Randomer Thoughts

[bbb128]

the latest excel he posted earlier.
is he betting on 1 dozen only?
sometimes increase from 1 unit to 2 unit to 3 unit to 4 unit.

[falkor2k15]

i just dont get.. some-where it semes that you bet on ap for Y/N, somewhere for s/d. somewhere for a repeat of cycle lenght.
but i cant find other concepts  or relations.

Hi Praline, what does Y/N refer to? Yes/No? For what exactly?

Do you think dispersion killing is used besides AP to do with virtual wins and losses as seen in the quads video?

[praline]

Yes - cycle ended
No -  different dozen
I don't see "virtual wins or loses".  Often Priyanka is waiting for cycle to end, and then start betting again.

Do you think dispersion killing is used besides AP to do with virtual wins and losses as seen in the quads video?

Can you refrase the question? I don't understand what do you mean by "dispersion killing used besides AP".

We already killing dispersion by using EVENTS and not spins. For all dozens probability to hit is always the same, but for three events ( cycle lengths) - it's not.

[praline]

what do you think about this?

can it be used with vdw to creat parallel games?

forgot 2 first bets so its +9

[praline]

did another testing

297 spins
22 sessions
+24units   Flat bet 

[NextYear]

Thanks Praline!

This tracker if from Priyanka, or?
Can you explain what is a trigger for bet?

[praline]

yes it is.

track number of repeat    for cycle lengts. when cycle lenght reach 4 repeats i bet for that lenght.

where there are two cycle lenghts to bet, we bet them in ascending order. 23 first 2 then 3, 34 first three than 4, 24 first 2 than 4.

i was thinking to track lenght 3 with lenght 4 like one lenght. we would have a = cl2    and    b=cl3 + cl4.    for A we bet definig dozen, for B we bet two opposite dozens.    will test this and post results soon

[praline]

i was thinking to track lenght 3 with lenght 4 like one lenght. we would have a = cl2    and    b=cl3 + cl4.    for A we bet definig dozen, for B we bet two opposite dozens.    will test this and post results soon

113 spins
10 sessions
flat bet result      "+2"

[falkor2k15]

Yes - cycle ended
No -  different dozen
I don't see "virtual wins or loses".  Often Priyanka is waiting for cycle to end, and then start betting again.Can you refrase the question? I don't understand what do you mean by "dispersion killing used besides AP".

We already killing dispersion by using EVENTS and not spins. For all dozens probability to hit is always the same, but for three events ( cycle lengths) - it's not.

Thanks for your reply! We get ratios/probabilities for different EVENTS in cycles, BUT they sometimes under perform. In other words, there is a distribution associated with betting cycles together with "waves" of both winning and losing. It's already been shown that Priyanka used virtual wins/losses in her quads video - did you interpret it differently to dispersion killing? Also, why miss out cycle length 1?

Code Select Expand

Number Quad Cycle quad W/L Bet Why?
29 4
3 1
9 1 1 Bet 2 - 3 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
26 3 W Bet 1 - 3 We won our first bet. Now we bet the last two quads
27 3 3 W Bet 1 - 2 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
4 1 W Bet 1 - 3 We won our first bet. Now we bet the last two quads
27 3 3 W Bet 1 - 2 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
32 4 W Bet 3 - 4 We won our first bet. Now we bet the last two quads
18 2 L No bet We lost. Wait for a virtual win.
1 1 No bet
7 1 1 Bet 2 - 3 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
28 4 W No bet No bet. We wait for the virual win.
27 3 VL No bet Virtual loss.
24 3 3 Bet 1 - 2 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
5 1 W No bet No bet. We wait for the virual win.
7 1 1 VW Bet 2 - 3 - 4 Virtual Win. End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
28 4 W Bet 1 - 4 We had our virtual win. Now we bet again the last two quads.
2 1 1 W Bet 2 - 3 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
15 2 W Bet 1 - 2 We won our first bet. Now we bet the last two quads
31 4 L No bet We lost. Wait for a virtual win.
30 4 4 No bet ??? No ideal why we dont make a bet here…
14 2 VW No bet Virtual win.
29 4 4 VW Bet 1 - 2 - 3 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
31 4 4 L No bet Here we lost our bet. Now we wait for a virtual win.
36 4 4 No bet
35 4 4 No bet
5 1 No bet
11 2 No bet
20 3 No bet
23 3 3 No bet
23 3 3 No bet
1 1 No bet
9 1 1 No bet No bet. We wait for the virual win.
27 3 Bet 1 - 3 Virtual win. Bet all the other quads. This bet is still active.
19 3 3 W Bet 1 - 2 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
7 1 W Bet 1 - 3 We won our first bet. Now we bet the last two quads
15 2 L No bet Lost
10 2 2 Bet 1 - 3 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
16 2 2 L No bet Lost
12 2 2 No bet
10 2 2 No bet
4 1 No bet
26 3 No bet
16 2 2 No bet
15 2 2 No bet
22 3 No bet
31 4 No bet
25 3 3 No bet
9 1 Bet 2 - 4 Virtual win. Bet all the other quads. This bet is still active.
11 2 W Bet 1 - 2 - 3 Here we see a new trend. Our previous cycle was lenght of 3. Now we bet it will also be 3. Bet the 3 previous quads.
23 3 3 W Bet 1 - 2 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
25 3 3 L No bet
14 2 Bet 1 - 4 Here we switch bet. We now bet the two missing quads because we bet for a cycle of 3.
2 1 W Bet 1 - 2 - 3 Our previous cycle was lenght of 3. Now we bet it will also be 3. Bet the 3 previous quads.
5 1 1 W Bet 2 - 3 - 4 ??? Why bet? We did not have a virtual win here.
29 4 W Bet 2 - 3 We now bet the two missing quads because we bet for a cycle of 3.
20 3 W Bet 1 - 3 - 4 Our previous cycle was lenght of 3. Now we bet it will also be 3. Bet the 3 previous quads.
2 1 1 W Bet 2 - 3 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
24 3 W Bet 2 - 3 We now bet the two missing quads because we bet for a cycle of 3.
16 2 W Bet 1 - 2 - 3 Our previous cycle was lenght of 3. Now we bet it will also be 3. Bet the 3 previous quads.
12 2 2 W END

