Random Thoughts

[falkor2k15]

Bare in mind: this is about the first winning repeat, as for CL3 we cannot say which dozen will repeat. Some combinations of repeats can reduce the amount of times all uniques show - and could possibly contribute to first "winning" repeat potential or not.

[falkor2k15]

I forgot to mention that we are always following single appearers.

[falkor2k15]

So here's our benchmark... this was the worst set in 1 million spins...


(1 dozen + 2 dozen bets) x 9

We know that with every 2 dozen bets we need to triple up to recover losses... 7 is already past my budget - so 9 is out of the question not to mention all the single dozens as well.

But if we were playing for a repeat on the Defining Element:
2
1
1

...then the set would have been over after 3 cycles instead of 9. So can we improve on the above by moving to DE repeats?

[falkor2k15]

Here we have negative edge... this was the worse set for DE repeats! 



Before we had 17 losses in a row; this time we got 18 losses in a row. But before we had 8 sets of uniques without a winning repeat; now we have only 4 sets of uniques without a winning repeat.

Before we had 9 x 2 dozen bets vs. 9 x 1 dozen bets; this time we used 8 x 2 dozen bets vs. 11 x 1 dozen bets.

So I don't think there's any improvement yet; the first 2 repeat types tested singular seem almost comparable.

[falkor2k15]

What if we started each set with a single dozen following a fresh retracking, as the above started with a double dozen? We might then be able to cut down those double dozens from 8 to 6.

[falkor2k15]

So even with re-tracking we still need 8 double dozens unfortunately when it comes to the worst set...

[buffalowizard]

Don't mean to pi$$ on your parade, but after 77 pages, are you any closer to having a system that is easy to explain?

[Kattila]

Falkor,little off topic but...
if you see this scenario/order what would you bet for the next few spins, but
bet only one group and change the group to bet next according with
the distance you attack ( 11 , 22, 33 is dist 1 /    121,212,323..etc..
is dist 2  /  2332, 1221, 1231,3213..etc.. is dist 3...and so on... with
the distances between the same group):


Scenario
dozen(or any 12 numbers group)

1
2
3
1  dist 3
2  dist 3
3  dist 3
1  dist 3
2  dist 3
3  dist 3  can start to bet here or still wait...
3  dist 1/ dist 4
2  dist 3
1  dist 5,   now bet for dist ?




Also if you choose to attack 2 dozens , which two
distances you would attack ...

cheers

[falkor2k15]

Kattila, thanks for your reply. I've not tested distances/gaps yet - only dabbled with streaks - but one day I will experiment with what you are suggesting.

Back to sub-project 58... First repeat CL also seem comparable: 7 double dozens vs. 14 single dozens.

[falkor2k15]

Notice: CL repeats above had positive edge, even though it was small edge and its worst session was comparable to the others (all negative edge based). Singular Order repeats is also comparable to the others - 3 x double dozens vs 21 x single dozens - but closer to our enemy, Break Even, compared to the rest:

[falkor2k15]

17 losses with RO, but 8 double dozens. Seems like positive edge ala Cycle Length repeats - Pri said we don't get variance when playing for repeats - but need to confirm via 2nd dataset.

[falkor2k15]

So that's a minimum of 10 cycles to get a repeat! Going by, say, dozen repeats, we can calculate the cost to recover our losses:

DOZEN REPEATS
Dozens per bet	Units	Win	Lose
			0
1	1	2	-1
2	2	1	-5
1	3	1	-8
2	9	1	-26
1	14	2	-40
2	41	1	-122
1	62	2	-184
2	185	1	-554
1	278	2	-832
2	833	1	-2498
1	1250	2	-3748
2	3749	1	-11246
1	5624	2	-16870
2	16871	1	-50612
1	25307	2	-75919
2	75920	1	-227759
1	113880	1	-341639
2	341640	1	-1024919

So to play Priyanka's Dozen Cycles we would need an astonishing BR of 1,024,919 units - not to mention a big favour from the House to increase their table limits to 341,640 x 2 = 683,180 units for the final 2 dozen bet!?

But guess what? Let's say you find yourself in the following scenario:
CL1 = 0, CL2 = 0, CL3 = 1
O1 = 0, O2 = 1, O3 = 0
Defining Element = 1,2 or 3 (doesn't matter which)

One of them (CL, Order or DE) MUST repeat on the very next Cycle! In fact, most times the repeat will be on the Defining Element, followed by Order 2. Least likely to repeat out of those 3 would be CL3 - but one of them constants, nevertheless, MUST repeat!

