Overcoming variance with Deficit Recovery

[falkor2k15]

This forum seems dead... nobody discussing any good ideas other than the usual... random triggers.

I think I've finally figured out how to beat Roulette thanks to some recent deep thought on the subject as well as a reminder from member Madi about some old advice regarding dispersion and avoiding variance. Madi also mentioned about a "light progression" - something that has been touted about quite a lot and may actually be a requirement. Thanks Madi! 

We need to use outcomes that are not equally likely, i.e. Dozen Cycles CL1-3, and in 100 cycles we can say that variance would have reduced to the point where we can predict CL2 will be greater than CL1, which in turn will be greater than CL3, i.e. 33-44-22 to match maths expectation after 100 cycles; we can be pretty sure most will end up like that: CL2 > CL1 > CL3. This is known as "full recovery".

Before reaching full recovery we typically start out with a deficit/distance/gap that needs to be reduced and closed:
402 = 4 x CL1, 0 x CL2, 2 x CL3

CL2 now has a deficit of 5, i.e. it needs a total of 5 wins to recover and overtake CL1, which we know is how it will eventually end after however many number of cycles it takes.

So we bet CL2 and win:
412

We bet CL2 again but lose
413

We now stop betting as the deficit/gap becomes wider.
513

So we don't bet and get a virtual win:
523

The gap is now starting to close - but this is the 2nd time we tried to jump on that wave - so we need to increase our bet, i.e. a steady progression
533

Recovery is now eminent - overall we expect more wins than losses by the time we reach full recovery.
543
553
554
564

We've now reached full recovery: CL2 > CL1 > CL3.

So to recap: once a gap/distance has formed due to variance - it has to close (or "recover"). Overall we expect more wins than losses, but depending on the amount of swings will depend on how we increase chips.

Here's an example of bad variance/dispersion: 426

Based on the above example recovery can come in several stages prior to full recovery:
*CL2 > CL3 but not CL1, i.e. 876
*CL2 > CL1 but not CL3, i.e. 456
*CL1 > CL3 but less than CL2, i.e. 726
*CL2 > CL1 > CL3, i.e. 786

Above there is a maximum of 4 stages to reaching full recovery, so it may be possible to win at the partial recovery stage.

When tracking 6 outcomes that are not equally likely, i.e. Line Cycles or 6 options (Dozen Cycles Order+CL) then we have at least 6 possible stages before full recovery.

Any questions/feedback?

[Turner]

nobody discussing any good ideas

I have to tell you, I dont discuss in your posts because I have to admit, I havnt got a clue what you are talking about

Its not in a language I understand.

Hope that helps.

[denzie]

I have to tell you, I dont discuss in your posts because I have to admit, I havnt got a clue what you are talking about

Its not in a language I understand.

Hope that helps.

Same here 

[falkor2k15]

What part isn't clear? 

[Rolletti]

I really would like to see a system based on your insightes be coded. Should not be too hard to do and check if it holds up flat bet or is working with progressions.

Unfortunately I expect it to have the same variance as just playing dozens straight away.

[denzie]

What part isn't clear? 

About all of it.

Now you talk about variance and recovery.
Did you saw how TG explained how the HE was break even after betting when a # number showed up? 

Meaning most sessions we win easily. But those we didn't we could certainly reduce our loss or come out winning 

Stop with dozens and columns . Inside bets only. Imo

[falkor2k15]

All of it!? Sounds like an overstatement! I would suggest going over each paragraph, if not sentence, and state which part(s) you understand and which part(s) you don't. You could also consider possible interpretations and describe how it comes across as non-nonsensical, i.e. "Are you perhaps referring to this or this?" or "You mean when this happens this happens?" or "What does that abbreviation/term mean? I never heard of that before" or "How can that be the same as that because below you said it was that". These are all examples of trying to understand what somebody is saying and communicating feedback to aid in working towards a more common understanding. Unless efforts are made here then it would suggest more the laziness of the reader as opposed to the incoherency of the writer.

