€" 48 times
LW â€" 104 times
LL â€" 32 times
LLW â€" 36 times
LLL â€" 16 times
LLLW â€" 10 times
LLLL â€" 10 times

1	3			LW
2	4			LW
8	4+9			LL
3+8				W
1				W
1				W
3+8				L
1	4+9	10		LLW
1	4+9	10		LLW
1	3			LW
2	4			LW
1	9			LL
1				W
2				W
1				W
1	4+9	10		LLW
2				W
1				W
1	3			LW
1				W
1	4+9	10		LLW
2	4			LW
1	4+9	10		LLL
8	4+9			LL
1				W
1				W
1				W
1				W
3+8				W
2	4			LW
8				W
2				W
3+8	10			LW
1	3			LW
1	4+9			LW
1	3			LW
2	4			LW
1				W
8				W
3+8	10			LW
1	4+9			LW
1	9			LW
3+8				L
2				W
1				W
8	4+9			LW
1	9			LL
1	9			LW
1	3			LW
1	3			LW
1				W
3+8				W
1	3			LW
2	4			LW
2				W
8				W
8	4+9	12		LLW
8	4+9			LL
2	4			LW
2				W
1	3	5		LLW
2				L
1	4+9	10		LLL
2				W
3+8				W
2	4			LW
8	4+9			LL
1	9			LW
2				L
3+8				W
1	9			LL
3+8	10			LL
2				W
1				W
1				W
1				W
1	3	5	12	LLLL
8				W
2	4			LW
2				L
1	3	5		LLW
3+8				W
1	3			LW
1	3			LW
2				L
1	4+9			LW
2				W
2				W
1				W
1				W
2				W
1	3	5		LLW
3+8				W
3+8				W
1				W
2				W
2				L
1				W
1	4+9			LW
1	3	5		LLW
3+8	10			LW
1				W
2				L
1	9			LW
1				W
1	4+9	10		LLW
1	9			LL
3+8				L
1	4+9	10		LLW
1	9			LL
1				W
1				W
1				W
8				W
1				W
8				W
2	4	10	6	LLLL
8				W
1	3	5		LLW
1				W
2	4			LW
1	3			LL
2				W
1				W
1				W
1				W
8				W
2				L
1	9			LW
1				W
1	3			LW
1				W
1				W
1	4+9	10		LLW
1	9			LL
8	4+9			LW
2				W
1	9			LW
2				L
2	4			LW
1				W
2				L
2	4	10		LLW
1				W
8				W
1	3			LW
1	3			LL
3+8	10			LL
1	3			LL
2				W
3+8				L
3+8	10			LW
2	4	10	6	LLLW
1				W
2				W
1				W
3+8	10			LW
1				W
2				W
2	4			LW
1	3	5	12	LLLL
2				W
1	9			LW
1				W
2				W
8	4+9			LL
3+8				L
1				W
8	4+9			LW
8				W
1	3			LL
1	3			LW
8				W
1	9			LW
2				W
1				W
1				W
2				L
2				W
3+8	10			LL
1				W
2				W
3+8				W
3+8				W
2				L
2				W
2	4			LW
1	4+9			LW
1	3	5	12	LLLL
3+8				L
8				W
2				L
1				W
2	4	10	6	LLLL
2				W
1				W
3+8				W
1				W
1	9			LW
1	4+9	10		LLW
1				W
8				W
2	4	10		LLW
1	3	5		LLW
1	3			LL
2				W
3+8				W
1	3			LW
8	4+9			LW
2				W
8	4+9	12		LLL
2				L
2				W
2				L
3+8				L
1				W
1				W
1	4+9			LW
2				W
1	3			LL
1	9			LW
1				W

[falkor2k15]

falkor cannot believe that you still banging your flat earth head about it...is so simple...if you see Priyanka sheet about cycles and your random stream is no zero numbers you will get something like that with only 3 states of system...0,"S","D"...you put them in colum like that


s
0
0
d
0
s
0

you will find out that 50% of the time repeat will happen on second spin...ex



0
s
    so here will be either "0" or "S"

maestro, are you referring to VdW, Cycles or both used together? If just Cycles then which constant?

[maestro]

none of it...just the way sheet was done i dont know if is better or not or brings edge or not..see picture

[falkor2k15]

Nice!  That's much tighter than my method... I bet it will result in edge! 

Are we meant to play your 3 state method by stitching bets or does "stitching bets" refer to a separate method for gaining edge that doesn't require the concept used in the 3 states?