Priyanka's Journey - simple or complex?

[falkor2k15]

Priyanka says everything is simple and doesn't have to be complex...

Falkor... But somewhere in the back of your mind, you need to keep this thought - Things are not complex as it looks like once you know the solution.

But is that really true? Today I am going to try to analyse 2 of Priyanka's videos titled "The Journey" (parts 1&2).

Here I think some new cycles terminology is first needed that has yet to be discussed on the forum:


We know that when our current cycle closes, i.e. a new repeat occurs, it has more chance of being defined the same as the previous defining element of the last cycle. And this is true for EC, Dozens and Quad cycles.

Prior to closure the "halves" start to drop in till the repeat happens. Now, anytime a new halve appears the probability that the repeat will be on the previous defining element or the halves is split equally between them. For example:

13...

The probability is now higher that the next repeat will be on 1 and 3 (equally) instead of 2.

132...

Here we cannot say whether the cycle will be defined by 1 (pre-defining) or 32 (halves) because the probability is now split between all three. Better to not bet on anything.

However, there's a rumour that the halves take precedence over the pre-defining element - perhaps only in Line Cycles where the defining element has more chance of being defined by different instead of same. But from my testing it's hardly different to dozens:

5...

Here we do not bet as we expect the cycle to close with something "different" to pre-defining 5 (or we could bet all other lines except 5) = 54% different. But with dozens we might have had a better opportunity here (63% same). Continuing with the lines example:

53...

Here the probability is split between 5 and 3 to define the next cycle even though 5 was "weak" by itself at the previous spin:

7%   Defined by 1
7%   Defined by 2
36%   Defined by 3
7%   Defined by 4
35%   Defined by 5
7%   Defined by 6

But still the rumour persists... that the halves take precedence over the previous-defining element or that the previous defining-halve bears some kind of significance for which I haven't been able to find any supporting evidence at all.

Despite this (or in spite of all this?) we haven't yet created any dependency, so the above is describing what happens in the most simple way - yet to track previous cycles and constants in their multiples, in the hope of creating dependency is surely anything but simple...? Siding with one constant over another during the event of a tie could only be described as complex?

With equally-likely events like Dozens we know that 1 in a row is always neck-and-neck with 2+ in a row:

Dozen 2 - 1 in a row = 24 occurrences during last X number of spins
Dozen 2 - 2+ in a row = 24 occurrences during last X number of spins

Priyanka could be tracking each dozen cluster and then trying to bet against one type of cluster based on the running totals/tallies, or, more likely, she is tracking other constants in relation to cycles besides the basic dozens stream.

Again, the simplest strategy would be to go with the previous defining element + halves as equal forces towards the next repeat, but Priyanka evidently doesn't play using those basic rules.

So let's now explore how Pri might have selected her dozens during her Journey...
link:s://:.youtube.com/watch?v=GwnvTTEC00o
link:s://:.youtube.com/watch?v=dNWygC4ApEY

[falkor2k15]

First, let's look at the overall structure/skeleton of Priyanka's strategy in those 2 videos using the "end of a cycle" as the benchmark/key-frame:

Number	Cycle	Comments		Number	Cycle	Comments
30	3			9	1
7	31			32	13
13	312			5	131
16	3122	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens		32	13
5	21			1	131
8	211	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens		32	13
33	13			16	132
29	133	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens		6	1321
11	31			36	13
20	312			34	133
16	3122	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens		25	33	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
5	21			17	32
31	213			3	321
15	2132	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens		3	3211
16	22			9	11	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
35	23			21	12
28	233	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens		20	122	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
21	32			25	23
6	321			34	233	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
29	3213	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens		12	31
7	31			24	312
17	312			25	3123	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
31	3123			16	32
1	31			25	323	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
27	313	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens		3	31
11	31			7	311	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
21	312			15	12
22	3122	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens		36	123
5	21			33	1233
13	212	FINISHED		26	33	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
				22	32
				9	321
				10	3211	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
				16	12
				8	121	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
				32	13
				25	133	FINISHED

At these key moments of the game it seems Pri cannot find any desirable dozens to select, so she always "bets the other Dozens" (against the pre-defining element) till her strategy advises on betting something more specific during the middle of the cycle. This would suggest that she is only trying to capitalize on Cycle Length 2 and CL3 and has no way of taking advantage at the start/end of a cycle.

So that is indeed a very simple way of playing - so far - at least... but now things are about to get more complex as we fill in the gaps to above strategy puzzle!

P.S. There was a couple of times where she didn't bet at the end of a cycle.

[falkor2k15]

Unfortunately, Pri's bet selection is more complicated than I thought it would be!  I sense there is some long-term tracking/tallying that isn't being reset between cycles nor does Pri seem to be looking back to the last couple of cycles to make each decision - unless in part. And besides these basic observations, I must concede, so I'll leave it to you guys instead to figure out what is going on and to find a simple solution to all this... 

16	3122	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
5	21	Bet Dozen 3
8	211	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
33	13	Bet Dozens 2,3
29	133	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
11	31	Bet Dozen 1
16	3122	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
5	21	Bet Dozen 1
16	3122	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
5	21	Bet Dozen 1
31	213	Bet Dozen 3
15	2132	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
16	22	End of Cycle: bet Dozen 2
15	2132	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
16	22	End of Cycle: bet Dozen 2
35	23	Bet Dozens 1,3
28	233	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
21	32	Bet Dozen 2
28	233	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
21	32	Bet Dozen 2
6	321	Bet Dozens 1,3
29	3213	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
7	31	Bet Dozen 3
29	3213	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
7	31	Bet Dozen 3
17	312	Bet Dozens 2,3
31	3123	End of Cycle: bet Dozen 3
1	31	Bet Dozen 3
27	313	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
11	31	Bet Dozen 3
27	313	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
11	31	Bet Dozen 3
21	312	Bet Dozens 1,2
22	3122	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
5	21	Bet Dozen 2
25	33	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
17	32	Bet Dozens 1,3
25	33	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
17	32	Bet Dozens 1,3
3	321	Bet Dozens 1,2
9	11	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
21	12	Bet Dozens 1,3
20	122	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
25	23	Bet Dozens 1,3
34	233	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
12	31	Bet Dozens 2,3
34	233	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
12	31	Bet Dozens 2,3
24	312	Bet Dozens 1,3
25	3123	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
16	32	Bet Dozens 1,3
25	323	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
3	31	Bet Dozens 1,2
7	311	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
15	12	Bet Dozen 3
7	311	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
15	12	Bet Dozen 3
36	123	Bet Dozens 2,3
26	33	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
22	32	Bet Dozens 1,3
26	33	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
22	32	Bet Dozens 1,3
9	321	Bet Dozens 2,3
10	3211	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
16	12	Bet Dozens 1,3
8	121	End of Cycle: bet the other Dozens
32	13	Bet Dozens 2,3

[falkor2k15]

Overview

[Herby]

Hi falkor,
maybe you like to post an Excel map with the data above. I would be able to import the data in to my programs.
TNX

[Herby]

Copy and paste worked well.
TNX

[puntoit]

    dozens of repetitions