The maximum for any repeat to occur is 4 cycles (outer CL3) - but we expect a repeat to happen mostly on the 2nd cycle, i.e. the first cycle we bet on - influenced mainly by the defining triple combi carried over from the previous set/outer cycle:

CL100 o100 d100	>>>	CL110 o110 d101	>>>	CL120 o120 d111
CL010 o010 d010	>>>	CL020 o110 d020
CL010 o100 d010	>>>	CL020 o110 d011
CL010 o010 d001	>>>	CL110 o110 d002
CL100 o100 d001	>>>	CL110 o200 d002
CL010 o100 d001	>>>	CL020 o110 d011
CL010 o010 d010	>>>	CL110 o110 d020
CL100 o100 d010	>>>	CL200 o200 d020
CL100 o100 d010	>>>	CL110 o200 d020
CL010 o100 d010	>>>	CL110 o200 d020
CL100 o100 d010	>>>	CL200 o200 d020
CL100 o100 d010	>>>	CL200 o200 d020
CL100 o100 d010	>>>	CL110 o200 d020
CL010 o100 d010	>>>	CL020 o110 d110
CL010 o010 d100	>>>	CL020 o020 d110
CL010 o010 d010	>>>	CL020 o020 d110
CL010 o010 d100	>>>	CL110 o110 d200
CL100 o100 d100	>>>	CL200 o200 d200
CL100 o100 d100	>>>	CL110 o110 d110	>>>	CL210 o210 d120
CL100 o100 d010	>>>	CL200 o200 d020
CL100 o100 d010	>>>	CL200 o200 d020
CL100 o100 d010	>>>	CL101 o101 d011	>>>	CL111 o111 d111	>>>	CL121 o121 d112

The defining combi has more chance of being defined the "same" as previous cycle - but contrary to singular DE repeats and anticipating DE to be the same over the course of any 3 "inner" cycle lengths (we cannot say which length the DE repeat will likely fall on) we now expect the defining element (representing the triple combi) to be no more than "outer" CL1 only.

[3Nine]

Falkor, I admire your efforts but you may want to start fresh from the beginning. 

Good luck.

[BellagioOwner]

3Nine what is this chart about?

[falkor2k15]

Falkor, I admire your efforts but you may want to start fresh from the beginning. 

Good luck.

But what more could we possibly want than immediate advantage of "defined by same" and a guaranteed repeat on the very next cycle...?  This is so MR-like; no?

If anything, this is a demonstration of Pigeon Hole Principle par excellence. Instead of waiting for 37 unique numbers to show and then not knowing which one will repeat, we know that a repeat will come by around 24 uniques max; therefore, the event comes quicker than expected - just not quick enough to keep below the table limits. However, by monitoring several simultaneous streams we can arrive at the first repeat quicker than ever.

You admire my efforts yet you undermine them at the same time with rhetorical statements like the above; if I've gone astray then why not be helpful and put me back on the right course? Of all the many hints coming from 3Nine, ati, RMore, Scarface (and others) there's never been a single eureka moment.
link:s://:.youtube.com/watch?v=Gpmi7dBet0c

All this progress is entirely thanks to my own exhaustive testing based on nothing more than a seed planted by Priyanka through his initial disclosure of the Cycles framework together with it's collection of constants. I would also like to thank my friend from NY for inspiring motivation, ideas and regular discussion amidst all the smoke and mirrors.

Cycles is the main concept that Priyanka shared - and it can work without VdW. Most of the other concepts were addressed on the previous page - mostly a package of mini-concepts, such as entry point, but all with one aim in mind: finding impact. Tracking multiple repeats (= less dozens)... but that strategy is secondary to winning the first repeat, at least. That just leaves stitching bets - you know how I feel about that in terms of it's ambiguity - and finally: deficit recovery.

Deficit Recovery describes that in 10 dozen cycles we expect around 5 CL2s, 3 CL1s and 2 CL3s. If one has fallen behind then we expect it to recover - particular for CL2 (king of dozen cycle lengths). Well, my previous reply above describing (immediate) triple combi repeats just happens to be the perfect example of deficit recovery - using PHP!

CL100 o100 d001	>>>	CL101 o200 d002
CL001 o100 d001	>>>	CL101 o200 d002

Above we start with CL1 = 1 (first cycle of row 1) vs. CL3 = 1 (first cycle of row 2). Both recover as CL101 (= CL1 and CL3 both being equal) through an additional push towards being defined the same. So rather than trying to play for CL1 or CL3 to catch up, we simply play for repeats. So not only does this application of PHP take advantage of defined by same - not to mention speedy first repeats - but with it's many forces at work it also takes sound care of deficit recovery.