Random Thoughts

[P.A]

This bet selection, espoused by Priyanka, is one of the best example, of how we 'dilute' the variance.
Btw, Bleep, also espoused this in the other thread.

This bet selection, if only for betting BLACK/RED,
will always AROUND 50%.
Thus if u only bet that , the variance will hit, now and then..
But,
If u bet THREE together,B/R,H/L,O/E...

then the variance, of each, will "DILUTE" by the other two ...

It is like betting a B/R, on THREE table, at the same time, where a single table's variance, will off set by the other two tables.

for example,
ask three persons, to throw a coin.

note down, the results, in order, of 1st, 2nd, 3rd person,
and viola, u will see the variance, will not long, and the winning will CLUSTERED, with huge win, even with flatbet.
Thus the worst is, ALL three produce VARIANCE, at the same time!..which is HIGHLY unlikely.

[Priyanka]

PA - boss, betting on all 3 ECs don't help on variance. Pls don't mislead people.  I would strongly suggest you to do some reading on variance.  It is not a simple loss avoidance. Playing all of them together is nothing but playing three individual games together leading to negative expectation.  You will lose at a faster rate.  If I remember right STEVE explicitly mentioned this in your thread. 

[RayManZ]

Ofcource it doesn't. Every EC has his own variance or fluctuation.

I made three graphs of the same bet.

1. RB
2. HL
3. OE

The graph is made on bets. I just track per W or L.
Per 10 bets i check how many W's i have and put that in the graph. So every new bet is a new ratio of W and L of the last 10 bets. This way you can see the variance easy.

[P.A]

  It is not a simple loss avoidance. Playing all of them together is nothing but playing three individual games together leading to negative expectation. 

I mean, if u bet with TRIGGER,
but, if..,
U mean, u have POSITIVE EXPECTATION???!!
100%,All the way?!
[after all the spins combined?]

THANKS GOODNESS!!!
seriously,...
That a HG...
Then I am out of league here, I mean out of topic.
Sorry, for posting wrong idea...I am out of here...
sorry for misleading...

[falkor2k15]

Falkor - Great. One thought, the way I play the spins, just playing Red and black amounts to the following graph, using the spin data that you have produced. Hopefully I will be able to share all the ideas that I have before the end of this thread so that you can define one using these ideas to play the way you are comfortable with.

Was that graph using a positive progression?

[Priyanka]

Was that graph using a positive progression?

Yes

[falkor2k15]

This hasn't gained any edge for some reason: (after 100,000 spins)

Simulator settings: RED/BLACK only and ZERO disabled, i.e. Betvoyager style.

Normal


1st bet opposite when W > 50%


All bets opposite when W > 50%


I guess we should be following the wave instead of going against it?

[falkor2k15]

Flat-betting Normal actually made more profit than doubling up per set:


Have received suggestions of possible modifications, so will test those next... we want to try to beat 50.6% wins (or at least stay on the winning side)

[falkor2k15]

Unfortunately, the suggested mod performed badly against the above data (perhaps it would perform better if Ws were less than 50%):

[falkor2k15]

This data hovered above and below zero before ultimately finishing with more total losses, so I am going to use this as a benchmark for future tests:

Highest balance was 20204

[falkor2k15]

For this data, the suggested mod has finished negative again, but at least transformed the losses into more wins. Highest balance was 20203.

[falkor2k15]

My original mod (First bet opposite), but on all bets, has finished similarly (+20104 max but flat-betting) to the suggested mod - though it hasn't converted as many losses into wins:

[falkor2k15]

My other original Mod (all bets opposite) took longer to recover but finished positive and converted more losses to wins (slightly higher percentage than the suggested mod):


I need to try this doubling up and compare more closely to the suggested mod.

[falkor2k15]

The suggested mod seems to handle the negative data set better than the logical way of betting opposite to the arithmetic progressions:

How to combine the mod with the normal way of playing? (next project)

[Big EZ]

I just started looking at this.

These are the combinations where the arithmetic progression can "win"

123
135
147
159   = all these can only "win" on an ODD spot (3-5-7)

234
246
258
269  = all these can only "win" on an EVEN spot (4-6-8)     the 9 spot would be a no bet because either could win

345
357
369  =  only "win" on ODD spot

456
468  =  only "win" on EVEN spot

567
579  =  =  only "win" on ODD spot

678

Falkor...in your data is it possible to look at what combinations win more or less if that's possible?


Just thinking out loud here..I could be totally off base and just stating the obvious ..dont chastise me if wrong or have wrong thought process Priyanka