Hot and Cold Numbers Fallacy

[Andre Chass]

Triggers can work if you exploit a rare event, using statistics and evaluating the data.
For example, I know that zero hit four times in a row is a very rare event and I can use this data as a trigger.

[Roulettebeater]

But I could stay 24 hours a day, 7 days a week without leaving the casino.

Well, you can't, unless you hire few players to do the work with you 

[celescliff]

Triggers can work if you exploit a rare event, using statistics and evaluating the data.
For example, I know that zero hit four times in a row is a very rare event and I can use this data as a trigger.

So 11, 35, 17 and 3 comes up in four spins. Why don't you use that as a trigger? That event is exactly as rare as seeing one number four times in a row.

If you make a simulation that takes four random number and run how many times this event comes, then make a simulation where you take one number and see how many times they come in one million spins, what do you think the result would be?

[Andre Chass]

"Most of the time people try to sabotage a method or strategy stating its a failure. Don't get dragged into it."

Test your strategy thousands of times, again, again and again, and get your own conclusions.

[celescliff]

You call yourself a professional player and yet you don't understand basic probability.

Whatever amount you bet on that ultimate trigger will make no difference in long term with the system of yours. You will lose it all and more.

I hope people dont pay to much attention to you.

Good luck with your triggers.

[Andre Chass]

Ohh, you got me. I'm a scammer, I confess. I'm a stupid and innocent 47 years old guy.

Profit $23.600
Losses $2.400
Real money

Swallow it!

You're just another TG toady.
Go play your crap f**** hot numbers system.
Cmon, who are you to judge my strategy? I think you're just another poor loser with no money to bet.

[Roulettebeater]

Ohh, you got me. I'm a scammer, I confess. I'm a stupid and innocent 47 years old guy.

Profit $23.600
Losses $2.400
Real money

Swallow it!

You're just another TG toady.
Go play your crap f**** hot numbers system.
Cmon, who are you to judge my strategy? I think you're just another poor loser with no money to bet.

Good job but have you ever tried to withdraw that money?
you might be surprised!

[Andre Chass]

Good job but have you ever tried to withdraw that money?
you might be surprised!

Yes, I do it regularly.

Thanks

[falkor2k15]

The best way to sum up the logic behind these facts is by saying that the roulette ball has no memory.
However this fact does not stop from insisting on betting on cold numbers which haven’t hit for a while or hot numbers which have accidentally happen few times in the row. The thought process behind this is that since this number hasn’t hit lately. The cold number is more likely to hit on future spins or if the number has been hit few times in the row the hot roulette wheel has a memory and will pick the hot number again.
This, of course, is a fallacy, as it could be a very long time before these cold or hot numbers hit, just as they could conceivably hit 10 of the next 30 spins. You could be broke long before any of these cold or hot numbers finally get around to being the winning number. Even the best bankroll management technique will not save you from losing all your money if you believe in this roulette myth.

I used to think it was a fallacy too, but after 2 years I found out something about long term and short term:
Short term: hot is more prevalent, hence 37 spins is never 37 unique numbers - most numbers would have repeated once or more.
Long term: cold is more prevalent in terms of playing catch-up due to the law of large numbers

For example let's say dozen 1 appears once, dozen 1 then has more chance of reaching 4 repeats instead of 3 repeats compared to dozen 2 and 3. Also, it has more chance of being in the lead after, say, 4 spins compared to the other dozens. If dozen 1 comes two times in a row then it has even more chance of getting to 3 repeats compared to the rest and can run a longer race and still be in the lead when given such a booster.

Now here's a bombshell: Let's say dozens 2 and 3 team up to form the 66% team against dozen 1. If dozen 1 appears 2 times in a row, it can still beat the 66% team even at 4,5,6... possibly even at the 10 repeat mark or 10 spin mark!

[denzie]

You're just another TG toady.

TG kicks you and your retarted system any day of the week. What makes you a pro all of a sudden? Your a joke. Enjoy your trigger while it lasts 
The roocky gonna teach us? Yeah right

[denzie]

Ohh, you got me. I confess. I'm a stupid 47 years old guy.

Swallow it!

Bingooooo 

[DoctorSudoku]

Ohh, you got me. I'm a scammer, I confess. I'm a stupid and innocent 47 years old guy.

Profit $23.600
Losses $2.400
Real money

Swallow it!

Andre,
Just ignore all these doubters and naysayers.

Let them try to put you down by making all sorts of sarcastic and snide remarks -- you just keep doing what you are doing.

As long as this method makes your bank roll grow, stick with it.

That's all that matters.

And if you are really into getting more respect from the fellow members of this forum, ask Steve to change your username from
Andre Chass to something, like, say, DynamoGenius.

Or some other similar name -- just make sure that the word, "Genius" is part of your new username.  Many people seem to fall for it (as you very well know from being a member of this forum).

[celescliff]

Andre,
Just ignore all these doubters and naysayers.

Let them try to put you down by making all sorts of sarcastic and snide remarks -- you just keep doing what you are doing.

As long as this method makes your bank roll grow, stick with it.

That's all that matters.

And if you are really into getting more respect from the fellow members of this forum, ask Steve to change your username from
Andre Chass to something, like, say, DynamoGenius.

Or some other similar name -- just make sure that the word, "Genius" is part of your new username.  Many people seem to fall for it (as you very well know from being a member of this forum).

You make it sound like we have something against him just because his bet selection is crap. When I say he's going to lose the money sooner or later, it doesen't mean I don't want him to lose the money, but to save it because the way he plays have already been tested and does not work. I know that without knowing the details of his system. Anyone can make that kind of money when gambling.

I don't understand why you people don't take the time to read more from people that have more experience then you and make some reasearch. The effect of that is that this forum mostly discuss the same thing year after year that has already been tested to death. It's an endless cycle.

Personally, I played in the beginning EC, dozens, columns and corners like everyone else, but thankfully I didn't loose alot of money because I read what others have done in the past and I also code the ideas I had and have for long term simulations.

I respect TG and some others at GF, because I accept the fact that they know more about this game and have more experince about casino life then I do.

If people that are going to spend alot of time on this game at least can use some of the time to look at other directions that goes against their beliefs, then maybe this forum will not just involve outside bets that includes waiting and triggers like it has latley.

[DoctorSudoku]

but to save it because the way he plays have already been tested and does not work.

I understand that your experience has shown that Andre's methods do not work -- and hence your comment that you made above.

That's fine.

I do a lot of paper testing with my collection of over 5,000 airball and dealer spins (that I have collected from various US casinos since early 2014) -- in fact, it is a mini-hobby of mine.

My testing has shown that Turbo's hot number method ALSO does NOT work on a consistent basis (it mostly loses and loses big).

[Andre Chass]

Andre,
Just ignore all these doubters and naysayers.

Let them try to put you down by making all sorts of sarcastic and snide remarks -- you just keep doing what you are doing.

As long as this method makes your bank roll grow, stick with it.

That's all that matters.

And if you are really into getting more respect from the fellow members of this forum, ask Steve to change your username from
Andre Chass to something, like, say, DynamoGenius.

Or some other similar name -- just make sure that the word, "Genius" is part of your new username.  Many people seem to fall for it (as you very well know from being a member of this forum).

Thanks for the support,, my friend!