Random Thoughts

[falkor2k15]

I just figured out an important pattern here:

21 - Dozen 2
17 - Dozen 2. At least one repeat of a dozen
24
12
36 - Dozen 3
18 - Dozen 2
29 - Dozen 3. At least one repeat of a dozen
2
17 - Dozen 2.
17 - Dozen 2. At least one repeat of a dozen
19
10
16 - Dozen 2
7 - Dozen 1
11 - Dozen 1. At least one repeat of a dozen
20

This Non-Random event of when a section has to repeat has been converted below into "finite" cycles:

Everythign that happens in roulette happens in a cycle. A cycle starts and ends when a number repeats.

For the dozens, lets see that it will be like this.

19
25
18 â€" This is a dozen cycle of length 2

19
20 â€" This is a dozen cycle of length 1

18
31
1
30 â€" This si a dozen cycle of length 3.

Likewise, this can also be converted into a finite cycle as well:

Second sample 111 131 111 122
111 â€" All dozens are same. Again based on our basic premise. We will play for this to repeat.
131 â€" You start playing after the first spin here. You will be playing for all dozens to be the same. Second spin is 3. Loss. Now you have two outcomes. Three dozens in a row or one dozen to repeat.
111 â€" You start playing after the first spin. You will be playing for either three dozen in a row or one repeat to happen. So you play for dozen 1. Win.

111 131 111 - Cycle 1
111 122 .... - Cycle 2

And this is also a "finite" cycle based on 9 spins (always fixed to 9 or till an AP is formed?)

RBR BRR RBB
123  456  789

So it could be like
RBRBR - cycle 1
RRR - cycle 2
RBB... - cycle 3

Am I right?

[Priyanka]

Am I right?

what other bet selections would encompass a certain win within 9 spins while just playing either red or black for on average ±2.3 times per cycle

[falkor2k15]

I don't really understand what rrbb is saying in that quote, but I guess I can test it to see if the same/different percentage remains the same over 1000 > 10,000 cycles?

I guess the Law of the Third can be represented as a finite cycle - providing we see each cycle through till there are 12 repeats?

In terms of breaking down the same/different percentages in cycles something doesn't seem right here in the spreadsheet:

There are 2 columns for "Cycle Lengths", but only the right column appears to be valid (the left column represents instead the section position)
So... where the "cycle" is defined by a different dozen, a Cycle Length of 2 should really be a Cycle Length of 1 (and Cycle Length 1 should not be zero)?

[atlantis]

Another way of monitoring and classifying dozen triplet results

Recording the "movements" of 27 dozen triplets.

3 = first dozen result to give a starting dozen from which to base the subsequent movements that will occur:

s = same dozen (when a doz repeats)
l = left move (doz 3 to 2; doz 2 to 1; doz 1 to 3)
r = right move (doz 1 to 2; doz 2 to 3; doz 3 to 1)

3   2   1 sll = repeat
1   1   1 sss = same
1   3   1 slr = different
1   2   2 srs = repeat
2   3   3 srs = repeat
3   3   3 sss = same
3   3   2 ssl = repeat
2   2   2 sss =same
1   3   1 llr = repeat
3   2   3 llr = repeat
2   1   3 lll =same
3   1   1 srr = repeat
3   2   1 lll = same
3   1   3 lrl = repeat
1   1   3 rsl = different
3   2   2 sls = repeat
3   3   1 rsr = repeat
2   1   1 rls = different
1   3   1 slr = different
3   3   2 lsl = repeat
1   1   2 lsr = different
2   2   2 sss = same
3   3   2 rsl = different
2   1   1 sls = repeat
1   3   2 sll = repeat
3   2   2 rls = different
1   2   1 lrl = repeat

27 triplet outcomes (based on movements)
===============
repeat = 14
same = 6
different = 7

Interesting that "repeats" are also clearly ahead on movement based recording too! 

A.

[falkor2k15]

Haven't figured this out, but what i observe with some certainty, at least on this bet, is some similarity to an EC bet Priyanka mentioned and demonstrated in a video posted in this reply last September 11:

link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15870.msg138322#msg138322

In that video, an EC bet is selected by spinning the wheel enough times to observe 18/19 unique numbers to show up.  Then, the 17 number EC bet is selected from all the unhit numbers left. 

In this video, the observation window is shorter, but notice none of the unique numbers that did show up in the first nine spins are included in the 17 number EC bet. 



