Basics - that no one wants to hear

[falkor2k15]

So looking at my 2 different test results, it seems that past spins cannot tell us whether something is more likely to appear on the next spin, but they can tell us whether something is likely to be delayed?

[TurboGenius]

Below is my result using present and future spins. (testing only)
My goal (I expected) was around $10,000.00 in 1,000 spins.
It was rough but made it.
In the chart I show what numbers I was playing and where they appeared
on the deviation chart.
Obviously to win you have to end up playing number that hit above average -
in this case I did - Granted I missed the 22,23, and 24 (etc) but got the top 3 and others
that were all above average - thus giving me the edge over the casino.
(Nothing is perfect when you have to predict or guess future events).

[Tacwell]

Below is my result using present and future spins. (testing only)
My goal (I expected) was around $10,000.00 in 1,000 spins.
It was rough but made it.
In the chart I show what numbers I was playing and where they appeared
on the deviation chart.
Obviously to win you have to end up playing number that hit above average -
in this case I did - Granted I missed the 22,23, and 24 (etc) but got the top 3 and others
that were all above average - thus giving me the edge over the casino.
(Nothing is perfect when you have to predict or guess future events).

Hi TurboGenius

How did you decide which numbers were likely to hit above the average? Obviously the mean and standard deviation were calculated after your test, otherwise you'd be using past data in your selections, so what made you decide on those specific numbers? Or am I completely missing something?

[nottophammer]

Not worried about the past spins only interested in the 37 due.
So 26 comes, by 10th spin #30, 10 of the 37 due have hit, so bet the 27 due win,so 16,9,18,29,12 all win +55. Leave.

[Tacwell]

10 of the 37 due have hit, so bet the 27 due win

Ok, to me that seems like basing your decision on previous spins. I was hoping for an answer based on some markov chain probability calculation or something. 

[nottophammer]

its like turbo says  using present and future spins.

[Tacwell]

its like turbo says  using present and future spins.

For that to be true, the bet selection you explained has to be incorrect. If you're only looking at present and future spins, all numbers are unhit except the current number.

[Tacwell]

Anyway, if we're only looking at present and future spins, we can only know the current number, say the ball is sitting on 12. We only have two options, bet for 12 or against 12 (yes that includes EC and dozens/columns/streets). The wheel is telling us it's perfectly capable of hitting 12, beyond that is anyone's guess.

[falkor2k15]

Edit
Deleted Falkor. An attack on Turbo just to stir shit up. Ive banned you for a week

Turner

[TurboGenius]

Someone was attacking me ? Grins. I can handle it.

For that to be true, the bet selection you explained has to be incorrect. If you're only looking at present and future spins, all numbers are unhit except the current number.

"all numbers are unhit except the current number."
That's true.
It's also true that over the course of the future spins - numbers will show above average, others will show below average. If you pick randomly, then you end up with a bet selection of random numbers on that scale and eventually the house edge wins - because a number showing "at average" won't give you profit.
So the number that is showing when I sit down is going to be played. It doesn't mean that it's going to keep showing (if it doesn't, then I remove it from the list). I also add numbers as they
appear and remove others - when a number appears well above expected (and they do) then I profit nicely.
Now, someone who sits down and looks at the past spins won't be able to get any value from them. When (for example) #3 showed the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th time - I won on it each time.
I can point to the past spins to show what happened - but that won't help the new player
because #3 might not show up again for 200 spins. (and I won't be betting it either).
Like I said before - to someone who walks up part way through a session, it appears that I'm
using past spins to decide where to bet - but I'm not. I'm simply adjusting my bet selection based on what's happening right now - and what I expect to happen (if I'm right - and the test results show that it can be done quite accurately)

[MrJ]

I think hot numbers (repeaters) are the KEY, I really do, however........every damn "what if" situation ends up happening (or can happen). The hot number(s) stops but silly me, I have no idea it stopped until most of my built up BR has been depleted. Point being, show me some method RULES for hot numbers and I'll post the OPPOSITE of what ends up happening.

This is the best.....you stopped betting on those couple hot numbers and guess what?

YEP YEP YEP YEP they start hitting again. Its a fu***n slap in the face.

Ken

[Tacwell]

It's also true that over the course of the future spins - numbers will show above average, others will show below average. If you pick randomly, then you end up with a bet selection of random numbers on that scale and eventually the house edge wins - because a number showing "at average" won't give you profit.
So the number that is showing when I sit down is going to be played. It doesn't mean that it's going to keep showing (if it doesn't, then I remove it from the list). I also add numbers as they
appear and remove others - when a number appears well above expected (and they do) then I profit nicely.
Now, someone who sits down and looks at the past spins won't be able to get any value from them. When (for example) #3 showed the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th time - I won on it each time.
I can point to the past spins to show what happened - but that won't help the new player
because #3 might not show up again for 200 spins. (and I won't be betting it either).
Like I said before - to someone who walks up part way through a session, it appears that I'm
using past spins to decide where to bet - but I'm not. I'm simply adjusting my bet selection based on what's happening right now - and what I expect to happen (if I'm right - and the test results show that it can be done quite accurately)

Thanks for explaining, I get what you're doing now. Another question, are you calculating the mean and standard deviation as the session progresses, and maintaining your list according to that, or simply saying we expect a number once every 37 or 38 spins, so any appearing more than that stay on the list and any others are removed?

[MrJ]

Can I add something to this? I sometimes do similar methods to this.

This stuff regarding a session being 37/38 spins......(lol) I just round it up to an even 40. It makes LITTLE difference and its much easier to keep track of things.

Ken

[Tamino]

Mr J

Win or lose once you leave a table NEVER look back.


ND

[Tacwell]

Can I add something to this? I sometimes do similar methods to this.

This stuff regarding a session being 37/38 spins......(lol) I just round it up to an even 40. It makes LITTLE difference and its much easier to keep track of things.

Ken

I suppose it depends on the method you're using, if you need to need to remove "cold" numbers from the your bet list after 37 spins for example, betting one uit a number, you'd end up betting 3 extra units for each number if waiting for 40. But for calculations where it makes no practical difference then yes I agree.