[falkor2k15]

I really would like to see a system based on your insightes be coded. Should not be too hard to do and check if it holds up flat bet or is working with progressions.

Unfortunately I expect it to have the same variance as just playing dozens straight away.

I don't think it can work with flat-betting - it will need a steady progression for each swing. Perhaps with a deeper study of the dispersion waves and the limits of the outward swing, a flat-betting solution could be found. However, here we only bet during recovery - we don't bet when more deficit is being formed.

[falkor2k15]

I wanted to share some stats regarding CL2 recovery:

CL2 Recovered
Cycle 1	44%
Cycle 2	20%
Cycle 3	42%
Cycle 4	33%
Cycle 5	42%
Cycle 6	46%
Cycle 7	48%
Cycle 8	47%
Cycle 9	51%
Cycle 10	57%

010	38110	44%	110	25391		111	16982		121	14940	17%	221	12466		231	10978	13%
100	28659		020	16930	20%	120	16901	20%	220	11385		131	10923	13%	321	8455
001	19100		011	16815		210	12806		211	11365		122	8517		222	8379
	85869		101	12860		021	11303	13%	130	9960	12%	230	8448	10%	132	7457	9%
			200	9574		030	7510	9%	112	7629		320	6387		141	7296	8%
			002	4299		201	6391		031	6596		311	6361		240	5647	7%
				85869		012	5615		310	5664		212	6229		330	5635
						102	4334		022	5047		140	5575	6%	312	4172
						300	3076		040	3428	4%	032	3771	4%	123	3859
						003	951		301	2844		041	3680	4%	411	3252
							85869		202	2743		113	2860		420	3182
									013	1732		410	2328		150	2998	3%
									103	1310		023	1825	2%	213	2729
									400	1051		050	1538	2%	042	2526	3%
									004	175		302	1507		051	1978	2%
										85869		401	1224		033	1623
												203	1062		114	906
												014	462		510	904
												500	331		402	794
												104	329		060	663	1%
												005	46		303	662
													85869		024	626
															501	460
															204	364
															015	123
															600	111
															105	82
															006	8
		44%			20%			42%			33%			42%		85869	46%
Event 1			Event 2			Event 3			Event 4			Event 5			Event 6

[Rolletti]

What means spelled out in words? If you care, please!

[RouletteGhost]

What means spelled out in words? If you care, please!

We will get nothing

I think he is a misinformation agent employed by the NWO

[falkor2k15]

It means that after 10 cycles 57% of CL2 deficits have already recovered, i.e. CL2 is greater than CL1 and CL3. Recovery for CL2 = partial recovery; full recovery is when CL2 has recovered but also CL1 is higher than CL3. Remember, maths expectation is:
CL1 = 33%
CL2 = 44%
CL3 = 22%

If CL1 is ahead of CL2; or CL3 is ahead of either; then it's due to variance - specifically dispersion (=negative variance).

After 100 cycles CL2 should be 99% recovered for all permutations I would imagine.

[Madi]

I dont know about TG . Did he reveal full system ? He said dont bet the number which one didnt appear. Ok i got his point. Then bet on landed number. Not betting on unhit he avoided say 12 number. Good. Now lets take an example. Say in 37 spin cycle 25 single and 12 double hit only. We got 12 double hit by betting on single hit thats good.before starting a 37 spin cycle each number got 1 expectation. The landed number already fulfill its expectation. You are losing on those 12 single hit number but how can we blame those number bcz they fulfill their expectation. I dont know how tg play? To win that 37 spin cycle u need 24 hit or some kind of double hit in those numbers which apear two times.

[Madi]

@ falkor

If u come with example i think work better for everyone.

[denzie]

To win that 37 spin cycle u need 24 hit or some kind of double hit in those numbers which apear two times.

Two or more times with a positive progression 

And knowing how to recover if we get a cycle that isn't hitting on average. That's the most important part of it.