Deficit Recovery: Random vs. Non-Random

[falkor2k15]

Deficit recovery is when something has fallen below maths expectation, so we expect it to recover. For example, Red has 50% chance roughly, so if black is at 75% then we might expect red to catch up? According to Priyanka, no:

"When red goes to 10, can you keep on betting black to balance that count, no."
[19:47][Priyanka]: it is not like 10 reds followed by black..
[19:48][Priyanka]: it is slightly different (betting same)
"Are you able to say that number 36 will be more than any other number? No."

So when it comes to Dozen Cycles, Priyanka said - contrary to the red/black example - that we can play catch up:

19:47][Priyanka]: now betting same is a better option
"eventually the "same" will catch up.. that is statistics and probability for you"
"But can you say that the number of repeating cycles of dozens will be more than number of different cycles of dozens. Yes,"
"When there are 10 different cycles, can you use this count to get back the same cycles up? May be!""

So what is the difference exactly between Red/Black = 50/50 and Dozen Cycles defined by same = 63/37?

How about if we use 2 dozen/1 dozen = 66/33? Can we get the count back up for double dozens like dozen cycles...?

[falkor2k15]

Here's a summary of what Priyanka has said about deficit recovery:
*Dozen cycles is 63% defined by same, but can land 1st 2nd or 3rd spin (= 6 Dozen Options) and 88% of 63% is in first 2 spins.
*Betting same is not like 10 reds followed by 10 blacks.
*When red goes to 10, can you keep on betting black to balance that count, no.
*Find tipping point/entry point once each day... just for understanding!
*Can create own dozens using 3 columns for dddddd
*Same will catch up - but only bet first 2 spins (= options 1 and 2)
*When there are 10 different cycles, can you use this count to get back the same cycles up? May be!
*But try to find a way to "play every spin".

[falkor2k15]

I've just come back from thoroughly testing this inside out, and it seems Priyanka was misleading us again:
Order 1 ("defined by same") always ends up higher than Order 2 or 3 ("defined different") regardless of whether in deficit or not! In fact, Order 2 and 3 come out higher when Order 1 is below maths expectation even though Order 1 always comes out on top after full recovery. And it doesn't matter how much deficit is Order 1, be it 1,>4,>7,>10, the stats are always the same: from deficit to full Order recovery.

As with deceptions about defined by same being based on the previous cycle, this is also a huge disappointment...

[RayManZ]

I have no idea what you mean with order 1, 2 and 3

But if we take a look at dozen cycles. Pri states that a SAME will catch up with different. You say it does not?

So if we bet virtual till we have a -10. We could start flatbet on SAME to make profit? Or not? All those terms you invented make your posts look like egyptian hyroglifics

[falkor2k15]

I have no idea what you mean with order 1, 2 and 3

But if we take a look at dozen cycles. Pri states that a SAME will catch up with different. You say it does not?

So if we bet virtual till we have a -10. We could start flatbet on SAME to make profit? Or not? All those terms you invented make your posts look like egyptian hyroglifics

That's plain wrong. Same is independent of Different. Same will always be more than Different, but doesn't come more if starting less than Different.

If you start flatbetting SAME if DIFF=-10 then there is no profit - comparable to playing for SAME any spin notwithstanding past spins for DIFF. In other words, there is no dependency between same and diff - just like there is no dependency between red and black.

[RayManZ]

Here's a summary of what Priyanka has said about deficit recovery:
*Dozen cycles is 63% defined by same, but can land 1st 2nd or 3rd spin (= 6 Dozen Options) and 88% of 63% is in first 2 spins.
*Betting same is not like 10 reds followed by 10 blacks.
*When red goes to 10, can you keep on betting black to balance that count, no.
*Find tipping point/entry point once each day... just for understanding!
*Can create own dozens using 3 columns for dddddd
*Same will catch up - but only bet first 2 spins (= options 1 and 2)
*When there are 10 different cycles, can you use this count to get back the same cycles up? May be!
*But try to find a way to "play every spin".

