Random Thoughts

[falkor2k15]

Interesting stats here:
Defined by 2 then 1:

CL1: 89 0 0 0
CL2: 88 24 14 17
CL3: 49 19 19 15
CL4: 12 19 13 11
CL5: 2 2 4 3

When increasing the span to the 2nd repeat we should play for Quad 1 for the first 3 spins, and Quad 2 for spins 1-2 only. Chips should be weighted 2:1 I reckon.

[falkor2k15]

Defined 2 to 2 has more results concentrated on quad 2 compared to previous test:
CL1: 0 138 0 0
CL2: 34 133 18 36
CL3: 20 67 19 32
CL4: 21 27 15 11
CL5: 5 10 5 4

[falkor2k15]

Here's a first look at my defining element strategy (WIP) using only flat-betting and a maximum of 2 repeats per cycle:



Obviously, there's no edge yet - but I'll be looking to progress these cycles through multiple repeats based on the previous defining quads - till an actual win occurs to close off the extended cycle.

Download: link:s://:.sendspace.com/file/c2r2oi

For Cycle Length 3 (2nd most common to CL2) we don't have a suitable bet in terms of the defining element - so perhaps we could bet the last 3 quads to try to close it off and eliminate the need for expansion.

[falkor2k15]

I'm testing out some cycles strategies and the graphs begin going north and then go south so I guess even this cycles framework hasn't escaped the law of the large numbers contrary to what Priyanka said?

[falkor2k15]

Here's the criteria for the test:

Outer Cycle Length = 1
Inner Cycle Length = 2 or 3
Spin = 1 or 2

The above stats were flagged up in the short term as most profitable in terms of betting the defining quad.

In both data sets I used it started out high then went low.

[falkor2k15]

Perhaps a new Russian doll has to be brought in whenever there's a repeat of a repeat in order to stay ahead? Does that mean every time I start a new game I will always go ahead at first?

[falkor2k15]

RESULTS ARE IN !!!!!!!!!!!!!

And what an AMAZING result it is: Roger Federer More takes victory in the outer court to win this year's Roulette championship against next year's champion, Van der Waerden, at an uncontested 4 sets to nil: 56, 31, 11, and 2 !!!!!!!



Let's hear it for them, folks: BIG IT UP for Roger and the people's coach: Priyanka - sponsored by Edge Cycles!!!!!!!!!



Defined by Same = 65%!!!!

The above was wrapped up based on the Defining Quad; for Outer Cycle Lengths I am getting similar results to original:
31.55718879   39.82544786   23.56453836   5.052824989

Edit: they are different! More CL1 than CL3!

[falkor2k15]

Outer Cycle Length
32.3840147 (same)   67.6159853 (different)

[falkor2k15]

Cycle Length 4 has dropped to 5%! I am going to get a final confirmation on those percentages... there might be more strategies possible with this Russian doll... but I fear the law of large numbers.

[falkor2k15]

6764   8744   5150   1065
31.13750403   40.25226718   23.70759103   4.902637757

[falkor2k15]

So the new strategy to play cycle lengths as revealed by the order above:
If inner CL3 then play for CL3 again, but if CL2 then play both CL2 and CL3 to try to go for an Outer Cycle Length 2 closure.
If CL1 then play for CL1,2, and 3 to go for an Outer CL3 closure. It's unlikely to go to length 4 on the outside.

Could potentially look at combining that with what the other Russian doll revealed re: the defining quad:
Outer Cycle Length = 1
Inner Cycle Length = 2 or 3
Spin = 1 or 2

(Or just try to close with defining quad ASAP).

[falkor2k15]

If the Law of the Large numbers is to be taken seriously then the above strategy is only valid for about 10 inner cycles and 3 outer cycles max? So that would be about 30 spins?

[falkor2k15]

OK, this this is a new way of thinking and playing in order to overcome the law of large numbers - Star System eat your heart out!  And this is without considering VdW.

Level 1: We should play for CL 2. If we win then we play CL2 again.

Level 2: When we lose a CL2 game we then switch to a series of inner cycle games till we close 1 outer cycle. If we win then we reset back to CL2.

Level 3: If we lose at the outer cycle level then we can play a series of inner cycle games multiplied by 2-4 outer cycles (about 30 spins in total as established previously). If win reset to level 1.

Level 4: Another Russian doll would need to be found otherwise we go back to level 1 but increase the number of units.

[falkor2k15]

^^Groundbreaking - agreed?  I think Priyanka needs to give me a pat on the back for that one. 

[Tomla021]

great work on cycles im sure Priyanka is clapping