How to play and win with VdW (from "Random Thoughts")

[winkel]

I had to read so much rubbish about the VdW.

In this and other forums are such a lot of members who claim to be intelligent and mathguys but not one of them did really think about and analyse this way to bet.

1) If we look at the distribution of two colours (R and B or H/L, or E/O) we will get 256 Variations. We can easily reduce this number:
We name the first colour to appear  "1" , the other then obviously "2"
If it starts by: RRB we would note 1 1 2
If it starts by: BBR we would also note 1 1 2
So have just half of 256 variations.

2) If we check how many AP will end at which coup we get the following:
Coup 3: 1
Coup 4: 1
Coup 5: 2
Coup 6: 2
Coup 7: 3
Coup 8: 3
Coup 9: 4

Up to Coup #6 there is only 1 decision possible. From Coup #7 there might be two possible decisions to make.

3) the hitrates:
Coup #3: 24,89%
Coup #4: 12,57%
Coup #5: 18,75%
Coup #6: 12,50%

That makes a total of 68,71% hitrate with only 1 decision to make.

did anyone look at VdW like this? I don´t think so, nor read about.

[RayManZ]

Or... Maybe you just spilled the beans?

[cht]

If anybody who's to gain from RT it has to be who else........ Prof winkel.  I was waiting for him to post again on this topic and he does. Prof winkel is da man people.

I can understand why RayManZ asked this question that's related to ProfW % above, did Priyanka explained how those numbers were derived or they're just numbers plucked from the sky intentionally thrown on the board without validation ?

No not looking for pattern ect. Stop that! That does not work...

I want to know how priyanka got these stats for all the AP's.

W â€" 256 times
L â€" 48 times
LW â€" 104 times
LL â€" 32 times
LLW â€" 36 times
LLL â€" 16 times
LLLW â€" 10 times
LLLL â€" 10 times

[stringbeanpc]

winkel, I am glad you mention this topic.

I thought of another way to win and would appreciate your thoughts.

An even chance can either be single or series.


If singles are appearing, then it is choppy like

R B R B R B R B R

In this case you would spin on Spin # 5


If series and singles are appearing then it could look like this

R R B B R R B B x  - where x is a deadlock (could be either R or B)


If we just played the Latest Series to appear we would win in 404 of the 512 possibilities ( 78.9 %).

I had written a basic program to generate each of these 512 combinations, which I how I obtained this statistic.

[falkor2k15]

I refer to RayManZ's quote as the "VdW Deception":

Since Priyanka has been found to be partly a fraud in terms of regurgitating Reddwarf's useful information about Non-Random methods - but at the same time turning them back into Random games for use with fallacious Variance Avoidance techniques - could she have also deliberately (or delusionally) misled us again with her first example on VdW?

Here, Priyanka essentially suggested playing VdW as Cycles - stopping at the first AP - aligning all bets (static) to that event. This resulted in a Win-Lose chart:
W â€" 256 times
L â€" 48 times
LW â€" 104 times
LL â€" 32 times
LLW â€" 36 times
LLL â€" 16 times
LLLW â€" 10 times
LLLL â€" 10 times
link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15938.15 (page 2)

From only this chart she literally claimed a solution was staring us in the face! And from what I can gather - without explicitly quoting all her subsequent references - she was hinting that we reduce apples or pears by using another Variance Avoidance technique! Surprise, surprise.

In hindsight and with greater wisdom acquired since that time, I'm pretty sure that a VdW solution would take a completely different form. To understand just how bizarre the above decoy happened to be in terms of introducing a powerful Non-Random method, but at the same time presenting it in terms of a false dichotomy, we only need consider doing the same thing to Dozen Cycles: meaning we play all CL1s and CL2s, ignoring deadlocked CL3s; and based on the resulting Win-Lose chart, we would be forced to repeat the Variance Avoidance path - almost in the same vein as the aforementioned defining element fraud. Again, that's NOT how Cycles should be played - and is NOT how VdW should be played.

[winkel]

So I see, you all are stuck in the explanations of priyanka and you didn´t understand the math of VdW.
You didn´t understand my initial post and didn´t think about.
It seems that you are not able to follow further explanations of my idea.

by then.

[wiggy]

That's right! We are all stupid and bow down to your superior intelligence.

