It's not fallacy!

[Andre Chass]

Why wouldn't a series have an increasingly lower probability of extending than a single event has of happening once?

Obviously, each unique spin has a probability of 50% (academically, by excluding the greens) for either color.

However, the overall proportion of total reds vs blacks should be 50%. So every time another of the same color is added to the group, the probability of the group/sample containing ONLY that one color decreases. Is there really a 50% probability that a sample size of 100 (e.g.) will contain 100 reds or blacks? When a person gambles on the roulette spin, he may be betting FOR a single spin, or AGAINST a series.

Isn't saying that the wheel has no memory like saying the wheel hasn't had a haircut in (x) weeks? A gambler isn't betting on the wheel, he's betting on the statistics. Past data would appear to be relevant due to the sampling.

[Andre Chass]

I'm using this alternative star system and doing pretty well... But I know the day will come...

The Star progression looks good. However in reality it's not a very deep progression and you will find yourself in recovery a lot.

1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7,9,12,16,22,29,39,52,69,92,123.

That's 18 steps.

You are parlaying these steps and looking for a double win before you revert back to the 1st step.

1=4 +3
1=4 +2
2=8 +4
2=8 +2
3=12 +3
4=16 +3
5=20 +2
7=28 +3
9=36 +2
12=48 +2
16=64 +2
22=88 +4
29=116 +3
39=156 +4
52=208 +4
69=276 +3
92=368 +3
123=492 +4

BANKROLL = 488.

Even 18 steps is not enough to be safe looking for a double win. You need DOUBLE that.

Take the 4 different e.c's.

RR RB BB BR,  OO OE EE EO,  LL LH HH HL.

The longest I have seen one of these pairs go missing over the last few years is 32. So that's 64 spins because each of these groups comprises of two spins.

So even using the Rambler, you would need to wait for 14 (28 spins) times to see one of these groups not appear and then attack it knowing that you can only lose your 488 unit bankroll if the group eventually goes missing for a grand total of 32 times (64 spins)

That will be hard to break but the day will come for sure. But it just shows you what you are up against. Plans like the original Star are not deep enough to keep you out of trouble for very long.

[MoneyT101]

hmmmm... the reason you cant go by those stats in the game of roulette is because the numbers reset on the next spin.  so its like the wheel is starting fresh and the data from before doesnt matter.

now im not saying you cant use or create information where you can track stats.  What i am saying is regular red/black will not get you anywhere

Create different stats that are more controllable based on the data with less variance.

[MoneyT101]

I'm using this alternative star system and doing pretty well... But I know the day will come...

The Star progression looks good. However in reality it's not a very deep progression and you will find yourself in recovery a lot.

1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7,9,12,16,22,29,39,52,69,92,123.

That's 18 steps.

You are parlaying these steps and looking for a double win before you revert back to the 1st step.

1=4 +3
1=4 +2
2=8 +4
2=8 +2
3=12 +3
4=16 +3
5=20 +2
7=28 +3
9=36 +2
12=48 +2
16=64 +2
22=88 +4
29=116 +3
39=156 +4
52=208 +4
69=276 +3
92=368 +3
123=492 +4

BANKROLL = 488.

Even 18 steps is not enough to be safe looking for a double win. You need DOUBLE that.

Take the 4 different e.c's.

RR RB BB BR,  OO OE EE EO,  LL LH HH HL.

The longest I have seen one of these pairs go missing over the last few years is 32. So that's 64 spins because each of these groups comprises of two spins.

So even using the Rambler, you would need to wait for 14 (28 spins) times to see one of these groups not appear and then attack it knowing that you can only lose your 488 unit bankroll if the group eventually goes missing for a grand total of 32 times (64 spins)

That will be hard to break but the day will come for sure. But it just shows you what you are up against. Plans like the original Star are not deep enough to keep you out of trouble for very long.

I posted a good method in which the variance is not so crazy using double EC.  Also praline posted a method using double EC also.  We both tracked it using cycles.  Maybe it can ive you some new ideas on how to look at the info.

[Andre Chass]

hmmmm... the reason you cant go by those stats in the game of roulette is because the numbers reset on the next spin.  so its like the wheel is starting fresh and the data from before doesnt matter.

now im not saying you cant use or create information where you can track stats.  What i am saying is regular red/black will not get you anywhere

Create different stats that are more controllable based on the data with less variance.

Let's say you would bet 1.000,00. Would you choose to bet that the black color would appear in just one spin or would you choose to bet that the black color would appear whitin ten spins?

[Andre Chass]

For example, the chances of the black color hit in a sequence of ten spins are higher than in just one spin.

[MoneyT101]

For example, the chances of the black color hit in a sequence of ten spins are higher than in just one spin.

Definitely that it would show up within 10 spins.  But the issue is countless times it can go missing.  Im not saying its not possible to create a method with good money management that can help take advantage of that.

What i can tell you is that many ppl have tried and failed.  If you play or tested enough roulette you would know its relentless.  Matter of fact the game makes you believe you can beat and BOOM, brings you back to reality.

[Andre Chass]

Using the variant star system:
Bankroll: 500 units
Four days attacking the spin for about three hours
Earnings: 254 units

Note: I played on several roulettes always betting at the right time waiting for several spins before going to the attack.

One of the secrets we already know is to have a good money management.

[Andre Chass]

Sorry, actually the winnings were $254 and not units. Always betting 5$.

[Andre Chass]

I posted a good method in which the variance is not so crazy using double EC.  Also praline posted a method using double EC also.  We both tracked it using cycles.  Maybe it can ive you some new ideas on how to look at the info.

Could you post your method so I can take a look and give a try?

Thanks in advance!

[Taotie]

One of the secrets we already know is to have a good money management.

What, like putting every cent you've got on black, for one spin?

[Andre Chass]

What, like putting every cent you've got on black, for one spin?

Lol... But sometimes in life is all or nothing...
We got got, we got nothing to lose!