Andruchi System - The Maths

[Bayes]

A member sent me a pm asking about the Andruchi system (google it). It's been exposed as a scam numerous times but I don't think the dodgy calculations on the website have been exposed for what they are (the member was asking specifically about those).

Basically the system involves waiting for 20 unique numbers to appear, the procedure is to then bet for the next 3 spins (or until a hit) on the remaining 17 numbers using a progression.

Andruchi uses some weird calculation to find the probability of getting at least one hit in the 3 spins, which, according to him, is 91.49%. This gives the probability of a progression bust of 100% - 91.49% = 8.51%. The average win is 8.33 units and a progression loss of will cost you 68 units, and on this basis the total expectation is positive (see calculation below in the image).



The correct calculation to find the probability of at least one hit in the 3 spins is as follows (I'll start from first principles so it's easy to follow):

You are betting on 17 numbers, and if you win it will either be on the first, second, or third spin.

The chance of a win is 17/37 and the chance of a loss is 1 - 17/37 = 20/37

Win on spin 1: The probability is just 17/37
Win on spin 2: You lose on the first spin and win on the second, so the probability is 20/37 * 17/37
Win on spin 3: You lose on the first and second spins and win on the third, so the probability is 20/37 * 20/37 * 17/37

Since if you win it must be on either spin 1 or spin 2 or spin 3, and since these results are mutually exclusive, we just add them to get the probability of at least one hit in the 3 spins.

17/37 + 20/37*17/37 + 20/37*20/37*17/37 = 0.8421 or 84.21% (rather less than Andruchi's result).

Now this gives the probability of a complete loss as 100% - 84.21% = 15.79% (rather more than Andruchi's result).

Now if we repeat his calculation using these probabilities, the expectation is:

0.8421*8.33 - 0.1579*68 = -3.723

Not positive after all. 

[Rolletti]

Thanks for the explanation. Very interesting.

[Azim]

To add to the scam, which you have mentioned.

In layman terms, he was convincing that 24/25 numbers will always hit in a cycle of 37 spins. If that were correct. We would have all been rich by now.

[nottophammer]

Hi Azim, Bayes and no doubt Turner 
Now i'm not into the maths like you 3.
But if you was to have record every game when 21st non-hit has hit, like this perhaps. I have recorded 1000 games and for the betting of these 17 #'s, it shows
1st spin 460, so would this be 46% of the 1000 games
2nd spin 276
3rd spin 180, thats the 3 spins bet. Would this not account for  91.6% of the 1000 games

Meaning you would have lost only 8.4% of the 1000 games.

[RouletteGhost]

Hi Azim, Bayes and no doubt Turner 
Now i'm not into the maths like you 3.

You find a way to make me laugh out loud

Notto

Im not maths guy either

But this is elemantary math

And i believes yous is rights

[iggiv]

i made a few bucks on Andruchi system a few years ago before I realized...You will laugh but but his "system" is last 20 or so cold numbers. That's it, just cold numbers. That's a funny scam. He tells you some mumbo jumbo but really all u get is just  cold numbers.
He takes out last 18 (or so, i don't remember exactly how many) hot numbers and the rest is his "system".

And also he is affiliate to casinos. He tells you exact casinos you have to join with the link he provides you. His stuff is supposed to lose and work for casinos which will send him percentage of their wins (and your losses).

[Azim]

Hi Azim, Bayes and no doubt Turner 
Now i'm not into the maths like you 3.
But if you was to have record every game when 21st non-hit has hit, like this perhaps. I have recorded 1000 games and for the betting of these 17 #'s, it shows
1st spin 460, so would this be 46% of the 1000 games
2nd spin 276
3rd spin 180, thats the 3 spins bet. Would this not account for  91.6% of the 1000 games

Meaning you would have lost only 8.4% of the 1000 games.

I was under the same theory as you are now notto when I started looking at roulette.  In theory, it should be the case. But, that will not happen.
You have to first understand how did you get the 46%. The second is even if you get an identical trot there is no assurance that it will repeat the same pattern. Considering all results are independent. That's why Winkel has always said, you have to watch what's happening and remember your decision and outcome.

[Azim]

Notto i am sure you will like this.

This are numbers as of 37 spin.

[Azim]

Notto i am sure you will like this.

This are numbers as of 37 spin.

Same calculations as the 1st post. In a statistics point of view.

Out of 10,000,000 you get 24 numbers hit which is 20.43% of the time the rest 79.57% you lose.

[Rolletti]

nottophammer:
Are your figures actual records of your games? Interessting that they come very close to the andruchi calculation. Your games would have gained about  roughly 4000 units.

Azim:
Can you do the percent statistics again, but exclude all trots (37 spin sequences) that show 24 or more non-hit numbers in 37 spins? Thx.

[nottophammer]

Are your figures actual records of your games?

yes

[Azim]

Just add the raw numbers up and do the division by total you get...

The raw numbers shouldn't change unless i use a different set of numbers.

Andruch, on his selling speach has the right numbers.

It's just that Andruchi asking to play at only the casino's he wants is a scam. His theory is partly based on GUT.

He is also removing the number's as they hit, till you get 22 unique number's by spin 33 or 34 i forget.

here it is if you want to play with in and see it for yourself:  link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=401.0

From the number's i have produced  if you add the number's from 14 to 24  is what you get before spin 37 if you wait for 24 to hit...
Numbers 25 to 37 are after 37 spins have gone by.

He is using a rolling 34-35 spins to get the hit counts.

[nottophammer]

Now this is where i find my math skills let me down, okay i can count to 10, at a push 20 with my toes.
But seriously theres only 84 times it goes above 3 spins (17,17,34) so 84*68= 5712

Now we have 460*19=8740
                       276*2 =552
                       180*4 =720
total                           =10012- 5712= +4300 by my maths, am i wrong

[Azim]

Notto, here is a good example  read the thread.
This is were you heading...

Just be careful.

link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=7121.msg65672#msg65672

[nottophammer]

Notto, here is a good example  read the thread.
This is were you heading...

Thanks Azim, i do not actually use this method, i just have the games to supply when non-hit actually hit.