Bet a sector that hits "above expectation"

[RouletteGhost]

Is above expectation a figment of the imagination?

What is above expectation if the wheel is random?

Could a continuously "hot" sector just be a coincidence?

But we perceive it as a potential bias? Because the human mind does this

[RouletteGhost]

One half of the wheel hit 30 times, the other half hit 5 times....in a total of 35 spins

does this mean there is a bias?

Too small a sample? yup

10,000 spins.....6500 hit on one side, 3500 hit the other side

cant this be a major coincidence or random being random and not necessarily a bias?

even IF there is a small bias on one side of the wheel you can bet that sector and still lose for the night because the other side started to hit when you began playing....

so for that evening you have lost....what does this mean?

[RouletteGhost]

perhaps every single one of us is at the mercy of the same game, and all wins are due to luck/variance

[Turner]

Is above expectation a figment of the imagination?

Only if Maths is, and it isnt

What is above expectation if the wheel is random?

hmm...maths again Im afraid
Normal distribution shows how numbers will hit above average vs. expected
expected is once every 37 spins, on average
Other ways are to analyse spins to find the fitness of a wheel based on biases created by imperfections etc.

Could a continuously "hot" sector just be a coincidence?

No. Coincidences ...or what you would think were coincidences are all covered within the std.dev of normal distribution.

But we perceive it as a potential bias? Because the human mind does this

You have to disbelieve maths to see things this way

....................................................

What you have to do is trust the maths. Trust Maths in general.

It is fact

See...if you dont trust maths its because you dont understand it.

Its human nature to not accept something that seems impossible. This usually ends up in some kind of conspiracy theory.

Elvis is adored...he cant be dead, therefore he is seen working in a petrol station

Computers were shit in 1969. How could man land on the moon, therefore its a film set

[RouletteGhost]

Computers were shit in 1969. How could man land on the moon, therefore its a film set

thanks for the response

i understand the math behind behind it in general

but the wheel is random, it does not have to follow distribution? and a bias would totally screw up the math

and your above quote may awaken falkor

[Turner]

but the wheel is random, it does nor have to follow distribution? and a bias would totally screw up the math

It follows distribution because its random.

If its not random, then you can look for a bias in the wheel


Of course, The casino just dont pay enough for a win, to win overall in the long run.

Thats Maths and thats the truth

However, I think many know this deep down and dont need it pointing out around this time every night as if they are stupid.

[RouletteGhost]

However, I think many know this deep down and dont need it pointing out around this time every night as if they are stupid.

Indeed

Still love playing around with the game though

Love that bit haha

[Steve]

Is above expectation a figment of the imagination?

No, that's what a biased wheel is. They do still exist - more than you'd think. Every now and then one of my players tells me about one they've found, with credible data. But still there are better ways to win roulette.

What is above expectation if the wheel is random?

Then that would be variance. Anything can happen in the short term.

Could a continuously "hot" sector just be a coincidence?

Yes of course. But in the longer term, it becomes less likely to be coincidence.

10,000 spins.....6500 hit on one side, 3500 hit the other side

That would almost certainly be bias.

even IF there is a small bias on one side of the wheel you can bet that sector and still lose for the night because the other side started to hit when you began playing.... so for that evening you have lost....what does this mean?

It means anything can happen in the short term. Even casinos have nights where they've made a loss.

perhaps every single one of us is at the mercy of the same game, and all wins are due to luck/variance

A better way of saying it is: you can never predict anything with 100% accuracy, but it isnt needed to have an edge. Remember the casino usually only has a slight advantage over you. Even blackjack players get excited about a 1 or 2% edge.

Is it really hard to get a slight advantage to overcome the small house edge? No not really. On some wheels its very easy. On other wheels, probably not possible in real casino conditions.

[Steve]

RG see link:://:.roulettephysics.com/roulette-wheel-bias/

[RouletteGhost]

No, that's what a biased wheel is. They do still exist - more than you'd think. Every now and then one of my players tells me about one they've found, with credible data. But still there are better ways to win roulette.

Then that would be variance. Anything can happen in the short term.

Yes of course. But in the longer term, it becomes less likely to be coincidence.

That would almost certainly be bias.

It means anything can happen in the short term. Even casinos have nights where they've made a loss.

A better way of saying it is: you can never predict anything with 100% accuracy, but it isnt needed to have an edge. Remember the casino usually only has a slight advantage over you. Even blackjack players get excited about a 1 or 2% edge.

Is it really hard to get a slight advantage to overcome the small house edge? No not really. On some wheels its very easy. On other wheels, probably not possible in real casino conditions.

Thanks for the reply

What amazes me about Blackjack especially is with basic strategy the edge is only .5% so essentially its 50/50 and still a pain in the ass to win!

[dimsun]

Is above expectation a figment of the imagination?

What is above expectation if the wheel is random?

Could a continuously "hot" sector just be a coincidence?

But we perceive it as a potential bias? Because the human mind does this

The Grandpaaa Way base on hot sector.  It work well.  Most not understand how play.  Take lot plactice.  Not mechanical.

[Steve]

A

What amazes me about Blackjack especially is with basic strategy the edge is only .5% so essentially its 50/50 and still a pain in the ass to win!

Almost everything in gambling is long term. If you think in terms of hour or even a day, it's short term. Long term is weeks and months. No matter what method or system you use, you need a way to verify your edge as you go. Otherwise you'd need to test thousands of spins and your only way of knowing if you might have had an edge is by checking your balance. But even that alone isnt a reliable indicator. For example with bias, monitoring visually (or with sound) for signs of bias. Like the sound of the ball hitting a pocket may be different to other pockets.

[RouletteGhost]

The Grandpaaa Way base on hot sector.  It work well.  Most not understand how play.  Take lot plactice.  Not mechanical.

Vls forum?

[DoctorSudoku]

Thanks for the reply

What amazes me about Blackjack especially is with basic strategy the edge is only .5% so essentially its 50/50 and still a pain in the ass to win!

With card counting , the house edge is even lower.

But, nowadays, in most places you have at least 6 decks and reshuffling is done with only 60% shoe penetration -- that significantly diminishes the effectiveness of any card counting that you do. 

[dimsun]

Vls forum?

Yes