@ turbo

[Steve]

On the note of ceh, i knew i would cop heat for banning him because he had such a large following. Of course people accused me of censoring the hg which was complete bullshit.

It just reached epic levels of bullshit. Its not my job to tell people what to think. But it's also my and the mods responsibility to use best judgement to know when to finally step in. When its so damn obvious, action is justified.

It's alsi easy for us all to forget we are all real people here. I actually don't enjoy having the power as admin from the point that some people think that i think im better than them. In all i think we have good balanced moderation here. Again turner said it best: pub rules.

[Bayes]

Steve, it's a bit of a grey area I suppose when it comes to moderation. When does baiting become "extreme"? You mention a "principle that can be tested". Well Turbo has definitely given us that. The principle is that hot numbers/ repeaters are a better bet than cold numbers. Even though he hasn't made a logical case for that being true (although he thinks he has), the problem is that the "principle" doesn't work in practice. I made this point in a recent post when I said that if the principle is true then there ought be many systems which work as long as they follow the "principle". But many systems have been tried using Turbo's principle and none of them work, so we're left with the conclusion that if Turbo is right, it must come down to the very specific system and rules he's using, which he won't post. So in effect, he is baiting after all.

I'm not necessarily saying that anyone who does this is a troll and on a deliberate power trip, but it doesn't really matter what their intentions are because the net result on the forum is the same.

[Steve]

The reason i mentioned ceh and remembering everyone is a real person is i came to know him  reasonably well but didn't know he was actually ceh too. I didn't know until later. And the guy seemed normal and sincere. I was later shocked that he was ceh.

When i asked him wtf was he thinking when stringing people along. He said he just liked to make people think. So from his perspective he was helping people. His motivation and intent was good. But he was deliberately misleading people, which was very wrong. Point is he isn't a bad guy, just caught in a very bad way of thinking.

Sure there are bad people with bad intent too. And they wouldn't last long here or on any reputable forum. examples are some of the dicks that went to gf to complain about wov then now to another bad forum like spreading cancer. Just negative people, uncaring of shit they create and how they affect each other.  At least it seems everyone here is essentially good-willed and not an outright c*nt to others while being proud of it.

[Steve]

id say turbo is a long way from baiting. baiting for ego is a very different frame of mind.

i think i know turbo well enough to say he has good intentions.

its also good that he put his balls on the line. but in this case it seems he made a mistake. if or when he sees this, the right thing would be to say this so people dont chase their tails.

ive made mistakes too, we all have. and i even made public apologies. its a bit embarassing, but shit happens. at least it shows you arent afraid to admit mistakes. most people tend to hold on as if it makes them look incompetent. i think most people would respect the honesty.

[Turner]

Heavy Moderation doesnt work and no moderation doesnt work even more

I think we have a good balance here. its because there is Moderation and people choose their words correctly to avoid it.

Pub rules, as I said to Steve some time ago.

Pubs have dickheads and bullshitters and people bragging, but it goes unchallenged....or a quiet word from the landlord

Pubs have good folk too, but if a fight breaks out, they are barred.

You cant have it run like Admin does in GF and you cant have it run like Esoito did in betselection. It doesnt work.

[falkor2k15]

What or how would you bet on a roulette table if you DIDN'T want to win.
If your goal was to avoid a bet that you placed winning - where and why would you bet there ?
I think this might help some people along the way,
Don't get confused with "bet red and black and zero" (that's a whole different topic).
Lets say for the sake of example - you have to place a chip and you want to make sure that it doesn't win.....

link:s://:.GF/threads/a-question-to-make-you-think.7203/

"Lets say we wait until there is only 1 street left to show and then bet on it for 1 spin - knowing it could be 40+ spins before that last street shows. It's a great way to lose that bet."
--TurboGenius, 03-Jul-2017

Turbo's claims about cold numbers will, indirectly, either support or weaken his hypothesis about hot numbers. Results of this COLDEST STREET TEST to be posted soon - using real casino data over 1 million spins - excluding zeroes.

[TurboGenius]

No you didn't prove anything of the sort. No casino pays you every day just for turning up. That's where the player edge starts.
If you played 37 spins per day, and started with $1,000 and were paid $1,000 just for logging in, your edge for the day is about +30%.

Now imagine logging in day after day to maximize your bonus, and manage to win one of the top prizes just once. From that point, you have a massive injection of free funds in your account. From that point, as long as you keep playing, you'll continue to have a much higher edge than anyone and your profit is virtually guaranteed to keep increasing.

Again you dont appear to understand the math. But to simplify it further, you say its realistic. Which real casino gives you free money every day just for visiting?Even Fossel was high in the leaderboard. Again anyone would be if they played enough. Just most people dont have spare time to play with fun credits.

I don't know why I have to keep saying the same thing.
Any bonus points for logging in - even points purchased for that matter - DO NOT count as a profit of any kind.
Your bankroll balance doesn't put you on the leaderboard - only profits do.
If I log in and they gave me a MILLION bonus points, I wouldn't place on the leaderboard at all.
All of my leaderboard positions have been from profit only while playing.
So yes - it's realistic.
I've explained this over and over, it doesn't sink in.
As you can see from my posted results - I didn't need or use any bonus or log in points after the first week, it was just a "starting bankroll" the same as what I would have brought to a casino myself. and logging in every day and getting bonus points.... none of them go towards the leaderboard results. (now I'm repeating myself again).
This is available info on the site - or give it a try yourself. You can get bonus points all day and never be on the leaderboard... this is fact.
Now again to the claim that it's fixed ?  I dis-proved this by (saying first that I was going to do it) and then betting to lose. Sure enough, my bankroll is $2.00 now. "It's all rigged to win" wasn't an issue anymore - if I were being set up to win, had 7 million in profits..... there's no way a cheating game would let me lost that all.