[praline]

So have just half of 256 variations.

If we remove all combinations starting with 2's
We will have 256, a half from 512. Right?
By "coup" you mean sequence of n 1/2?

[Nickmsi]

Hi Winkel,

Always enjoy your posts as they usually show some critical thinking.

I too have also done similar research using the % Hit Rate and the first 6 Spins of a 9 Spin cycle.

I also showed a hitrate % of about 68% for the first 6 spins.

My original thinking was that I had the HG. A 68% win rate by playing the first 6 spins of the cycle.

However, further testing showed that I failed to take into consideration the fact that you could win on the 6th coup but you may have already lost on the 3rd coup.  The hitrate % while accurate for each individual coup does not take into account previous losses.

For example, you could start the cycle with BB and on 3rd coup you would bet B.

If the result was a R, you would then have BBR.

On 4th coup no bet, another B is spun so we now have BBRB.

On 5th coup no bet another B is spun so we now have BBRBB

So on 6th coup we would bet B. If you won on this coup it would generate the 12.5% hit rate but we would have broke even as we had a loss on the 3rd coup.

Unfortunately, my testing  did not get the 68% hit rate by playing only the first 6 coups.

Cheers
Nick

[Herby]

{{{3, 1, F}, 64}, {{3, 1, T}, 64},
{{4, 1, F}, 32}, {{4, 1, T}, 32}, {{4, 2, F}, 32}, {{4, 2, T}, 32},
{{5, 1, F}, 64}, {{5, 1, T}, 64}, {{5, 2, F}, 32}, {{5, 2, T}, 32},
{{6, 1, F}, 48}, {{6, 1, T}, 48}, {{6, 2, F}, 48}, {{6, 2, T}, 48},
{{7, 1, F}, 88}, {{7, 1, T}, 88}, {{7, 2, F}, 48}, {{7, 2, T}, 48},
{{8, 1, F}, 68}, {{8, 1, T}, 68}, {{8, 2, F}, 68}, {{8, 2, T}, 68},
{{9, 1, F}, 92}, {{9, 1, T}, 92}, {{9, 2, F}, 68}, {{9, 2, T}, 68}}

F ... False ... Negativ Hit = Loose
T... True .... Positive = Win

[winkel]

If we remove all combinations starting with 2's
We will have 256, a half from 512. Right?
By "coup" you mean sequence of n 1/2?

coup means spin

[winkel]

Hi Winkel,
I also showed a hitrate % of about 68% for the first 6 spins.
...
However, further testing showed that I failed to take into consideration the fact that you could win on the 6th coup but you may have already lost on the 3rd coup.  The hitrate % while accurate for each individual coup does not take into account previous losses.
...

Cheers
Nick

Hi nick,

That is just a fact but the mistake is somewhere else.

If we have a row of

RRR RRR RRR
Most of you will only bet
- either the third R and then wait for the next cluster of 9
- either the third, then the 6th then the 9th bet.

If you have such a row of 9 indentical Colours you also have all possible 16 APs in it. But we usually don´t or can´t bet them.

Try this way: RR bet R and you have RRR
now cut off the first R: RRR and now you have the next trigger to bet R again.
At this row of 9 R you will win 3rd, 4th, 5th. 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th bet. total of 7 wins!

Do the same after any win or loss. We need always 2 spins without any bet.
Example: RRB - stop selecting and restart with RB
next RB new spin B makes RBB , so bet B
next RBBB and win and cut off first two spins
You got: BB so bet B

and so on

[atlantis]

That could work quite good - roulette being a 'streaky' game most times.


A.

[Nickmsi]

Thanks Winkel.  I agree that is one of the better ways to play with VDW.

As you and Atlantis point out, it takes advantage of the streakiness of random.

For those of you who wish to see this in action, I have attached an Excel Tracker.

Every spin, the tracker looks at the last 9 spins to see if an AP can be formed.  The math is the same whether you look at the last 9 spins or the next 9 spins.

Enjoy

Nick

[winkel]

Thanks Winkel.  I agree that is one of the better ways to play with VDW.
...
Every spin, the tracker looks at the last 9 spins to see if an AP can be formed.  The math is the same whether you look at the last 9 spins or the next 9 spins.

Enjoy

Nick

I reduced to 6 spins to avoid the double decisions.