But how about this one:
*When there are 10 different cycles, can you use this count to get back the same cycles up? May be!

Maybe you don't understand with Pri was saying?

[falkor2k15]

But how about this one:
*When there are 10 different cycles, can you use this count to get back the same cycles up? May be!

Maybe you don't understand with Pri was saying?

She means defined by different vs. defined by same. And she spoke about the same thing in chat, hence I grouped all her comments together in my opening post.

[RayManZ]

I know... So why don't we bet on that?

You know with what dozen the cycle start. Just virtual bet on that dozen till you have a -10... If you have any profit while virtual betting you just reset.

Now as soon as you have a -10. On that next cycle you start betting for real.

She states it works... Did you test this?

[falkor2k15]

Have tested thoroughly and it fails. There is nothing dynamic about waiting for -10 and then trying to play catch up. Same and Different will behave independently. Here's examples of how deficits of 10 play out when simulating:

10 1def  CL2 o2
9 1rec  CL2 o1
8 1rec  CL1 o1
9 1def  CL2 o2
10 1def  CL2 o2
11 1def  CL2 o2
12 1def  CL2 o2
11 1rec  CL1 o1
11 1neut  CL3 o3
12 1def  CL2 o2
11 1rec  CL1 o1
10 1rec  CL2 o1
11 1def  CL2 o2
10 1rec  CL1 o1
11 1def  CL2 o2
10 1rec  CL3 o1
11 1def  CL2 o2
12 1def  CL2 o2
11 1rec  CL2 o1
10 1rec  CL3 o1
11 1def  CL2 o2
10 1rec  CL1 o1
11 1def  CL2 o2
10 1rec  CL1 o1
9 1rec  CL3 o1
8 1rec  CL1 o1
7 1rec  CL1 o1
6 1rec  CL2 o1
5 1rec  CL1 o1
5 1neut  CL3 o3
4 1rec  CL2 o1
3 1rec  CL3 o1
2 1rec  CL1 o1
3 1def  CL2 o2
2 1rec  CL1 o1
1 1rec  CL1 o1
2 1def  CL2 o2
2 1neut  CL3 o3
3 1def  CL2 o2
3 1neut  CL3 o3
2 1rec  CL2 o1
1 1rec  CL3 o1
2 1def  CL2 o2
1 1rec  CL2 o1
2 1def  CL2 o2
2 1neut  CL3 o3
1 1rec  CL1 o1
CL 13 24 10 o 25 17 5 OPT 13 7 17 5 0 5 retrack

10 1def  CL2 o2
9 1rec  CL1 o1
10 1def  CL2 o2
9 1rec  CL1 o1
8 1rec  CL2 o1
7 1rec  CL1 o1
6 1rec  CL1 o1
5 1rec  CL1 o1
4 1rec  CL1 o1
3 1rec  CL1 o1
2 1rec  CL1 o1
3 1def  CL3 o2
2 1rec  CL1 o1
3 1def  CL2 o2
2 1rec  CL2 o1
1 1rec  CL2 o1
CL 9 6 1 o 12 4 0 OPT 9 3 3 0 1 0 retrack

10 1def  CL2 o2
11 1def  CL2 o2
10 1rec  CL1 o1
9 1rec  CL1 o1
8 1rec  CL1 o1
9 1def  CL2 o2
10 1def  CL3 o2
9 1rec  CL1 o1
8 1rec  CL1 o1
7 1rec  CL1 o1
6 1rec  CL2 o1
7 1def  CL2 o2
8 1def  CL2 o2
7 1rec  CL2 o1
6 1rec  CL1 o1
7 1def  CL2 o2
6 1rec  CL1 o1
5 1rec  CL1 o1
4 1rec  CL2 o1
3 1rec  CL1 o1
2 1rec  CL3 o1
1 1rec  CL2 o1
CL 10 10 2 o 15 7 0 OPT 10 4 6 1 1 0 retrack

Order 1 = defined by same
Order 2 or 3 = different

[RayManZ]

So a OR2 / OR3 = -1
A OR1 = +1

Now look back at your stuff. We don't even hit a -10... I see a max -5. And it catches up very quickly.

