Left-brained attempt at beating variance (WIP)

[falkor2k15]

OK, I am going to attempt to beat variance over the next few days/weeks using the left side of my brain! Have I got what it takes I wonder? If I get stuck then please feel free to offer me hints, tips and advice to get me back on track!

So there are two stages to beating roulette as covered by these two topics:
1) Find a stable bet selection (link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15938.0)
2) Win based on variance (link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15870.0)

Both topics were created at the same time in Sep 2015 and both are designed to be read together = Holy Grail.



Surreal Numbers And Mathematical Games (informative video presentation): link:s://:.youtube.com/watch?v=xpXoluxBYw0

The above video sets the agenda together with the topics, and I'll be using them for reference.

Firstly, I am going to start by comparing Red/Black vs. VdW in terms of win/lose ratio and stability. If one is really better than the other in terms of low bandwidth variance then I will proceed with finding the constant ratios/maths expectation for CL1, CL2 and CL3 of Dozen Cycles over 1 million spins, as they should also have low bandwidth and are much easier to play than VdW. Variance is meant to reduce, you see, over a large data set (or sample size?)

If all goes well then I will move into studying the combined sequences and see how long they generally take to reach maths expectation, but disregarding 0 to begin with. Finally, I want to attempt to beat the variance over 100 spins before trying to reduce that to a third or less, and we'll see where that leads... to another dead topic perhaps? 

[Turner]

using the left side of my brain! Have I got what it takes I wonder

What?....have a brain? Lol
Joke !!!!!!

[thelaw]

Another Falkor thread. Wonder how this one will end......

[falkor2k15]

I simulated 10 x 100 game results for both VdW and Red-Black, and the results were as follows:

VDW	Win	Lose	Difference
1	59	41	9
2	47	53	3
3	53	47	3
4	48	52	2
5	50	50	0
6	45	55	5
7	55	45	5
8	52	48	2
9	55	45	5
10	50	50	0
			3.4	AVG
R-B	Black	Red	Difference
1	47	53	3
2	48	52	2
3	54	46	4
4	51	49	1
5	57	43	7
6	41	59	9
7	48	52	2
8	64	36	14
9	58	42	8
10	48	52	2
			5.2	AVG

Red-Black had an average difference of 5.2, but VdW had a more narrower bandwidth averaging 3.4!

Clusters test was only 1 for game each:

VdW
24
12
7
1
5
0
1

R-B
16
7
8
6
0
1
1
0
1

VdW had more clusters of 1 and 2 in a row compared to R-B
VdW max cluster was 7, but R-B had clusters of 7 and 9

[falkor2k15]

Another cluster test:

VdW
17
6
10
6
1
7

R-B
25
11
4
3
2
1
1
1

This time R-B had more 1-2 clusters - though VdW still had less extreme clusters (max: 6) compared to R-B (max: 8 )

[falkor2k15]

I did a more lengthy clusters test and VdW is not different to RB in that respect...

RB
1	2374	49%
2	1204	25%
3	648	13%
4	311	6%
5	163	3%
6	79	2%
7	41	1%
8	19	0%
9	19	0%
10	9	0%
11	1	0%
12	2	0%
	4870
VdW
1	2434	50%
2	1191	24%
3	636	13%
4	306	6%
5	152	3%
6	74	2%
7	38	1%
8	21	0%
9	9	0%
10	4	0%
11	2	0%
12	2	0%
15	1	0%
	4870

[falkor2k15]

I tested 300 games for VdW and R-B - both comparable! So I think that Priyanka and her team are either deluded or deliberately lying to us about Non-Random bet selections being more stable (or having less wider swings) than Random bet-selections. So unfortunately I need to abort this project earlier than expected. VdW really is no different to playing red or black.