In this series, you can clearly see that the 17 number EC bet is constructed on a "rolling" basis.   For example, the 19 hits.  So it is not included in the makeup of the next 17 number EC bet, replaced by a 6, a number which has not yet shown up at all. 


Now here is an 11 number bet, which i would interpret as a play on a dozen, made up, like the EC bet, on a rolling basis, consisting of sleepy sleepers. 


Here is an 8 number bet that i would interpret as some kind of quad play, made up, again, of sleepers on a rolling basis.  The 20 has never hit, and gets an extra boost when it comes time to include some kind of progression. 

Here we are back to an EC bet, this time made up of 18 numbers, ten of which get a boost according to some progression scheme. The second bet gives an extra .5 to number 1 after a loss, indicating an up-after-a-loss progression of sorts. 

Now down to a 5 number bet, constructed the same way as the others, probably representing some custom made line bet.  You can see how chips are added after a loss.   

So what i suppose, at least in this scenario, is that there are at least four games (EC, dozens, quads, lines) going on with inside numbers (custom constructed with rolling sleepers), besides the .05 (minimum) red EC game going on for whenever there are no bets to be taken on any of the other four games. 

It's not clear the logic that switches between the games, but it MIGHT have something to do with Priyanka's VdW scheme where the betting goes back to the .05 red whenever there are "dead runs" or nothing to bet on in any of the other games. 

Below find a breakdown of the rolling number EC game demonstrated in the video link posted above:

17   0.05   l         17            
3   0.05   w         3            
16   0.05   w         16            
16   0.05   w                     
11   0.05   l         11            
9   0.05   w         9            
6   0.05   l         6            
27   0.05   w         27            
23   0.05   w         23            
2   0.05   l         2            
31   0.05   l         31            
12   0.05   w         12            
3   0.05   w                     
25   0.05   w         25            
18   0.05   w         18            
6   0.05   l                     
19   0.05            19            
13   0.05            13            
35   0.05            35            
11   0.05   l                     
12   0.05   w                     
18   0.05   w                     
11   0.05   l                     
9   0.05   w                     
17   0.05   l                     
27   0.05   w                     
5   0.05   w         5            
28   0.05   l         28            
24   0.05   l         24   (19 unique numbers showed, now time to construct a 17 number bet from sleepers)         
5   8.5   l   1,4,7,8,10,14,15,20,21,22,26,29,30,32,33,34,36               
33   8.5   w   1,4,7,8,10,14,15,20,21,22,26,29,30,32,33,34,36                  
22   8.5   w   1,4,7,8,10,14,15,20,21,22,26,29,30,32,33,34,36                  
36   8.5   w   1,4,7,8,10,14,15,20,21,22,26,29,30,32,33,34,36                  
15   0.05   l      blank (not shown on video)               
17   0.05   l      blank (not shown on video)               
24   0.05   l      blank (not shown on video)               
17   0.05   l      blank (not shown on video)               
36   0.05   w      blank (not shown on video)               
25   0.05   w      blank (not shown on video)               
11   0.05   l      blank (not shown on video)            
21   0.05   w      blank (not shown on video)               
13   8.5   l   1,2,3,4,7,8,10,14,16,20,23,26,29,30,31,32,34                  
3   8.5   w   1,2,3,4,7,8,10,14,16,20,23,26,29,30,31,32,34                  
10   8.5   w                     blank (not shown on video)
21   8.5   l   1,2,4,6,7,8,14,16,19,20,23,26,29,30,31,32,34                  
3   8.5   l                          blank (not shown on video)
33   8.5   l   1,2,4,6,7,8,14,16,19,20,23,26,29,30,31,32,34                  
34   0.05   w                     
25   8.5   l   1,2,4,6,7,8,14,16,19,20,23,26 29,30,31,32,35                  
26   8.5   w   1,2,4,6,7,8,12,14,16,19,20,23,29,30,31,32,35                  
8   17   w   1,2,4,6,7,12,14,16,18,19,20,23,29,30,31,32,35                  
2   8.5   w                     
13   8.5   l                     
20   8.5   w                     
34   0.05   w                     
18   0.05   w                     
18   0.05   w                     
25   0.05   w                     
18   0.05   w                     
35   0.05   l                     
12   8.5   w   1,4,5,6,7,9,12,14,16,19,23,27,28,29,30,31,32

That's very good detective work from Still on video 1! Perhaps Priyanka is keeping a tally of Cycle Types for ECs, dozens, quads, and lines, and whichever one falls behind, i.e. sleeps, she bets on their "stitched" number counterparts? Not sure why the number bets, substituted by a few additional sleepers, have to add up to a specific number though.

