The biggest issue with methods, please join in

[wiggy]

Please have a read of this everyone.

The Law of Disproportionate Occurrence.

Though the dice, the roulette wheel, and the cards ‘’have no memory’’, what they do have is a conscience, and this conscience is called a PROBABILITY MODEL. As most of you probably already know, there exists what are known as probability models for each of the games, and the various bets which make up the games. Where infinity (the long-run) is concerned, these probability models provide that there will be ‘’x’’ number of ‘’apples’’ to ‘’x’’ number of ‘’oranges’’. In general, 50 ‘’heads’’ for every 50 ‘’tails’’. With each game and each probability model, the most common occurrence of any particular event is the first one, or one. The next most common is the second, or two, the third or three, and so on.

However a glaring misconception occurs when considering the short-run in the same manner! Reality unquestionably evidences the existence of a second ‘’bi-polar’’ law, or what is probably more accurately identified as a ‘’counter-polar’’ law that governs the short-run. This phenomenon is witnessed by what we commonly describe as ‘’things don’t happen like they’re supposed to’’!
For if the law governing the long-run were truly duplicated in the short-run, casino table games would have been extinct long ago. The challenge would be simple because of obviously already knowing for example, that with every 100 spins of the roulette wheel, that there must be exactly 50 red numbers to the 50 black numbers within those specific 100 spins. Well it doesn’t quite work that way now does it?

Not only do we know that ‘’it doesn’t work that way’’, we can also accurately state that the law of the long-run isn’t dictated to prevail in the short-run, and it is in fact extremely rare that it does duplicate itself perfectly in the short-run. Hence, through actual observation of the short-run, the fact is established that the law governing the long-run IS NOT duplicated in the short-run. Therefore, the challenge of the games present this unique paradox: the short-run is inequitable to the long-run!
So when it comes to gaming relationships and probabilities, though the whole is still equal to the sum of its parts, the parts themselves are not simply abbreviated versions of that whole.

Though the Law of Disproportionate Occurrence doesn’t need to be academically justified or philosophically rationalized, it commands acknowledgement. There is nothing we can do to fight it or eliminate it. And why should we anyway? If we learn to exploit it instead of challenge it, the results will be greatly to our advantage! Furthermore, this is the same exact law that the casinos now worship to enjoy a ‘’take’’ of 15 to 20 percent plus, instead of just the miniscule 2+/- percent that the ‘’commission’’ would offer by itself. Therefore, once you acknowledge that the casino is nothing more than the host for the games, then and only then, will you be able to accept that the Law of Disproportionate Occurrence is absolutely the ‘’phenomenon’’ which will aid you in taking the casino’s money, while they are left void of a defense!

My fingers are sore typing that lot out.    Either try to understand it and learn from it or not. The choice is yours.

cheers

[NextYear]

All this come out of your head?

[Kimo Li]

There is nothing awesome with any numbers, characteristics, or betting method. Numbers are numbers, subjected to math’s rules. The math guys can chime in and say, “That’s what I am talking about.”

On the other hand, it is in the “belief” that my 12 numbers is better than someone else’s 12 numbers. Fortunately, both arguments are wrong.

Experience is the defining factor.

Kimo Li

[Tacwell]

Forget  the HE.  Concentrate  on winnings.


Leave  the HE to the mathboyzz.  That`s their  worry. With all    their preoccupation  with math  they forget  one thing : HOW to win.

Gawd man, you place your bet, the odds are fixed, that's your chance of winning, end of story. There's no "how to win". What's so difficult to understand? You don't need to be a maths wiz to get it. You have 30 units, you put 30 units on red, the best you can do is win other 30 units, if you rather put 1 unit on any single number for 30 spins, you could win a lot more than 30 units, but in the long run you'll still end up losing the HE. That's all you need to know.

[MrJ]

@Kimo Li >> So can "experience" lower the HE for you? The word BETTER = a lower HE (imo).

Ken

[Kimo Li]

Experience does not lower the HE. Experience allows the player make the right decisions.

Kimo Li

[MrJ]

Experience does not lower the HE. Experience allows the player make the right decisions.

Kimo Li

I'm not trying to argue even though I come off that way, I do apologize. If the HE *NEVER* changes, that being said, I would think there are no right OR wrong decisions? The HE would STAY THE SAME(?)

Ken

[nottophammer]

There is nothing awesome with any numbers, characteristics, or betting method. Numbers are numbers, subjected to math’s rules. The math guys can chime in and say, “That’s what I am talking about.”

On the other hand, it is in the “belief” that my 12 numbers is better than someone else’s 12 numbers. Fortunately, both arguments are wrong.

Experience is the defining factor.

Kimo Li

Mr Li
The more i read about math in roulette,the more i keep away from the math. Roulette is a game of chance, so i here people say.
Well as some know i'm building a data base on the airball spins from Jackpot247.
I have another data base built on RNG spins. Even thou one is much larger, the figures are so similar.

Now the part where you say  my 12 numbers is better than someone else’s 12 numbers .

I've seen a random 12 numbers take 34 spins, a dozen be it 1,2 or 3 take atleast 34 spins.
Now the but
When i play the non-hit of the mat/wheel betting those 12 remaining non-hit the longest i've seen it take in j247 is 10 spins, the larger data base 17 spins, no where near as the random 12, so why is this,what is the answer by math

[MrJ]

I'm a method player and here I am insulting myself (lol), who does that?

Ken

[Turner]

Gawd man, you place your bet, the odds are fixed, that's your chance of winning, end of story. There's no "how to win". What's so difficult to understand? You don't need to be a maths wiz to get it. You have 30 units, you put 30 units on red, the best you can do is win other 30 units, if you rather put 1 unit on any single number for 30 spins, you could win a lot more than 30 units, but in the long run you'll still end up losing the HE. That's all you need to know.

Another feckin Maths boy....Jesus wept 

[NextYear]

@ Ken

HE exists as of rays of sun exists and will always be there...

You are endangered by them in relation with how much you expose yourself to them and which protection you are using, if any!

[Tacwell]

Experience does not lower the HE. Experience allows the player make the right decisions.

Kimo Li

So what are the right decisions that this experience teaches you? When I turned 21 my first try at the roulette table was playing a martingale on alternating red/black. I played for hours until I lost my br. My last visit to the casino (now over 40), I played EC again, for the fist time in ages, oscar's grind against itself. I left well up, but not because of experience, just luck, plain and simple.

[Tacwell]

Another feckin Maths boy....Jesus wept 

Simple logic. Negative expected value. It's a fact, it can't change, no matter how much that guy wept.

[nottophammer]

I've seen a random 12 numbers take 34 spins, a dozen be it 1,2 or 3 take atleast 34 spins.
Now the but
When i play the non-hit of the mat/wheel betting those 12 remaining non-hit the longest i've seen it take in j247 is 10 spins, the larger data base 17 spins, no where near as the random 12, so why is this,what is the answer by math

is this above written in, invisable ink

[Turner]

I've seen a random 12 numbers take 34 spins, a dozen be it 1,2 or 3 take atleast 34 spins.
Now the but
When i play the non-hit of the mat/wheel betting those 12 remaining non-hit the longest i've seen it take in j247 is 10 spins, the larger data base 17 spins, no where near as the random 12, so why is this,what is the answer by math

is this above written in, invisable ink

What was the payout for all 3 bet selections?