[praline]

i need to do some testing befor post a reply, Falkor

[falkor2k15]

i need to do some testing befor post a reply, Falkor

Praline, your spreadsheet doesn't seem to shed further any light compared to my previous analysis, other than:
*You seem to think that Priyanka has both CL3/4 (AKA: CL2/3) in mind at the beginning of each cycle, but something is steering the bet selection to one or the other?
*You corrected a bug in the previous analysis, near the end when Priyanka switches to playing for the longer distance cycle, resulting in a different mystery compared to before: why miss out untold CL1s only to play after a CL1 near the end.

bet for
NOTES (PRALINE)	(AKA CL2 or CL3)	DESCRIPTION (FALKOR)	COMMENTS (FALKOR)
2 3 4	cl3 cl4	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
1 3	cl3	Now we bet the last two quads
1 2 4	cl3 cl4	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
1 3	cl3	Now we bet the last two quads
1 2 4	cl3 cl4	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
3 4	cl3	Now we bet the last two quads	Lost on the 2nd bet (Priyanka first loses playing for CL2 on the 2nd bet. No further bets were placed till the next cycle, so we can only assume the cycle was considered lost as an event)
2 3 4	cl3 cl4	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads	(Come next cycle the 1st bet was still carried out and is not the same bet that lost previously)
vl 14		VIRTUAL: Now we bet the last two quads (LOSE)	Lost again on the 2nd bet (virtually). Priyanka re-attempted the following, albeit virtual, as this is what lost two cycles ago and hasn't yet been compensated for
1 2 4	cl3 cl4	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads	(Come next cycle the 1st bet was still carried out as before)
vw  13		VIRTUAL: Now we bet the last two quads (WIN)	Won on the 2nd bet (virtually) so back to playing normal. This was re-attempted as it lost 2 cycles ago.
2 3 4	cl3 cl4	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads	(as before the first bet continues to be played)
1 4	cl3	Now we bet the last two quads	(The one virtual win of the previous seemed sufficient to surf back on a winning streak, i.e. she never had to wait for 2 virtual wins to match the 2 former virtual losses - one was enough)
2 3 4	cl3 cl4	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
1 2	cl3	Now we bet the last two quads	Lost on the 2nd bet (Lost again on this same bet so waits for VW)
vw 123	cl3 cl4	VIRTUAL: End of cycle: Bet all the other quads (WIN)	Why play virtually?? (7 previous wins in a row or other reason?) Surprisingly, she suddenly halts with the opening cycle bet that she would otherwise always play. Perhaps this is because she already had 7 wins in a row and was expecting a loss? Otherwise it could be something to do with VdW?
vw 24	cl3	VIRTUAL: Now we bet the last two quads (WIN)	Won on the 2nd bet (virtually) so 2nd bet is playable once again; CL2 closes promptly with the virtual win she was waiting for
1 2 3	cl3cl4	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads	Why resume playing?? (the winning/losing streak hasn't changed); back to betting the opening bet of the next cycle, so it's even less clear now why she missed this out before
		The next series of bets are not played - neither real nor virtual it seems, including: CL1 x 1
		CL1 x2
		CL1 x3
		CL4 x1
		After a CL3 is tracked, however, Priyanka resumes play waiting for a virtual win on the end of cycle opening bet that lost 10 spins prior:
vw 234	cl3 cl4	VIRTUAL: End of cycle: Bet all the other quads (WIN)	Lost 1st bet 10 spins ago - now back to playing normal after VW
1 3	cl3	Now we bet the last two quads	(Priyanka proceeds with the 2nd bet of the cycle even though the opening bet was virtual. Would this still apply if the bets were stitched instead of flat? So this dispersion algorithm is broken down over individual spins that make up the complete cycle event.)
1 2 4	cl3 cl4	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads	(Back to playing normal)
1 3	cl3	Now we bet the last two quads	Lost on the 2nd bet
		s
1 3 4	cl3 cl4	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads	Lost on the 1st bet (by rights we should now be waiting for a virtual win on the opening "other quads" bet as well as the "last 2 quads" bets, respectively)
		Next a series of post-end of cycle bets are missed again, including: CL1 x1
		CL1 x 2	(According to my stats for CL1, this should give a 3% increase for CL2 when played in an secondary outer cycles framework)
		CL1 x 3	(It was hinted that these CL1 bets have to be waited out, but for what reason? Part of Dispersion killing or VdW?)
		CL3 x 1	Why ignore the CL3 this time and the Cl4 last time?
		CL1 x 4
		(She continues betting again - only after a 2nd CL3 is tracked - makes no sense!?)
vw 124	cl3 cl4	VIRTUAL: End of cycle: Bet all the other quads (WIN)
2 4	cl4	Bet opposite of last 2 quads	Now, for some reason, she doesn't wait for a vitual win on the "last 2 quads" bet, but bets opposite; I suppose it could be considered equivalent to waiting for a virtual loss, but supposedly its based on matching the previous cycle (CL3)
1 2 3	cl4	Bet last 3 quads
1 2 4	cl3 cl4	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads	(Back to the opening cycle bet)
vw 124	cl3 cl4	VIRTUAL: End of cycle: Bet all the other quads (WIN)	Why play (virtually) after CL1?
1 4	cl4	Bet opposite of last 2 quads
1 2 3	cl4	Bet last 3 quads
2 3 4	cl3 cl4	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
2 3	cl4	Bet opposite of last 2 quads
1 3 4	cl4	Bet last 3 quads
2 3 4	cl3 cl4	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
2 3	cl4	Bet opposite of last 2 quads
1 2 3	cl4	Bet last 3 quads

