How to play and win with VdW (from "Random Thoughts")

[RouletteGhost]

......

[atlantis]

Safest mode? Wait until 1111, start betting on the 5th spin, then. Go for the early win and STOP. LOL
111 11 - 1W
111 121 - 1L
111 21 - 1W     
111 122 - 1L

Unfortunately with stop at a win - 2 can win or 2 can lose. There is no advantage here.

[Nickmsi]

Hi Psimoes,

Thanks for clearing up how you got your results.

Will check further.

Cheers

Nick

[psimoes]

Hello Psimoes,

I checked your first 8 patterns starting with 111 and my results differ from yours for the following 3.

111-122  2W  2L Bet on 3rd spin for 1-2-3 AP and WIN. Bet on the 4th for 2-3-4 and WIN. Bet on the 5th for 3-4-5 (or 1-3-5) and LOSE. Bet on the 6th spin for 2-4-6 and LOSE.
111-221  1 W 3 L 3rd 1-2-3 W. 4th 2-3-4 L. 5th 1-3-5 L. 6th 4-5-6 L.
111-221  2 W 2 L

I am not sure if you were using any stop losses or not? No stop loss: always 6 spin cycles. If there are no more APs to form, then NO BET.

Cheers

Nick

[psimoes]

[/quote]

Safest mode? Wait until 1111, start betting on the 5th spin, then. Go for the early win and STOP. LOL
111 11 - 1W
111 121 - 1L
111 21 - 1W     
111 122 - 1L

Unfortunately with stop at a win - 2 can win or 2 can lose. There is no advantage here.

Sorry, second possible outcome should be 111 121 - 1L 1W. bet 3-4-5 L, bet 2-4-6 W. So it´s 2 wins, one break even, one loss.

[psimoes]

NickMSI you´re right. Looks like the LW for now is 39W vs. 36L. I´m suspecting the final result will be 50/50. Almost fell for it 

[atlantis]

111 11 - 1W  (3-4-5 or 1-3-5) *stop
111 121 - 1L (1-3-5 or 3-4-5) ; 1W (2-4-6) *stop
111 21 -  1W (1-3-5) *stop     
111 122 - 1L (1-3-5 or 3-4-5) ; 1L (2-4-6) *stop?

Hi Psimoes - is this not it? 3w - 3L

A.

[psimoes]

111 11 - 1W  (3-4-5 or 1-3-5) *stop
111 121 - 1L (1-3-5 or 3-4-5) ; 1W (2-4-6) *stop
111 21 -  1W (1-3-5) *stop     
111 122 - 1L (1-3-5 or 3-4-5) ; 1L (2-4-6) *stop?

Hi Psimoes - is this not it?

A.

Hi Atlantis you´re right. 50/50 chance. (Gonna kill myself LOL )

[psimoes]

Unless Winkel has another card to play, the 1 2 instead of RB/BR doesn´t seem to give any real advantage here, it just simplifies the calcs. BUSTED

[psimoes]

Quote
111 111 - 3W - checked
111 112 - 2W 1L - checked
111 121 - 2W 1L - checked
111 211 - 1W 1L - checked   
111 122 - 1W 2L - wins 2-3-4, loses 3-4-5 and 2-4-6
111 212 - 1W 1L - checked
111 221 - 2L - loses 2-3-4 and 4-5-6
111 222 - 1W 1L - checked

Safe mode? Wait until 111, start betting on the 4th spin, then...

Seems better. However, you are not guaranteed to win - can still lose with the 7th pattern:
111 221 - 1L

A.

Revised. In the long run all these outcomes should appear the same number of times (in theory). If each and every time they are played as above, isn´t there an advantage? 11 WINS against 9 LOSSES! It´s the point of this thread...

[psimoes]

There´s a pattern here which I think could totally discard the vdW and the waiting: What if 1 just means you picked a colour to bet and won, and 2 means that colour you picked just lost? LW registry. We should then also discard the first 111 since they´re common to all outcomes (they´re all past spins anyway, virtual or not, so let´s get rid of them, right?) and just bet for three spins maximum.