The EC Cycles start out like this:
LL
LL
LL
LL
LL
LL
LHH
H Then the bet is placed on high numbers, which wins
HLL
LL
LL
LH Then a bet is placed on high numbers, which wins
H Then a bet is placed on high numbers, which wins

[falkor2k15]

When the 3rd Dozen was played as stitched sleeping Numbers, the defining dozen was also trailing behind:
11
121
11
122
2312
22
22
22
213 (oops: mistake!)
323
33
3212
22
23 Bet dozen 3

Tally (Defining Dozen)
1 = 3
2 = 7
3 = 3

[falkor2k15]

Below are the cycles for the earlier video that Still referred to (note: there are exactly 20 cycles after 19 unique numbers showed).

Cycle   Same/Different   Number, Bet, W/L
      17   0.05   l         17           
LL      3   0.05   w         3           
LL   s   16   0.05   w         16           
LL   s   16   0.05   w                     
LL   s   11   0.05   l         11           
LL   s   9   0.05   w         9           
LL   s   6   0.05   l         6           
      27   0.05   w         27           
LHH   d   23   0.05   w         23           
      2   0.05   l         2           
HLH   d   31   0.05   l         31           
      12   0.05   w         12           
HLL   d   3   0.05   w                     
      25   0.05   w         25           
LHL   d   18   0.05   w         18           
LL   d   6   0.05   l                     
      19   0.05            19           
LHL   d   13   0.05            13           
      35   0.05            35           
LHL   s   11   0.05   l                     
LL   d   12   0.05   w                     
LL   s   18   0.05   w                     
LL   s   11   0.05   l                     
LL   s   9   0.05   w                     
LL   s   17   0.05   l                     
      27   0.05   w                     
LHL   d   5   0.05   w         5           
      28   0.05   l         28           
LHH   d   24   0.05   l         24   (19 unique numbers showed, now time to construct a 17 number bet from sleepers)         
      5   8.5   l   1,4,7,8,10,14,15,20,21,22,26,29,30,32,33,34,36               
HLH   d   33   8.5   w   1,4,7,8,10,14,15,20,21,22,26,29,30,32,33,34,36                 
HH   d   22   8.5   w   1,4,7,8,10,14,15,20,21,22,26,29,30,32,33,34,36                 
HH   s   36   8.5   w   1,4,7,8,10,14,15,20,21,22,26,29,30,32,33,34,36                 
      15   0.05   l      blank (not shown on video)               
HLL   d   17   0.05   l      blank (not shown on video)               
      24   0.05   l      blank (not shown on video)               
LHL   d   17   0.05   l      blank (not shown on video)               
      36   0.05   w      blank (not shown on video)               
LHH   d   25   0.05   w      blank (not shown on video)               
      11   0.05   l      blank (not shown on video)           
HLH   d   21   0.05   w      blank (not shown on video)               
      13   8.5   l   1,2,3,4,7,8,10,14,16,20,23,26,29,30,31,32,34                 
HLL   d   3   8.5   w   1,2,3,4,7,8,10,14,16,20,23,26,29,30,31,32,34                 
LL   d   10   8.5   w                     blank (not shown on video)
      21   8.5   l   1,2,4,6,7,8,14,16,19,20,23,26,29,30,31,32,34                 
LHL   d   3   8.5   l                          blank (not shown on video)
LH   almost same   33   8.5   l   1,2,4,6,7,8,14,16,19,20,23,26,29,30,31,32,34                 
LHH   d   34   0.05   w                     
HH   d   25   8.5   l   1,2,4,6,7,8,14,16,19,20,23,26 29,30,31,32,35                 
HH   s   26   8.5   w   1,2,4,6,7,8,12,14,16,19,20,23,29,30,31,32,35                 
      8   17   w   1,2,4,6,7,12,14,16,18,19,20,23,29,30,31,32,35                 
HLL   d   2   8.5   w                     
LL   d   13   8.5   l                     
      20   8.5   w                     
LHH   d   34   0.05   w                     
      18   0.05   w                     
HLL   d   18   0.05   w                     
      25   0.05   w                     
LHL   d   18   0.05   w                     
      35   0.05   l                     
LHL   s   12   8.5   w   1,4,5,6,7,9,12,14,16,19,23,27,28,29,30,31,32

Note sure if cycles really helps here... it doesn't seem like VdW either... so not sure what the Non-Random element is?

