@ turbo

[thelaw]

After running only billions of spins......

[RouletteGhost]

Lmao. On a roll lately

[Priyanka]

38 numbers in 38 spins is as rare as any other combination.

Steve - I think you are a little bit stuck there. You are right about the fact there. But Turbo is also talking about simple math probability. For once I agree with turbo that winning this game is in the repeaters. You don't have to know exactly where it happens, you only need to know almost where it happens to win. His statement about a number has to appear once before it can appear twice and it has to appear twice before it can appear thrice says it all. Sounds simple as it may be, it's the core of proabability and accuracy of prediction that you keep talking about. 

Turbo is not looking for patterns that are static. Even when the event happens where 38 numbers appear in 38 spins, turbo will be losing only a cycle. For him to lose, that 38 numbers appearing in 38 spins needs to happen multiple times in the same order it appeared the first time. And in the funny world of mathermatics there is a probability of that happening too

[maestro]

even this event happen..turbo still hits simply because with 38 numbers you got 19 pairs so before 38 hits uniques happen will be full pair to hit else would be repeater

[RouletteGhost]

It's so simple what turbo is saying

Really

This is not rocket science

[TurboGenius]

Turbo is not looking for patterns that are static. Even when the event happens where 38 numbers appear in 38 spins, turbo will be losing only a cycle. For him to lose, that 38 numbers appearing in 38 spins needs to happen multiple times in the same order it appeared the first time.

I can't believe I'm saying this but...... thanks and you're right.

even this event happen..turbo still hits simply because with 38 numbers you got 19 pairs so before 38 hits uniques happen will be full pair to hit else would be repeater

It's even better than that - I can't lose because I'm not betting on numbers that aren't appearing.
If 38 numbers could possible show in 38 spins - I still won't have lost a single bet. I won't have even bet.
There is only one way to win at roulette - you play numbers that are appearing and don't play numbers that aren't. (see Common Sense thread). You simply can't lose on a number(s) that don't show up. You win multiple times on numbers that repeat.

Nope, not rocket science at all.
When you work it out - you'll get consistent charts like posted below in my signature. You'll actually do better because the ability to use a much more aggressive progression will simply skyrocket the chart and make mine look a bit silly.

[RouletteGhost]

Brilliant. Effing brilliant

If 38 uniques show in 38 spins there wouldn't even be a bet placed

Good lord

Bravo

Top math cats won't admit it but this is amazing. Know this

[Steve]

I perfectly understand what is being said. The problem is its incorrect. The proof is in basic testing.

[RouletteGhost]

Steve explain what is not correct

Try not to use the 38 in 38 argument cause it's never gonna happen

[Steve]

Turbo and co, what you're not understanding is there is no sequence or short term bias like you specified. Its fallacy.

How can you be sure? Test billions or trillions of spins and see. If you don't know better, you might think such a large test is a joke.  Is more data and being more sure a joke?

All that matters is the odds on the next spin. Repeaters don't change it.

Let's not argue.  Let's do some proper testing, ok?

[RouletteGhost]

There's no fallacy here

The only fallacy is saying we don't know what the repeaters will be

Twos will become threes in cycles.

[Steve]

Rg, the odds of any sequence of 38 spins are the same.  The wheel doesn't give a crap what spun before.

So when you base any system on a sequence of spins just because it makes sense in your own head doesn't change anything. Amy sequence happens just as often as another so the bet selection doesn't change anything.

Again, let's do some testing...

[rouletteKEY]

Discipline won't get you anywhere unless you have a real strategy behind it - it will simply delay the inevitable at the rate of chips you are risking for whatever return. Everything will break even or lose the house advantage unless using specific concepts designed to work around variance. Short term is best to cover most of the board, but you might get killed off instantly. Long term is best to bet small, and you might win big at the start. Either way you are heading towards the house advantage the longer you play. So discipline cannot help long term. I think a lot of people don't realise this because they don't practise using simulators.

I assure you I have a real strategy and pretty disciplined...painfully so sometimes

The erosion of bankroll to the house edge is not inevitable at all and variance to a certain extent can be controlled...more so long term than short...but both have an element of control available

I have played live wheel tens of thousand of spins and they have all been written down and analyzed...live wheels...air ball...never rng  The variance can be limited to a workable number

If you simply look at the basic concept of numbers that have hit vs numbers that have slept in any given sequence you can see the raw data

Just took the top sheet off my stack of spins
38 spins
1 - 5x
1- 4x
2 -3x
5 - repeats
13 - single hits

22 numbers hit
16 with nothing

next 6 spins
5 of the 6 hits came from numbers in the last 38 spins...and 22 is on the short side of the norm because of the 5 time and 4 time hitters...so there were plenty of numbers that had not hit in now 44 spins just sitting there waiting...while somebody plays those 16 sleepers they get one hit...the guy on the 22 that had hit...5 hits

next 6 spins (against the rolling 38 previous numbers)
4 hits on previously hit numbers...2 misses

next 6 spins
again 4 hits against 2 misses

Now if I play lets say 26 numbers (to get closer to the norm for examples sake) and get 4 hits and 2 misses every six spins without money management and stoplosses I am pretty close to the HE...but I killed it upfront in the first 38 spins (I probably picked a bad example...again a 5 and a 4 hitter are a little out of ordinary but wasn't gonna grab a second sheet for times sake)

But the player using sleepers or even a random sampling of numbers not taking into account what had already hit...that player is likely getting maybe a 50/50 ratio on this particular 26 number bet (I know each 26 number bet would have different results...just looking at one example with real spins I played)...I win 67%...there's an edge regardless of whoevers head is exploding with applying a belief that because 38 unique numbers can show...that they will show

Now I personally would never play a 20-28 number bet...because there isn't enough upside...negative progression could get me in trouble quickly with just a single dry spell and positive progression isn't really feasible because of too many numbers

But...if I can concentrate on a changing rotation of 20-28 numbers to select from out of the 38 available and look at hot wheel sectors and do a little (alot actually) of analysis of how to ride the waves of numbers as they appear and repeat and have enough bankroll to see things thru

My odds are better in the long run than anyone is going to give me credit for...

add negative and positive progressions into the mix and with stringent applications of stop losses (discipline) I come around to like the math

[rouletteKEY]

All that matters is the odds on the next spin.

Not gonna argue...but the next spin is only important to me in that it's part of a planned series of bets over a series of spins and because I am playing those spins as a group (I know it's a group of individual spins) and because I can apply stop losses and progressions I may not change the "odds" per se

But I can have a positive effect on my bankroll

[falkor2k15]

rouletteKEY, the more numbers you cover the more risk for less reward - regardless of how many hits they've had in the past. Why not do a simulation over 10K spins or give me exact instructions on how you bet the numbers and I'll sim and post the results.