So, if 1 means R:

(111) 111 - 3W - RRR - WWW
(111) 112 - 2W 1L   RRB WWL
(111) 121 - 2W 1L - RBR - Won on first R, lost on second, keep betting R and Win. - WLW
(discarded) 211 - 1W 1L - BRR - Lost first R, switch colours, bet B, and W. Wait for end of cycle with No Bets. - LW
122 - 1W 2L - RBR - Won on first R, lost on second, kept same colour and lost on third. - WLL
212 - 1W 1L - Lost on first R, switch colours and bet B and Win, Wait for cycle to finish and don´t bet. - Same as fourth outcome.  - Not relevant.
221 - 2L - Lost on first, switch and lost again. NMB till end of cycle. - LL
222 - 2 L - Don´t bother - Same as above. Not relevant.

For the last two outcomes, if LL you decide if you keep betting or not, of course, but two losses in a row should be enough to advise to stop betting and wait until the cycle finishes.

So, pick a colour and bet on it. If you win, bet same colour. Won again? Bet same and stop. Next cycle of three, pick any colour you want and restart.
Lost the first bet? Bet the other colour instead. Won? You just broke even and will not bet for the next and final spin of the cycle of three.
Lost the second bet as well? Tough luck. No more bets, skip that last spin.
Restart.

Playing as above achieves 9 WINS against 7 LOSSES. I think, someone please verify.

[atlantis]

Revised. In the long run all these outcomes should appear the same number of times (in theory). If each and every time they are played as above, isn´t there an advantage? 11 WINS against 9 LOSSES! It´s the point of this thread...

111 111 - 3W 0L - wins 2-3-4; 1-3-5 or 3-4-5 ; 4-5-6
111 112 - 2W 1L - wins 2-3-4; 1-3-5; loses 2-4-6 or 4-5-6
111 121 - 2W 1L - wins 2-3-4; loses 1-3-5; wins 2-4-6
111 211 - 1L 1W - loses 2-3-4; wins 1-3-5   
111 122 - 1W 2L - wins 2-3-4, loses 3-4-5 and 2-4-6
111 212 - 1L 1W - loses 2-3-4
111 221 - 1L 1L - loses 2-3-4 and 4-5-6
111 222 - 1L 1L  1W - loses 2-3-4 and 1-3-5; wins 4-5-6

So there are 4 occasions where you will start with a W
and 4 occasions where you will start with an L......

10w -10L

No advantage!?

A.

[RouletteGhost]

I mean if 10w 10l was the norm we can use progression

[psimoes]

(111) 111 - 3W - RRR - WWW
(111) 112 - 2W 1L   RRB WWL
(111) 121 - 2W 1L - RBR - Won on first R, lost on second, keep betting R and Win. - WLW - Skip the third bet. - WL - That´s it.
(discarded) 211 - 1W 1L - BRR - Lost first R, switch colours, bet B, and W. Wait for end of cycle with No Bets. - LW
122 - 1W 2L - RBR - Won on first R, lost on second, kept same colour and lost on third. - WLL - Skip the third bet. - Same as third outcome. Not relevant.
212 - 1W 1L - Lost on first R, switch colours and bet B and Win, Wait for cycle to finish and don´t bet. - Same as fourth outcome.  - Not relevant.
221 - 2L - Lost on first, switch and lost again. NMB till end of cycle. - LL
222 - 2 L - Don´t bother - Same as above. Not relevant.

At least two more outcomes appear scratcheable. The third, 121, and the fifth, 122 - On the third spin you either win or lose, so don´t make that third bet. Win the first, lose the second, skip the third. It´s break even for that cycle.

Net count: 7 WINS against 5 LOSSES. As the number of wins vs. losses gets reduced but the difference of 2 is maintained, the advantage gets relatively bigger. 7W vs 5L has a higher edge than 9 vs 7 and more so than 11 vs 9!

[atlantis]

111 111 - 3W 0L - wins 2-3-4; 1-3-5 or 3-4-5 ; 4-5-6
111 112 - 2W 1L - wins 2-3-4; 1-3-5; loses 2-4-6 or 4-5-6
111 121 - 2W 1L - wins 2-3-4; loses 1-3-5; wins 2-4-6
111 211 - 1L 1W - loses 2-3-4; wins 1-3-5   
111 122 - 1W 2L - wins 2-3-4, loses 3-4-5 and 2-4-6
111 212 - 1L 1W - loses 2-3-4; wins 1-3-5
111 221 - 2L - loses 2-3-4 and 4-5-6
111 222 - 2L  1W - loses 2-3-4 and 1-3-5; wins 4-5-6

So there are 4 occasions where you will start with a W
and 4 occasions where you will start with an L......

11w - 9L

A.

I think I make a mistake?  Seems should  be 11w ;9L.....