VDW				R-B
59	41	9		53	47	3
47	53	3		52	48	2
53	47	3		46	54	4
48	52	2		49	51	1
50	50	0		43	57	7
45	55	5		59	41	9
55	45	5		52	48	2
52	48	2		36	64	14
55	45	5		42	58	8
50	50	0		52	48	2
49	51	1		47	53	3
56	44	6		48	52	2
49	51	1		46	54	4
53	47	3		51	49	1
43	57	7		46	54	4
48	52	2		35	65	15
49	51	1		50	50	0
58	42	8		53	47	3
57	43	7		38	62	12
55	45	5		45	55	5
59	41	9		50	50	0
56	44	6		53	47	3
48	52	2		47	53	3
42	58	8		50	50	0
52	48	2		47	53	3
54	46	4		52	48	2
46	54	4		49	51	1
29	71	21		53	47	3
51	49	1		47	53	3
49	51	1		53	47	3
58	42	8		40	60	10
47	53	3		45	55	5
45	55	5		52	48	2
52	48	2		55	45	5
52	48	2		48	52	2
50	50	0		47	53	3
64	36	14		49	51	1
53	47	3		49	51	1
56	44	6		43	57	7
52	48	2		48	52	2
56	44	6		49	51	1
54	46	4		55	45	5
44	56	6		49	51	1
53	47	3		44	56	6
55	45	5		48	52	2
55	45	5		49	51	1
55	45	5		58	42	8
50	50	0		46	54	4
43	57	7		49	51	1
55	45	5		62	38	12
46	54	4		51	49	1
47	53	3		43	57	7
53	47	3		53	47	3
46	54	4		46	54	4
55	45	5		53	47	3
55	45	5		48	52	2
52	48	2		38	62	12
54	46	4		47	53	3
41	59	9		52	48	2
48	52	2		48	52	2
48	52	2		49	51	1
44	56	6		45	55	5
46	54	4		47	53	3
55	45	5		55	45	5
53	47	3		41	59	9
49	51	1		42	58	8
48	52	2		54	46	4
46	54	4		46	54	4
54	46	4		37	63	13
50	50	0		51	49	1
41	59	9		50	50	0
41	59	9		57	43	7
51	49	1		49	51	1
46	54	4		47	53	3
42	58	8		40	60	10
51	49	1		47	53	3
56	44	6		54	46	4
50	50	0		50	50	0
40	60	10		50	50	0
52	48	2		45	55	5
46	54	4		56	44	6
52	48	2		46	54	4
47	53	3		49	51	1
55	45	5		52	48	2
42	58	8		48	52	2
51	49	1		41	59	9
53	47	3		45	55	5
47	53	3		46	54	4
53	47	3		46	54	4
46	54	4		51	49	1
53	47	3		45	55	5
49	51	1		52	48	2
51	49	1		51	49	1
42	58	8		45	55	5
58	42	8		43	57	7
45	55	5		54	46	4
47	53	3		49	51	1
45	55	5		46	54	4
60	40	10		49	51	1
53	47	3		46	54	4
54	46	4		42	58	8
50	50	0		41	59	9
52	48	2		61	39	11
57	43	7		53	47	3
44	56	6		49	51	1
49	51	1		48	52	2
50	50	0		46	54	4
53	47	3		53	47	3
50	50	0		45	55	5
49	51	1		45	55	5
54	46	4		47	53	3
45	55	5		56	44	6
40	60	10		51	49	1
58	42	8		53	47	3
55	45	5		48	52	2
53	47	3		48	52	2
51	49	1		43	57	7
42	58	8		61	39	11
53	47	3		45	55	5
50	50	0		48	52	2
54	46	4		57	43	7
52	48	2		45	55	5
50	50	0		50	50	0
47	53	3		49	51	1
45	55	5		46	54	4
54	46	4		49	51	1
54	46	4		51	49	1
49	51	1		55	45	5
47	53	3		52	48	2
41	59	9		49	51	1
52	48	2		52	48	2
47	53	3		53	47	3
59	41	9		57	43	7
45	55	5		43	57	7
43	57	7		56	44	6
42	58	8		36	64	14
57	43	7		48	52	2
52	48	2		60	40	10
40	60	10		51	49	1
55	45	5		50	50	0
52	48	2		59	41	9
49	51	1		51	49	1
53	47	3		40	60	10
47	53	3		51	49	1
42	58	8		55	45	5
49	51	1		49	51	1
56	44	6		49	51	1
50	50	0		44	56	6
62	38	12		42	58	8
52	48	2		46	54	4
