KTF

[RouletteGhost]

Yes, average

Largest drawdown on winning games?

[Celticknits]

Look spin 16  +36  spin 34 +39  stopped with 36 if you KTF at spin 48 +238 but you do not want to be there take the earlier win

Code Select Expand

spin # non hit prog units win (+/-)
0 37
1 34 36
2 4 35 j247 6.2.16
3 0 34
4 7 33
5 34 r
6 25 32
7 23 31
8 22 30
9 6 29 stake
10 9 28 non-hit return
11 27 27 1 28 36 8
12 3 26 1 27 36 17
13 11 25 1 26 36 27
14 11 r 1 25 0 2
15 13 24 2 50 72 24
16 17 23 1 24 36 36
17 3 r 1 23 0 13
18 34 r 2 46 0 -33
19 4 r 3 69 0 -102
20 16 22 4 92 144 -50
21 17 r 3 66 0 -116
22 21 21 4 88 144 -60
23 18 20 3 63 108 -15
24 7 r 2 40 0 -55
25 3 r 3 60 0 -115
26 32 19 4 80 144 -51
27 5 18 3 57 108 0
28 34 r 2 36 0 -36
29 17 r 3 54 0 -90
30 19 17 4 72 144 -18
31 3 r 3 51 0 -69
32 10 16 4 68 144 7
33 17 r 3 48 0 -41
34 30 15 4 64 144 39
35 23 r 3 45 0 -6
36 21 r 4 60 0 -66
37 18 r 5 75 0 -141
38 4 r 6 90 0 -231
39 3 r 7 105 0 -336
40 3 r 8 120 0 -456
41 8 14 9 135 324 -267
42 14 13 8 112 288 -91
43 16 r 7 91 0 -182
44 33 12 8 104 288 2
45 17 r 7 84 0 -82
46 16 r 8 96 0 -178
47 26 11 9 108 324 38
48 24 10 8 88 288 238
49 0 r 7 70 0 168


-Notto

Agreed spin 16 is close enough to the $40-$50 winstop for me and I would have been out of there.
Using these same numbers on an American wheel I would have been out one spin sooner because the winstop on an American wheeel is $30-40.
Had I been stupid enough, or more likely, greedy enough to continue past spin 17 I would have continued until either a break even or first + on the BR. This would have been a break even at spin 27 and about an hour of playing time.
I wonder how many would have had the discipline to quit at the break even point.

-Celtic

[Priyanka]

Look spin 16  +36  spin 34 +39  stopped with 36 if you KTF at spin 48 +238 but you do not want to be there take the earlier win

Notto this is what people make accusations on curve fitting. All the profit loss results will be valid if there is a fixed rule for exiting the game. I get it that anyone can and are free to keep their own exit rule, but the question is what is the exit rule for your results? As an example, It could be let's say when one of the following three conditions are met.
1. Profit of 30-50 units or loss of 500-700 units
2. When the 40 spins are complete
3. When 15 non hits appear. 

Of course this is just an example but what is your exit rule for the game?

[RouletteGhost]

Of course this is just an example but what is your exit rule for the game?

30 to 50 win goal. 400 stoploss

[nottophammer]

Heres todays #'s jackpot247. Priyanka think this meets your 3 conditions, but then i need to give some riddles

Code Select Expand

spin # non hit prog units win (+/-)
0 37
1 10 36
2 8 35
3 35 34
4 5 33
5 2 32
6 6 31
7 10 r
8 2 r
9 33 30 stake
10 32 29 non-hit return (+/-)
11 1 28 1 29 36 7
12 8 r 1 28 0 -21
13 8 r 2 56 0 -77
14 6 r 3 84 0 -161
15 23 27 4 112 144 -129
16 5 r 3 81 0 -210
17 3 26 4 108 144 -174
18 3 r 3 78 0 -252
19 17 25 4 104 144 -212
20 22 24 3 75 108 -179
21 30 23 2 48 72 -155
22 27 22 1 23 36 -142
23 20 21 1 22 36 -128
24 31 20 1 21 36 -113
25 33 r 1 20 0 -133
26 36 19 2 40 72 -101
27 16 18 1 19 36 -84
28 5 r 1 18 0 -102
29 26 17 2 36 72 -66
30 10 r 1 17 0 -83
31 21 16 2 34 72 -45
32 7 15 1 16 36 -25
33 6 r 1 15 0 -40
34 6 r 2 30 0 -70
35 29 14 3 45 108 -7
36 3 r 2 28 0 -35
37 18 13 3 42 108 31
38 28 12 2 26 72 77
39 16
40 28
41 0
42 8
43 23
44 12
45 9
46 24
47 11
48 18
49 4
50 26
51 27
52 21
53 23
54 13
55 19
56 33
57 30
58 4
59 22
60 10

61 0
62 13
63 7
64 1
65 8
66 27
67 34
68 17
69 14
70 10
71 23
72 4
73 22
74 9
75 4
76 1
77 10
78 19
79 26
80 20
81 14
82 9
9


[RouletteGhost]

think this meets your 3 conditions, but then i need to give some riddles

Omg. You kill me. Lol

[Priyanka]

Heres todays #'s jackpot247. Priyanka think this meets your 3 conditions.