[falkor2k15]

In other words, the dominant dozen in all cycle lengths of 3 was also the dominant in one of the previous 2 cycles 74% of the time

Is that only for Dozens - Cycle Length 3? I tested this concept in general for Quads (notwithstanding any particular CL) and my findings were that only the most recent defining element had any impact on the next cycle (not 2 defining elements back or even 3 back):

"111 > defining

18431 (55%)
5131
5026
4930

33518

1 > defining

60479 (55%)
16436
16179
16184

109278

No extra bias from multiple defining elements over previous cycles.


21 > defining

8963 (55%)
2491
2463
2456

16373

Only the most recent defining element counts! So that means the previous cycle is the most important in "unlocking magic" with the next cycle (earlier ones have no impact in this test).

However, we know that from increasing the span to 2 repeats, each defining element starts to affect things..."

[falkor2k15]

In other words, the dominant dozen in all cycle lengths of 3 was also the dominant in one of the previous 2 cycles 74% of the time

When I test the dominant quad in all cycle lengths of 4, the previous 2 cycles had no affect not to mention we are trying to predict 2 things:
*Current cycle wil be CL4 (or max CL for the position being played)
*Same as previous one of the 2 defining elements

Defined by 1: 334   23.89127325 %
Defined by 2: 360   25.75107296 %
Defined by 3: 363   25.96566524 %
Defined by 4: 341   24.39198856 %
   
Total: 1398   


If we just try to predict :
*Same as previous defining element

then we get 55% - no more/no less regardless of defining element going back before the previous one.

[falkor2k15]

i just dont get.. some-where it semes that you bet on ap for Y/N, somewhere for s/d. somewhere for a repeat of cycle lenght.
but i cant find other concepts  or relations.

Is "repeat of a cycle length" the same as playing for s/d on cycle lengths, whereas normal s/d that you are referring to is with regards to the defining element, right? And "Yes/No" is during the middle of a cycle when it's in limbo on whether it will close, or remain open, on the next individual spin?

[falkor2k15]

I took the wiesbaden spin data from 1st January to 15th January and applied some of the concepts that has been discussed here in this thread and outside. I have removed zero from the equation. The results are attached. I have carefully removed one of the columns in the excel that aids in removing apples or pears ( ).  Those interested can study the excel.

Hi Priyanka, can you please tell us what do these "-- -- --" rows mean that occur every so often? Is it some kind of mini-game division within your sets? And is it based on the law of the third?

Would it help us to study your last 2 videos first (the Journey parts 1 and 2?) before we study this spreadsheet?