44	56	6		47	53	3
57	43	7		50	50	0
52	48	2		53	47	3
46	54	4		45	55	5
56	44	6		52	48	2
43	57	7		51	49	1
49	51	1		51	49	1
47	53	3		48	52	2
44	56	6		46	54	4
48	52	2		52	48	2
39	61	11		42	58	8
52	48	2		43	57	7
52	48	2		55	45	5
52	48	2		52	48	2
56	44	6		43	57	7
53	47	3		54	46	4
59	41	9		50	50	0
51	49	1		54	46	4
46	54	4		43	57	7
49	51	1		46	54	4
65	35	15		47	53	3
52	48	2		47	53	3
49	51	1		55	45	5
56	44	6		44	56	6
51	49	1		59	41	9
50	50	0		55	45	5
59	41	9		48	52	2
50	50	0		45	55	5
52	48	2		49	51	1
49	51	1		54	46	4
56	44	6		55	45	5
58	42	8		50	50	0
51	49	1		48	52	2
47	53	3		48	52	2
54	46	4		49	51	1
45	55	5		56	44	6
52	48	2		49	51	1
58	42	8		60	40	10
55	45	5		40	60	10
56	44	6		41	59	9
41	59	9		42	58	8
57	43	7		39	61	11
52	48	2		53	47	3
56	44	6		53	47	3
52	48	2		51	49	1
53	47	3		45	55	5
44	56	6		51	49	1
58	42	8		44	56	6
57	43	7		48	52	2
60	40	10		47	53	3
57	43	7		53	47	3
47	53	3		45	55	5
46	54	4		53	47	3
55	45	5		57	43	7
49	51	1		50	50	0
51	49	1		46	54	4
57	43	7		49	51	1
56	44	6		50	50	0
53	47	3		45	55	5
58	42	8		52	48	2
46	54	4		63	37	13
49	51	1		53	47	3
53	47	3		51	49	1
53	47	3		45	55	5
52	48	2		44	56	6
45	55	5		47	53	3
42	58	8		45	55	5
53	47	3		50	50	0
51	49	1		48	52	2
60	40	10		43	57	7
53	47	3		50	50	0
55	45	5		51	49	1
48	52	2		47	53	3
58	42	8		46	54	4
55	45	5		41	59	9
44	56	6		52	48	2
45	55	5		56	44	6
52	48	2		54	46	4
47	53	3		47	53	3
46	54	4		49	51	1
53	47	3		39	61	11
44	56	6		46	54	4
51	49	1		53	47	3
54	46	4		46	54	4
47	53	3		50	50	0
46	54	4		51	49	1
43	57	7		52	48	2
45	55	5		37	63	13
51	49	1		52	48	2
60	40	10		42	58	8
45	55	5		52	48	2
58	42	8		48	52	2
49	51	1		63	37	13
49	51	1		54	46	4
45	55	5		48	52	2
47	53	3		48	52	2
42	58	8		45	55	5
44	56	6		49	51	1
54	46	4		50	50	0
48	52	2		53	47	3
43	57	7		50	50	0
49	51	1		45	55	5
59	41	9		60	40	10
58	42	8		47	53	3
52	48	2		40	60	10
57	43	7		49	51	1
44	56	6		50	50	0
60	40	10		50	50	0
48	52	2		42	58	8
54	46	4		45	55	5
49	51	1		41	59	9
55	45	5		45	55	5
45	55	5		49	51	1
49	51	1		45	55	5
55	45	5		48	52	2
56	44	6		42	58	8
46	54	4		36	64	14
52	48	2		51	49	1
51	49	1		43	57	7
45	55	5		37	63	13
51	49	1		47	53	3
54	46	4		49	51	1
44	56	6		43	57	7
44	56	6		50	50	0
42	58	8		52	48	2
53	47	3		50	50	0
60	40	10		48	52	2
54	46	4		42	58	8
45	55	5		41	59	9
52	48	2		41	59	9
60	40	10		51	49	1
53	47	3		47	53	3
50	50	0		47	53	3
47	53	3		50	50	0
48	52	2		50	50	0
53	47	3		49	51	1
49	51	1		43	57	7
54	46	4		49	51	1
52	48	2		37	63	13
53	47	3		46	54	4
57	43	7		53	47	3
53	47	3		42	58	8
55	45	5		46	54	4
53	47	3		48	52	2
51	49	1		46	54	4
52	48	2		50	50	0
48	52	2		45	55	5
48	52	2		54	46	4
50	50	0		44	56	6
		4.254180602				4.100334448