[rrbb]

I don't really understand what rrbb is saying in that quote, but I guess I can test it to see if the same/different percentage remains the same over 1000 > 10,000 cycles?
...

Hi falkor2K15,

It was a question. Nothing more nothing less. When you know what you are looking for, finding it will be  a little bit easier.

Before you test thousands of spins and a lot of possible ideas i advice you to read the great discussion between General and Bayes on the other thread of Priyanka. It just might spark an idea of what you are looking for. Combined with the ideas presented by Priyanka which you nicely compiled it might give some guidance in your tests.


Grts rrbb

[falkor2k15]

Ati - You are right and perfect. Now the follow up question that one should ask is we can clearly see there are imperfections here. Is there a potential for us to modify the bet sizes across these positions instead of 1 unit bet uniform to create an edge? I will let you ponder on that.


Now enough of Parrandos and Vdw. Lets look at the third concept which is essentially making the sessions short enough to capture the variations. How on the earth do we do that?

As usual let us take a simple example. Going back to the dozens.

If you see the attached picture, let say you are tracking for 1 repeat of a dozen to happen. Quite often you will find that you will have to track all 3 dozens before a repeat can happen.

Now look at the same thing for 2 repeats of dozen to happen. You will find that you are starting to track lesser number of unique dozen for the second repeat can happen. The bigger the number of repeats you are tracking you will find that the number of unique dozens that you will track on an average will reduce. Translate this to a betting position that offers more options like double street, street or numbers. What do you see? Does this ring any bells?

This is just one way of making your sessions short enough to capture variations. However, I hope this gives a fantastic view of how you can make your playing sessions shorter and take advantage of variance.

This looks like the Holy Grail! We know that the Numbers have to repeat by spin 25; yet we know that we can get 12 unique streets without any of them having repeated once. However, if we are playing for 2 or more repeats of the Streets we may have to track less than 12. I am going to test my Mist Trap system today based on tracking for multiple repeats to see if the BR is less abused or not by the progressions.

[falkor2k15]

Tracking 12 streets only required about 9-10 max when waiting for 2 repeats, but tracking Double Streets x3 looks even better; however, I think Double Streets could still max out, so it's looking like x4 is required to never reach the limit of having to track all 6.

[falkor2k15]

To be ultra safe it looks like 5 repeats are needed to be tracked on the Double Streets! Now I understand what Priyanka meant by "Short Sessions". The amount of tracking spins is increased, but the amount of actual spins where bets are placed are reduced significantly. This looks very much like the Holy Grail before we even look at modifying it for more Non-Random and increasing odds/variance.

[atlantis]

This looks very much like the Holy Grail before we even look at modifying it for more Non-Random and increasing odds/variance.

Bridgekeeper: Stop. What... is your name?

King Falkor: It is 'Falkor', King of the Britons.

Bridgekeeper: What... is your quest?

King Falkor: To seek the Holy Grail.

Bridgekeeper: What... is the air-speed velocity of an unladen swallow?

King Arthur: What do you mean? An African or European swallow?

Bridgekeeper: Huh? I... I don't know that...!!!!

[Bridgekeeper is thrown over the bridge]

Bridgekeeper: Auuuuuuuugh!

Sir Bedevere: How do know so much about swallows?

King Falkor: Well, you have to know these things when you're a king, you know.


link:s://:.youtube.com/watch?v=_7iXw9zZrLo

A.

[falkor2k15]

Actually, the sessions seem to be getting longer when tracking 5 repeats of a line - 4 seems the shortest but can still max out. It may or may not be the Holy Grail, but I don't fancy figuring out mad progressions again. Therefore, I think I am going to code the Quads system next as quite a lot of Priyanka's play has been figured out in that, and she said it gains 9% edge!

[falkor2k15]

So far so good... I managed to get the "same" percentage as Priyanka for Quads! 

[falkor2k15]

The rest of the stats are also matching... but I am still not sure why cycles defined by a "different" quad to previous are never of length 1?



Priyanka's spreadsheet has 1 error on cycle length 4 (different).