Do you even understand what i mean?

[falkor2k15]

Sorry, my test was order 1 vs. order 2. I will do order 1 vs. order 2/3 next and see if it makes any difference. I will post results in a few days.

[RayManZ]

Could you explain this:

10 1def  CL2 o2
9 1rec  CL2 o1
8 1rec  CL1 o1
9 1def  CL2 o2
10 1def  CL2 o2

first number is the virtual bet? shouldn't it be:

1def  CL2 o2 loss -> 9
1rec  CL2 o1 win -> 10
1rec  CL1 o1 win -> 11 reset to 10.
1def  CL2 o2 loss -> 9
1def  CL2 o2 loss -> 8

ect...

Maybe i don't understand your data.

[falkor2k15]

Yeah - could do with swapping around the columns. The cycle result is responsible for Order 1 either:
def = incur deficit, i.e. move out a distance of 1
neut = same distance as last cycle, i.e. no movement
rec = gap recovered/closed by a distance of 1 inwards

Above was simulated real betting after waiting for -10 virtual. And since the stats are the same as waiting for any other deficit before beginning betting then we can assume the profits will break even as well (or lose to house edge). However, the test was not using order 1 (same) to fight order 2 and 3 together as different. It was just order 1 vs. order 2. If Order 3 came then the result was "neutral" instead of different or -1. My bad - since test is not exactly the same as what Priyanka suggested.

Hopefully, I will be able to get results for same and different proper tonight. We can then settle this once and for all as I'm keen to move away from this area. I just need to modify my sim.

[falkor2k15]

Below is how the new simulator is looking...

Here we pick up a game @ Cycle 45, where the virtual deficit for DIFFERENT has reached -10, so we could effectively begin betting here.

-10 means that the running totals for DIFFERENT - SAME = 10.

Each win brings us closer to cancelling out that deficit till we get to 0 for full recovery where SAME > DIFFERENT.

NOTE: these cycles are NOT quick to recover even though there is a size-able gap/deficit. Stats are still to be determined - but SAME still looks independent of DIFFERENT:

45 CL2 o2 1def  10
46 CL1 o1 1rec  9
47 CL1 o1 1rec  8
48 CL3 o2 1def  9
49 CL1 o1 1rec  8
50 CL3 o2 1def  9
51 CL2 o1 1rec  8
52 CL3 o1 1rec  7
53 CL3 o1 1rec  6
54 CL3 o2 1def  7
55 CL2 o2 1def  8
56 CL1 o1 1rec  7
57 CL3 o2 1def  8
58 CL2 o2 1def  9
59 CL1 o1 1rec  8
60 CL1 o1 1rec  7
61 CL3 o2 1def  8
62 CL1 o1 1rec  7
63 CL2 o2 1def  8
64 CL1 o1 1rec  7
65 CL2 o2 1def  8
66 CL2 o1 1rec  7
67 CL2 o1 1rec  6
68 CL3 o3 1def  7
69 CL1 o1 1rec  6
70 CL1 o1 1rec  5
71 CL1 o1 1rec  4
72 CL3 o2 1def  5
73 CL3 o1 1rec  4
74 CL2 o1 1rec  3
75 CL1 o1 1rec  2
76 CL2 o1 1rec  1
77 CL2 o2 1def  2
78 CL2 o1 1rec  1
79 CL1 o1 1rec  0
CL 12 12 10 o 21 12 1 OPT 12 6 6 3 6 1 retrack

Here a game went on for 23 cycles before it reached a deficit of 10:

23 CL2 o2 1def  10
24 CL2 o1 1rec  9
25 CL1 o1 1rec  8
26 CL3 o1 1rec  7
27 CL2 o2 1def  8
28 CL2 o2 1def  9
29 CL3 o1 1rec  8
30 CL3 o1 1rec  7
31 CL1 o1 1rec  6
32 CL1 o1 1rec  5
33 CL1 o1 1rec  4
34 CL1 o1 1rec  3
35 CL3 o3 1def  4
36 CL3 o2 1def  5
37 CL2 o2 1def  6
38 CL2 o2 1def  7
39 CL1 o1 1rec  6
40 CL2 o1 1rec  5
41 CL2 o2 1def  6
42 CL1 o1 1rec  5
43 CL2 o2 1def  6
44 CL1 o1 1rec  5
45 CL3 o3 1def  6
46 CL1 o1 1rec  5
47 CL2 o2 1def  6
48 CL2 o1 1rec  5
49 CL3 o1 1rec  4
50 CL2 o1 1rec  3
51 CL1 o1 1rec  2
52 CL2 o2 1def  3
53 CL2 o2 1def  4
54 CL1 o1 1rec  3
55 CL2 o1 1rec  2
56 CL3 o1 1rec  1
57 CL3 o1 1rec  0
CL 11 15 8 o 21 11 2 OPT 11 5 10 5 1 2 retrack

Here it took 61 cycles to get to -10 (then goes further out @ -11!)

61 CL2 o2 1def  10
62 CL2 o2 1def  11
63 CL1 o1 1rec  10
64 CL2 o1 1rec  9
65 CL3 o2 1def  10
66 CL1 o1 1rec  9
67 CL2 o1 1rec  8
68 CL3 o3 1def  9
69 CL1 o1 1rec  8
70 CL1 o1 1rec  7
71 CL2 o1 1rec  6
72 CL2 o2 1def  7
73 CL1 o1 1rec  6
74 CL1 o1 1rec  5
75 CL1 o1 1rec  4
76 CL2 o2 1def  5
77 CL1 o1 1rec  4
78 CL2 o2 1def  5
79 CL3 o1 1rec  4
80 CL1 o1 1rec  3
81 CL1 o1 1rec  2
82 CL3 o2 1def  3
83 CL2 o2 1def  4
84 CL2 o1 1rec  3
85 CL1 o1 1rec  2
86 CL2 o1 1rec  1
87 CL2 o2 1def  2
88 CL1 o1 1rec  1
89 CL2 o1 1rec  0
CL 12 12 4 o 18 9 1 OPT 12 5 7 1 2 1 retrack

[Herby]

{{{3, 1, 2, 3}, 6438}, {{2, 3, 1, 1}, 6452}, {{2, 3, 1, 3}, 6470},
{{1, 3, 2, 3}, 6473}, {{3, 2, 1, 2}, 6479}, {{1, 2, 3, 2}, 6483},
{{3, 1, 2, 2}, 6492}, {{2, 1, 3, 1}, 6507}, {{3, 2, 1, 1}, 6537},
{{2, 3, 1, 2}, 6539}, {{1, 2, 3, 3}, 6541}, {{1, 3, 2, 2}, 6541},
{{1, 2, 3, 1}, 6547}, {{3, 1, 2, 1}, 6559}, {{3, 2, 1, 3},6566},
{{1, 3, 2, 1}, 6672}, {{2, 1, 3, 3}, 6674}, {{2, 1, 3, 2}, 6682},

{{1, 3, 3}, 19365}, {{1, 2, 1}, 19417}, {{3, 1, 1}, 19495},
{{3, 2, 2}, 19513}, {{2, 1, 2}, 19518}, {{2, 3, 3}, 19552},
{{2, 1, 1}, 19598}, {{3, 1, 3}, 19628}, {{1, 3, 1}, 19643},
{{1, 2, 2}, 19744}, {{2, 3, 2}, 19744}, {{3, 2, 3}, 19922},

{{3, 3}, 58662}, {{1, 1}, 58825}, {{2, 2}, 59278}};