[mogul397]

Another cluster test:

VdW
17
6
10
6
1
7

R-B
25
11
4
3
2
1
1
1

This time R-B had more 1-2 clusters - though VdW still had less extreme clusters (max: 6) compared to R-B (max: 8 )

Is this a "cluster F$%$%"?

[falkor2k15]

Mogul, the more lengthy clusters test was posted below that, so this gives us a more better picture:

RB      
1   2374   49%
2   1204   25%
3   648   13%
4   311   6%
5   163   3%
6   79   2%
7   41   1%
8   19   0%
9   19   0%
10   9   0%
11   1   0%
12   2   0%
4870   
VdW      
1   2434   50%
2   1191   24%
3   636   13%
4   306   6%
5   152   3%
6   74   2%
7   38   1%
8   21   0%
9   9   0%
10   4   0%
11   2   0%
12   2   0%
15   1   0%
4870

This counts 1 in a row, 2 in a row, etc.

[praline]

Does this give us any advantage?

[falkor2k15]

Does this give us any advantage?

Nope. VdW is a mechanical Non-Random way of betting based on repeats: when a clash occurs then we simply do not bet. However, I've shown above that it's no different to betting any official EC position. In fact, I suspected this last year. It was claimed that Non-Random bet selections do not "swing" wildly from their maths-expected win/lose ratios - in this case 50% - but actually it's untrue. It was said that Non-Random bet selections have little or no variance, but they are in fact comparable. This was all packaged together with "deficit recovery" (incidentally does happens to be true) as a way of defending the low variance claim.

Let's look at EC Cycles as an example of why I suspected Pri's variance claims after exposing principle A cycles as having nothing to do with the previous cycle:

RBB = CL2
RR = CL1

Above, both CL repeat events were dependent on what uniques came before the repeat:
R dependency B dependency B = repeat
R dependency R = repeat

Or another way of looking at it:
R... more chance for R to repeat
RB... equal chance for R or B to repeat

This is simply because R/B are "1 up" so they are closer to "2 up" than those that are still entirely sleeping - and got nothing to do with the previous cycle, ala "defined by same".

But once a repeat happens then each CL event as part of a sequence is independent from each other:
CL1 independent CL1 independent CL2...

Or another way:
(R dependent B dependent B = CL2) independent (B dependent B = CL1)

Therefore, all multi-spin events, such as CL1 or CL2 in cycles, are independent in the same way that one spin events are independent, such as normal ECs. That independence is what ensures variance will behave the same whether playing for non-random repeat events or single spin events.

CL1/CL2 will behave the same as normal R/B because they are independent - the bit we have no control over! That doesn't mean variance cannot be beaten or that deficit recovery cannot help - it just means that we should expect variance to behave the same way for all bet selections - random/non-random notwithstanding - based on their maths expectation: 50% for EC/cycles/VdW. A double-dozen bet is 66% so that the variance will behave the same as any other 66% event, and so on and so forth, etc.

So we may not have found a loophole yet with regards to Roulette, but I am certainly finding holes in many of Priyanka's claims.

[praline]

Can you make some tests with vdw on last 18 numbers that are changing constantly?

[falkor2k15]

Can you make some tests with vdw on last 18 numbers that are changing constantly?

This topic was about testing variance only. VdW is a waste of time. If we want to try to reduce apples and pears we can stick to normal Red and Black. I doubt Manrique would have bothered with VdW or this Non-Random nonsense... nothing but glorified combination repeats in an attempt to turn this forum into a sequel to The Prestige.

The Flat Earth has sound evidence if not conclusive proof. What have we got for Non-Random? Nothing.

The best one was when Priyanka said that dead-heats/dead-runs stops Non-Random from working out of the box...

A dead-heat in terms of EC Cycles:
CL2CL2CL2
or
RBRBRBR

This is no different to saying that red stops black from working out of the box when betting ECs normally:
RRRRRRR

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz 

[falkor2k15]

I didn't really plan to continue with this, but I thought I would have a little mess around when bored and nothing to do...

When betting CL1,2,3 (Dozen cycles) the most common 2-event sequence is CL2CL2, but that is more costly than CL1CL1 - occurs less and is cheaper.

So what I wanted to look at was the gaps between events since CL2 costs 2 units, CL1 costs 1 unit, but gaps are neutral.