Fossell ? Yes and others have ranked high on the leaderboard - because they know what they are doing.
Instead of credit for that, it's easier for you to say 'see, anyone can do it if you just play long enough'.
This isn't the case. If you aren't using something of value, you'll lose.
If you don't make a profit regardless of how big your bankroll is, you won't be on the leaderboard. It resets weekly. The only way I could rank so high week after week for that entire period of time is because what I'm saying is true.
While people might say I'm ego driven (lol). On the same note, I can say that many people won't give an ounce of credit where credit is due - because then they can't keep complaining. You would rather tell someone that they "think they know everything" instead of accepting the possibility that they know more than you think they do - where is the ego problem then ? Not with me.

On the other topic, I had to laugh. In the "Old days" you could certainly hop on a tour bus (I think it was Tuesdays and Thursdays) at the local diner here and they would take you to AC - they gave you a voucher - once inside the casino the voucher was turned in and they gave you $20.00 cash. You didn't have to gamble.
In your logic - "A person could ride the bus twice per week for a month and be on the leaderboard with $160.00 !"
But like I said, that 160.00 wouldn't count towards profits at the site, so no. They would have a typical starting bankroll - where it came from is irrelevant. I posted results - profit from playing. No bonus amounts included.
And "playing long enough" isn't relevant. So you're saying if they gave me $20.00 every day - if I played small amounts and took the bus every week for months - eventually I could win the leaderboard !!  That's absurd.
Just think of it this way - whatever they give you in points is a bankroll for that visit.
Or better yet - with $100.00 minimum bet - how long do you think that little sign in bonus can last ? Laughs.
Maybe 10 minutes if you spin the wheel slow.
The site wasn't fixed for everyone to win and was proven. The results were random and realistic and was proven. Anyone could do the same to see for themselves.
But I understand it's a whole lot easier to say it's luck or fixed - or that I don't know math (laughs) - it doesn't matter.
I made claims, I explained it - I showed results... not accepting it or understanding it isn't my problem.
and I'm out. (is it baiting if I leave again for a few months ? lol. I hope not, what choice do I have other than copy/pasting my own explanations over and over again).

[TurboGenius]

"Lets say we wait until there is only 1 street left to show and then bet on it for 1 spin - knowing it could be 40+ spins before that last street shows. It's a great way to lose that bet."
--TurboGenius, 03-Jul-2017

I was openly asking people what they would bet if their only goal was to lose - I wasn't posting that street example as a way of playing. Just to be clear.

[falkor2k15]

I was openly asking people what they would bet if their only goal was to lose - I wasn't posting that street example as a way of playing. Just to be clear.

Your original statement is clear - you are claiming negative edge re: first bet on the coldest street.

[Steve]

Any bonus points for logging in - even points purchased for that matter - DO NOT count as a profit of any kind.

I know that. But your winnings with free money do count. Thats my point.
You still arent understanding the math.

[wiggy]

Distribution for streets!

[Bayes]

FWIW I don't think Turbo is on an ego-trip either, but I do think he's misleading himself, and therefore others too. He showed us his results from parx, which seem impressive. Over 24,000 bets is quite a lot, but without knowing the drawdowns, the progression used, and how many numbers are bet it's hard reach a firm conclusion; you certainly can't claim it's a "long-term" winner just on that basis.  Without the details you have to fall back on the logic, which just doesn't hold up.

In his defense though, there is some mathematical justification for picking hot numbers. Maximum Likelihood Estimation is a widely used statistical technique for "guessing" the probability of an event based on the data (past results). The MLE gives you the "best guess" and always turns out to be the event which occurs more often than other events, because it produces the maximum probability. So according to the MLE criteria, it makes no sense to bet on cold numbers because if you calculate their probabiliities they will always be the lowest, based on the data you actually have. The problem is that for random outcomes (without taking into account other factors), the past results are an unreliable indicator of future results. If the outcomes are not random then you're ok, so in the case of a biased wheel, even if you don't know where the bias is if you're betting those numbers which give the maximum probability you will end up betting on the "right" numbers if the wheel actually is biased.

There's another slightly more mathematical example of MLE here: link:://statgen.iop.kcl.ac.uk/bgim/mle/sslike_3.html

[cht]

The wheel could be bias just that we don't know it's bias. The data suggests a bias distribution, good enough for betting the hot numbers so long as the pattern is clearly recognised.

[falkor2k15]

COLDEST STREET TEST

Turbo claims there is negative edge for the first bet on the coldest street:

"Lets say we wait until there is only 1 street left to show and then bet on it for 1 spin - knowing it could be 40+ spins before that last street shows. It's a great way to lose that bet."
--TurboGenius, 03-Jul-2017

Number of real casino spins: 1,000,000 (excl. zero)
Starting BR: 1,000
Finishing BR: -294

Download full results... (open in Firefox - not Chrome or IE or Safari)

For those interested in carrying out a trend analysis: soon I will post a single page breakdown showing all placed bets. And I will repeat this for a 2nd dataset @ 1,000,000 spins, but without giving the full results.

[falkor2k15]

COLDEST STREET TEST

2nd dataset finished similar to first...

Number of real casino spins: 1,000,000 (excl. zero)
Starting BR: 1,000
Finishing BR: -239

Download single page summaries...

TurboGenius vindicated/acquitted...?