The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think

[psimoes]

Neglecting the Zero and the consequent unfair payouts, for the game to be completely fair the wheel should be spun by an independent entity. That´s right. Someone from the Government, from the authority that regulates the activity. Why must it be done by a casino employee? That´s like a football referee arbitrating the game and shooting for the goal at the same time, like a 12th player for the house team. Makes no sense to say the HE is only 2,7% when clearly it is not. Why don´t casinos let punters spin the wheel and throw the ball? Because we might cheat? Is that it? Why should we trust them then?

[The General]

The "win" is actually much higher than what people expect because players aren't content with winning just a little bit.  The odds of the random gambler winning a vast sum of money- an amount that would make them feel content- are much much higher than they are for a player attempting to only win a little bit.  Some won't stop gambling until they've made a 100k, or until they've lost their $200. The odds of them being that successful are astoundingly low.  Consequently a player will continue to gamble and recycle their small win until it becomes a loss.   

Over the years, many gambling authors have successfully made this point.  John Patrick is a good example. 

[dimsun]

The "win" is actually much higher than what people expect because players aren't content with winning just a little bit.  The odds of the random gambler winning a vast sum of money- an amount that would make them feel content- are much much higher than they are for a player attempting to only win a little bit.  Some won't stop gambling until they've made a 100k, or until they've lost their $200. The odds of them being that successful are astoundingly low.  Consequently a player will continue to gamble and recycle their small win until it becomes a loss.   

Over the years, many gambling authors have successfully made this point.  John Patrick is a good example.

Hehe, the germinal make good post.  need print and frame, rare thing valuable.

[iggiv]

Psimoes, do you really believe that if "someone from the Gov't" spins the wheel and throws the ball you will have more chances to win?

Maybe you are right. But only in a case when "someone from the gov't" will place the ball directly where you ask him to. Because he doesn't give a damn, he is a Gov't employee, right? Nobody is gonna fire him if he has some fun letting you win

But if he plays by the rules and does exactly what he is supposed to do to make the game random, you will have exactly the same chances to win, be he from Gov't, from the casino or from a circus. I will tell you even more. If he is just a guy passing by who has the ability to throw the ball correctly you will have exactly the same chances. Even if he is not a human at all. Say he is a baboon from jungle which does not even know what he is doing, but still throws the ball correctly.

[psimoes]

The "win" is actually much higher than what people expect because players aren't content with winning just a little bit.  The odds of the random gambler winning a vast sum of money- an amount that would make them feel content- are much much higher than they are for a player attempting to only win a little bit.  Some won't stop gambling until they've made a 100k, or until they've lost their $200. The odds of them being that successful are astoundingly low.  Consequently a player will continue to gamble and recycle their small win until it becomes a loss.   

Over the years, many gambling authors have successfully made this point.  John Patrick is a good example. 

I agree, General. Good post by focusing on the win.

[psimoes]

Psimoes, do you really believe that if "someone from the Gov't" spins the wheel and throws the ball you will have more chances to win?

Maybe you are right. But only in a case when "someone from the gov't" will place the ball directly where you ask him to. Because he doesn't give a damn, he is a Gov't employee, right? Nobody is gonna fire him if he has some fun letting you win

But if he plays by the rules and does exactly what he is supposed to do to make the game random, you will have exactly the same chances to win, be he from Gov't, from the casino or from a circus. I will tell you even more. If he is just a guy passing by who has the ability to throw the ball correctly you will have exactly the same chances. Even if he is not a human at all. Say he is a baboon from jungle which does not even know what he is doing, but still throws the ball correctly.

Roulette is a negative expectation game. I´m not saying we´d have more chances to win on a truly fair wheel, I´m saying there would be less chances for us to lose!

The point of the topic is not to start a petition. Whether it should be an incorruptible government agent or a monkey or a Jehovah witness, well that is not gonna happen. The point is all the probabilities, equations and statistics lack important data. 2,73% looks fine on paper but it´s not realistic when a SOB is constantly trying to manipulate the outcomes against you.

[RayManZ]

But is it posible for a well trained roulette dealer to NOT hit section on the wheel?

[Turner]

The HE is 2.7%. The casinos dont make a living on that and they dont make a living on dealers spinning cleverly either
They make their money on the hold which is around 20%+
This is gamblers recycling their winnings over and over

[Azim]

Looks like this video has flaws. The speed of the wheel is the same.  Keep an eye on the speed of the ball as well.

From my count the ball drops after about 19-20 rotations.

[psimoes]

Well one time I was betting double streets and losing due just to bad luck. The dealer had been playing along by throwing the ball and spinning the wheel fast. I take it no one there would guess where the ball would land, so it was random. OK. After my first win I was still down by a few units, so I didn´t tip. The gentleman gave a quick look as if saying "no tipping eh?"  and spun and threw really slow, although not so slow that it would be ilegal and I´d protest. Well the ball didn´t scatter at all and landed straight on the green pocket.
How about that? The little guy was sniggering. Needless to say I left the table. As I was grabbing my remaining chips I looked at him in the eye, calmly said "I know where you live" and walked away. I bet he farted.
Then I woke up. Heheh. The reality is I had been reading the forum and some sites on roulette and just said to myself "well, the house edge, you know? Comes with the gambling" and didn´t leave. Kept playing the "winning system" until I had no money left.
True story bro.

[psimoes]

The HE is 2.7%. The casinos dont make a living on that and they dont make a living on dealers spinning cleverly either
They make their money on the hold which is around 20%+
This is gamblers recycling their winnings over and over

OK, probably the title is misleading. Instead of HE read The Odds Against The Player. Is it possible to edit the title?

The point is not on how casinos make a living, it´s how gamblers might destroy theirs by not taking other factors into account.

[Turner]

title changed

[psimoes]

Glad this subject link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=18101.msg166713;topicseen#msg166713 didn´t develop. I´ll have to admit under this new regard it´s just nonsense. Why? By analysing that session at Wesbaden Spielbank, if the Tiers hit so many times after the Voisins it´s because the highest bets were on the Zero and the dealers successfully avoided that sector.

As the session goes on and punters change their targets accordingly, at the end of the day all the numbers add up evenly. The Law of Large Numbers takes care of that and it will look natural on paper, that the odds appear unchanged, but to the individual gambler it might not be so.

[psimoes]

title changed

Thanks 

[Steve]

But is it posible for a well trained roulette dealer to NOT hit section on the wheel?

See link:://:.roulettephysics.com/can-roulette-dealers-make-you-lose/ which explains everything in detail