30 out of 100

[Blue_Angel]

Perhaps a better question would be: "HOW I could win more times than what I'm losing?" rather than how much I should bet in order to win.

By increasing and/or decreasing bets,you are NOT changing the odds.
By saying that I expect to win 30 bets out of 100, this does NOT determine in which order I'm going to have my wins and loses.

Those 2 major facts are the main reasons why most of the progressions fail in the long term, just because they aim to win in a very certain way, a specific turn, sequence.
Besides, any kind of progression is secondary element, the fundamental always must be HOW I could win more times than my losing ones, in other words a method of bet selection.

An example about the turn of expected wins:
Let's say I have the very modest expectation to win 30 bets out of 100 in total.
Would this be the same for our progression to experience 70 loses during the first 70 spins and 30 wins on the remaining in comparison with 10 wins during the first 30 spins, then 10 more till the 60th spin and another 10 winning bets from 91st till 100th spin??

It's a question everyone has to answer,who's considering applying any kind of progression!

[Blue_Angel]

I have read many posts including this forum,many of you focus on progressions or in other words how much to bet, a betting sequence which usually is "negative".
This fact alone means 2 things in my point of view:

1) No matter how much you are willing to risk, it's NOT going to happen because if you can't win with flat bets, most probably you won't win with any kind of progression, you only prolonging the unavoidable...

2) Increasing bets after losing results it's a very BAD timing...and after all gambling is all about timing!
Think about it for a moment, all events are certain to occur after some time, but what separates winners from losers is the timing and NOT how much money you are willing to risk.

Too much emphasis for a secondary gambling element, the money management and the progression of the bets, without ever considering two crucial elements; When and Where

By betting 1 Euro or 1 million of Euros in a single bet, actually you are NOT changing the odds, money alone dictates only how much you could win or lose any given moment, what makes you winner or loser is NOT being determined by the money factor, but by Where and When.

So in my point of view is futile to discuss about progressions, there are plenty of systems and/or methods out there which their only concern is about how much someone has to bet and with a specific order, usually after losing, thus negative and I believe there is very good reason to call this kind of progressions this way (negative).

Another negative element of the "negative" progressions is that are NOT realistic...
Let me explain you what I mean, let's say you start betting and you win a few bets and eventually you find yourself in what we call a string of unfortunate results or a losing streak if you prefer.
Then you raise your bets gradually, no matter how much aggressively or conservatively, trying to overcome the losing streak but you don't appreciate your past wins, no matter how many wins before you find yourself in the uncomfortable position of a losing streak.

A realistic approach would be to predetermine a very realistic MINIMUM expectation...
For example, I expect to win 30 EC bets out of 100, if the results would be better than this then even better!
By saying 30 out of 100 results, does NOT indicates with which turn,sequence this 30 wins are going to occur within 100 outcomes.

This is the point where almost all of the negative progressions fail, because you are disregarding the previous wins instead of considering the totality of the results as a whole...

What if there was a progression which could be applied on any bet section of the table and/or wheel layout by predetermine the minimum expectation according the probability and deviation of the particular section?
Would that be interesting?

I would like to present you an example;
Let's say I'm fond of the so called "outside bets" and I choose Red because it's my favorite color.
My minimum expectation is to win 30 bets out of 100, would that be realistic, what do you think?

The results could be the following:
(B=Black, R=Red, Z=Zero)

B , B , R , B , R , B , R , R , R , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , Z , R , R , B , R , R , R , B , R , R , R , R , B , B , R , R , R , R , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , R , R , B , R , R , R , B , R , R , B , R , R , R , R , B , R  <----- 30 wins achieved, end of session

In the above hypothetical example, the "event horizon" of 100 results in total has not been reached since we concluded our goal in 77 outcomes.

The betting sequence:
(beginning from the top left and towards the right and down to the next line)
(L=Lose, W=Win)

L -10 , L -20, W -10, L -20, W -10, L -20, W -10, W 0, W +10, L 0, L -10, L -20, L -30, L -40, L -50, L -60, L -70, L -80, L -90, L -100, L -110, L -120, L -130, L -140, W -130, W -120, L -130, W -120, W -110, W -100, L -110, W -100, W -90, W -80, W -70, L -80, L -90, W -80, W -70, W -60, W -50, L -60, L -70, L -80, L -90, L -100, L -110, L -120, L -135, L -150, L -165, L -180, L -200, L -220, L -240, L -265, L -290, L -315, L -345, L -375, L -410, W -375, W -340, L -375, W -335, W -295, W -255, L -295, W -250, W -205, L -250, W -195, W -140, W -85, W -30, L -85, W +5

As you might have noticed,the lowest bankroll reached -410 followed by 35 bet, this indicates that roughly 500 units bankroll would be sufficient for such session.
Also worthwhile to notice that the highest bet was 90 just before the last win/result.

This was an example of 77 outcomes from which 30 have came our way and 47 loses.
It's not the easiest session you may encounter, isn't it?
Yet again, the progression formula managed to gain the upper hand even after much more negative results and two looooong losing streaks of 15 and 20.

However, there is an "Achilles heel" to this progression and this is the last bets...the more you approach towards the minimum expectation goal, the more vulnerable you become because the bets have to raise in order to achieve an overall profit within the minimum expectation (winning margin)

The progression formula is:
negative balance (if any) divided by minimum expectation (winning margin) divided by odds payout, equals with the next bet on the progression

In the above example, the formula would be:
balance / 30 / 1  (1 to 1 odds payout)
You could implement the same progression formula for every bet selection.

There is an extra, optional condition you may consider to apply in order to avoid dramatically increasing the bets if you ever encounter many loses near the end of the minimum expectation goal, this is to stop betting after one loss and wait for just 1 virtual win, whenever happens, then you would continue where you left off immediately after the virtual win.
You might think that this way is missing every first win after each losing streak, but what you are saving is much more than just missing one win because there are MANY losing streaks of 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10...etc

As my closing point, I'd like to remind you the way I open this thread;
No matter how much, nor the progression you are using, couldn't make you winner if you don't have a method to determine WHERE and WHEN to bet!

[NextYear]

Thanks Blue, lot of thinking on this heat!

[Blood Angel]

Interesting post, thank you.

[Blue_Angel]

L -10 , L -20, W -10, L -20, W -10, L -20, W -10, W 0, W +10, L 0, L -10, L -20, L -30, L -40, L -50, L -60, L -70, L -80, L -90, L -100, L -110, L -120, L -130, L -140, W -130, W -120, L -130, W -120, W -110, W -100, L -110, W -100, W -90, W -80, W -70, L -80, L -90, W -80, W -70, W -60, W -50, L -60, L -70, L -80, L -90, L -100, L -110, L -120, L -135, L -150, L -165, L -180, L -200, L -220, L -240, L -265, L -290, L -315, L -345, L -375, L -410, W -375, W -340, L -375, W -335, W -295, W -255, L -295, W -250, W -205, L -250, W -195, W -140, W -85, W -30, L -85, W +5

As you might have noticed,the lowest bankroll reached -410 followed by 35 bet, this indicates that roughly 500 units bankroll would be sufficient for such session.
Also worthwhile to notice that the highest bet was 90 just before the last win/result.

Just to clarify that -410 is not units because in my example I've used 1 unit = 10 Euros, this means -41 units deepest DD and not 90 units max bet but 9 units.