I have tied my hands behind my back and only allowed myself to bet CL2. And here's examples of 2-event sequences that include gaps (followed by CL2 wins in a row):

G 2 W 2

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 3

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 5 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 2

G 5 W 3

G 1 W 1

G 5 W 1

G 3 W 1

G 2 W 2

G 1 W 3

G 1 W 3

G 2 W 1

G 1 W 3

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 3

G 2 W 1

G 3 W 3

G 2 W 2

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 7 W 2

G 4 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 2

G 4 W 1

G 1 W 3

G 1 W 2

G 3 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 3

G 1 W 4

G 2 W 1

G 3 W 1

G 2 W 2

G 2 W 4

G 2 W 1

G 5 W 2

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 2

G 2 W 2

G 1 W 1

G 4 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 3 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 1

G 1 W 5

G 3 W 2

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 1

G 1 W 2

G 3 W 1

G 1 W 2

G 2 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 1

G 2 W 3

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 4

G 2 W 3

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 3

G 3 W 1

G 2 W 4

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 3 W 2

G 2 W 1

G 2 W 2

G 3 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 5

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 4

G 3 W 1

G 4 W 4

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 2

G 5 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 2

G 3 W 2

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 2

G 1 W 2

G 1 W 3

G 4 W 1

G 1 W 2

G 2 W 2

G 1 W 1

G 3 W 2

G 1 W 2

G 1 W 2

G 3 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 3 W 2

G 2 W 1

G 1 W 2

G 1 W 2

G 1 W 2

G 5 W 4

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 2

G 3 W 3

G 2 W 2

G 2 W 2

G 4 W 3

G 1 W 3

G 1 W 1

G 3 W 5

G 3 W 4

G 1 W 1

G 1 W 1

G 6 W 1

G 3 W 1

G 3 W 1

G 3 W 1

G 2 W 1

G 1 W 3

G 1 W 1

G 2 W 1

[falkor2k15]

How did I know 1-1 would be at the top! 

G 1 W 1	3160
G 2 W 1	1748
G 1 W 2	1376
G 3 W 1	996
G 2 W 2	763
G 1 W 3	629
G 4 W 1	555
G 3 W 2	423
G 2 W 3	343
G 5 W 1	279
G 1 W 4	270
G 4 W 2	246
G 3 W 3	212
G 6 W 1	161
G 2 W 4	148
G 5 W 2	138
G 1 W 5	124
G 4 W 3	108
G 3 W 4	91
G 6 W 2	76
G 2 W 5	66
G 5 W 3	63
G 7 W 1	62
G 8 W 1	53
G 1 W 6	50
G 4 W 4	43
G 9 W 1	34
G 2 W 6	34
G 5 W 4	33
G 3 W 5	30
G 7 W 2	30
G 8 W 2	27
G 6 W 3	26
G 4 W 5	25
G 10 W 1	23
G 7 W 3	22
G 3 W 6	21
G 1 W 7	21
G 1 W 8	17
G 5 W 5	17
G 2 W 7	12
G 8 W 3	11
G 6 W 4	10
G 5 W 6	9
G 4 W 6	9
G 11 W 1	8
G 7 W 5	8
G 9 W 2	8
G 7 W 4	8
G 3 W 7	7
G 1 W 9	7
G 6 W 5	6
G 13 W 1	6
G 9 W 3	5
G 2 W 9	4
G 2 W 8	4
G 12 W 1	4
G 3 W 8	3
G 8 W 4	3
G 12 W 2	3
G 11 W 3	3
G 4 W 7	3
G 10 W 2	3
G 5 W 7	2
G 3 W 10	2
G 10 W 3	2
G 5 W 8	2
G 4 W 8	2
G 8 W 5	2
G 16 W 1	2
G 6 W 6	2
G 2 W 11	2
G 11 W 2	2
G 1 W 11	1
G 2 W 15	1
G 6 W 7	1
G 8 W 9	1
G 7 W 8	1
G 5 W 11	1
G 14 W 3	1
G 14 W 1	1
G 11 W 4	1
G 7 W 7	1
G 3 W 9	1
G 8 W 8	1
G 1 W 12	1
G 10 W 4	1
G 9 W 4	1
G 3 W 11	1
G 7 W 9	1
G 11 W 5	1
G 23 W 1	1
G 13 W 2	1
G 6 W 10	1
G 1 W 10	1