My conditions are only examples. As there is no answer am assuming what RG posted is your exit condition.

[RouletteGhost]

My conditions are only examples. As there is no answer am assuming what RG posted is your exit condition.

As i understand it
, its what i posted

[RouletteGhost]

Based on what i have seen. Notto celtic correct me if im wrong

2 banks of 400 (800 total) should be enough

By the time you bust 1 bank the 3rd bank should already be created

If the 1 in 100 holds true boy oh boy we have a good time

[nottophammer]

Yes RG
take todays game, those 3 repeats made it a nigtmare of a game, but +1/-1 handled it well, draw down got close.
The average of 5 non-hit in each block of 10 spins, well it got that average, just didn't need the cluster of repeats, that happens,but not every game.
In the average doc  theres been 103 games, 10th non-hit has 81 games its avg to hit is1.2345, now, its max is 4. Could max 4 be constant or maybe in another 81 games the max might become 5, how long is a bit of string. That piece of info has no baring in KTF thou, its just betting non-hit.
Where that info is of use is like the game i explained to Psimoes, if your going to play like that then you need all the info you can get, the biggest piece comes from understanding, here we go,GUT. Not crossings,but the trot/count.
Todays game played with a modified marty would win every non-hit, biggest repeat is going for the 34th non-hit, 12 spins, now you could handle 12 spins, but i've seen it take 38 spins on rng and thats max in 7 years of games played and recorded, this is the info you need if your going to play singles.


What would be good RG is if you could get some games from your local casino, 60 spins per game

[Celticknits]

Based on what i have seen. Notto celtic correct me if im wrong

2 banks of 400 (800 total) should be enough

By the time you bust 1 bank the 3rd bank should already be created

If the 1 in 100 holds true boy oh boy we have a good time

-RG

This is your choice but not what I said.
In Nottos post #926 he posted the session with the largest drawdown of the 99 out of 100 winners.

I said that if I was to play KTF I would change the rules to reflect an $800 BR to play.
I got the $800 from the largest drawdown on the sheet that he posted.

I would leave all of the other rules as they are.

Not sure why you split the $800 into 2x$400 sections but oh well.
If you did split the BR you are still playing with a $400 BR per session.
If you do that you will not win 99 out of 100 games.
That was the purpose of me asking what game had the largest drawdown, aside from the January 22 fiasco.

I do not think it would be fair to expect Notto to go over all the games and tell us how many $400 BR games would have lost.
Start at page 1 and you could do this yourself.

So to summarize you would have won 99 out of the 100 games with an $800 BR and using all of the other rules as they have been stated many times.

-Celtic

[Celticknits]

..........................................
What would be good RG is if you could get some games from your local casino, 60 spins per game

And post the numbers.

-Celtic

[RouletteGhost]

-RG

This is your choice but not what I said.
In Nottos post #926 he posted the session with the largest drawdown of the 99 out of 100 winners.

I said that if I was to play KTF I would change the rules to reflect an $800 BR to play.
I got the $800 from the largest drawdown on the sheet that he posted.

I would leave all of the other rules as they are.

Not sure why you split the $800 into 2x$400 sections but oh well.
If you did split the BR you are still playing with a $400 BR per session.
If you do that you will not win 99 out of 100 games.
That was the purpose of me asking what game had the largest drawdown, aside from the January 22 fiasco.

I do not think it would be fair to expect Notto to go over all the games and tell us how many $400 BR games would have lost.
Start at page 1 and you could do this yourself.

So to summarize you would have won 99 out of the 100 games with an $800 BR and using all of the other rules as they have been stated many times.

-Celtic

Ok. So my question has been answered

Of the winning games largest drawdown was 800

Therefore with a 400 stoploss there was more then 1 bust out of 100

Therefore we should increase the stoploss to 800

Wanna play gotta pay

[nottophammer]

Tried to read the GUT thread once, too many pages full of garbage from other posters, the signal to noise ratio in that thread is rather poor. But I´ve seen your records from KTF and let me tell you that´s impressive. If KTF is based on GUT I´ll try again to read it.
Although I don´t play anymore I always come back to the forum for useful info.
Good luck

Iwas just like you, i see all those pages and thought fcuk that. But it popped up again, so i thought lets have a look, well best read ever.

[3Nine]

Thanks, RG - you just saved me a lot of reading and time. 

I'm not comfortable with risking 800 to win 40.