PATTERN BREAKER test results

[Ross]

If you're looking at patterns (which I think is pointless)
why only look at the patterns of spins 1,2,3 and 4,5,6 etc.
What about the pattern of spins 2,3,4 and 3,4,5?

If betting 2,4,8 a win gives +2.
A loss gives - 14.

Therefore you have to win seven times out of eight
just to break even.

A 90% win rate in 100 games will only produce 40 units.

Not a very good risk/reward proposition.

[Ross]

Never was a maths expert but needing
7 wins out of eight means 87.5% wins
required to break even.


So 90% wins gives only +4 units.

[Ricky]

ohn Legend is always going on about patience and discipline, as though it's the most important part of any system. But a computer never runs out of patience and never makes mistakes, so it can't be that aspect of playing which is the problem with the simulation, can it?

Hi CoderJoe,
I am not sure what rules you have built into your simulation but if your just running with a straight progression 1-2-4 and not using the recovery processes discussed in the forum and continue to be debated concerning MM then your missing the point of why this method is ONE of MANY methods that are successful in beating the game of roulette or indeed any other E/C game.

So, what JL has been reinforcing in his rules and his results is what is the performance of the system over a 100 game set. Also, you need to look at your bankroll and only bet a certain percentage of it. So the larger your bankroll the higher your base bets. The smaller your bankroll the lower your base bets. You also need to be practical and build in stop losses into your algorithm. Your simulation needs to be smart enough to know when to go to that third progression and when to avoid it. This all can be programmed.

But to really simulate what people like JL and others are doing by playing sparingly on a day to day basis, you need to take the same number of spins recorded from a live wheel over a year or more and only play those 10 sessions per day, skipping the other 1000+ spins that are spun each day. This will get you close to simulating what a successful disciplined play experiences. Just allowing the computer to generate random numbers without taking into account real life situation is like allowing a flight simulator to generate unnatural weather events that will never be experienced by a pilot. In this situation the plane would definitely crash more often. So just like a flight simulator takes naturally occurring weather events into consideration when programming the software to train the pilots in a "Realistic" environment so should you take actual LIVE spins into account. This will simulate a ball being spun from the last number at certain speed and landing in the next pocket. Also, it will simulate the clockwise/anticlockwise events that take place for each spin. At B&M casinos with live dealers I have recently taken into consideration the dealer signature where the ball continuously lands for 5 or more spins in the same area of the wheel. I see SMART players taking advantage of this and even tipping the dealer to indicate to continue this pattern so they can take advantage and bet heavily on that area of 5 or six numbers winning 35:1 with hundred or euros on those numbers. A computer simulator randomly picking numbers in no way can simulate this.

So if you can repeat your tests with the above criteria in mind I am sure you might come close to simulating what players like JL are experiencing. I am sure he is not living on 105 dollars or euro over the last 5 years since he has been playing this full time. It must be more than maths that is allowing him to sustain a lifestyle and pay the bills.
If you take a player like Phil Ivy who made his fortune bluffing his way playing Poker you will understand that it takes more than luck to beat these games of chance. The system deployed is just one1-2% of the winning formula. MM and what's between your ears is 98-99% of the WINNING formula. The system is just the information. How you use this information is the key.

Both of these can be programmed. What you have programmed is the method of play. What you have not programmed is what you do during those 20,000 events to make a losing situation into a profitable one. If your simulator is just blindly following rules without taking into consideration at least your bankroll then your simulator is just simulating the 98% of gamblers that do not know how to use the information in front of them and they should not be playing the game for profit.

Cheers,
Ricky

[Joe]

Hi Ricky,

Well as I mentioned in my last post, I am using actual spins, not RNG. I simulated the casino conditions by getting a random number of spins every 5 games (between 100-150 spins). Tests actually show this makes no difference but I included it for the sake of "realism". If anyone wants to provide their own actual spins they're welcome (just in case they think I'm trying to fix the outcome, which I have no reason to do anyway).

What you're talking about there is just progressions and money management, but this only affects the bottom line in terms of profits/losses, not the win rate. According to John his conservative estimate of the win rate is 10:1, but the simulation only shows the expected value of 7:1. 

I haven't read the entire thread and I'm not sure where the complete rules of play are posted, but I got them from another forum -

The revised system rules

(1)--You track ALL THREE even chances at the same time, instead of focusing on just one like I once did. The advantages of this are a slightly higher strikerate. And faster game qualification.

(2)--The first even chance to deliver the 8th pattern is your bet.

(3)--You proceed to bet against the 8th pattern using the classic 1-2-4 progression.

(4)--You stop at a win or of course a loss.

(5)--Optional and something I recommend is to cover Zero at least the last step of the progression. So if my progression was 5--10--20. I would bet 5--10--22--(2 on zero).

(6)--I play no more than 5 to 10 games in a calendar day. I know there's been this argument forever that hit and run makes no difference in the sea of variance. But its worked for me for years. Securing an average strikerate of 10--1 to 12--1. And by allowing random to now choose your bet for you. This has improved to an average of 13 to 15 to 1.

(7)--I always play my first game of the day as my banker bet. As it has an outstanding strikerate of over 20--1. I bet 3 times as much on this first game. As the ones that follow.

I didn't include all 3 ECs in the sim because that only increases the opportunities and shouldn't affect the win rate, and neither did I take into account the zero, which again isn't necessary for the purpose of the sim.

[Joe]

A 90% win rate in 100 games will only produce 40 units.

Hi Ross, well if John's claimed win rate of 10:1 holds good in the long term and also takes into account the zero it would be a return of 3/11 chips per game or about 27 chips per 100 games on average. It might not sound much, but it represents about a 20% edge. Many sports bettors would be delighted with that.

[Ross]

Well...

(7)--I always play my first game of the day as my banker bet. As it has an outstanding strikerate of over 20--1. I bet 3 times as much on this first game. As the ones that follow.

So what's different about the first bet of the day?

My opinion - nothing.  Just luck again.

[Ricky]

Waiting for the last pattern is a complete waste of time.

Hi Coderjoe,
I disagree with your conclusion that waiting for that last pattern is a waste of time. This is the "special sauce" that is proving to avoid the losing bets and maximizing the winning bets. To try to explain to you the significance of PATTERN BREAKER strategy compared to just betting red on every spin as you claim shows the same results, let me ask you this proposition:

What is the likelihood that you will spin a coin 10 times and record the result and then immediately after spin another 10 times and get exactly the same result. ie say you spin HTHTHTHHHT then immediately after at that point in time you are asked by the casino to spin the EXACT same sequence. If you do you will win 1MILLION DOLLARS.
Now you may be EXTREMELY lucky and you achieve this result. BUT wouldn't you say that this EXACT sequence, assuming fair play and no funny business in the spins that you would FAIL many times out of 100 attempts. Each time you fail you lose your bets.

Well if you agree that the above proposition would cause you to have a negative expectation and you would most likely lose your bankroll and not get into profit let alone win the 1 MILLION DOLLARS PRIZE for getting the sequence correct twice in a row then you would agree that PATTERN BREAKER is actually a good method compared to just betting on red.

You see this is what PATTERN BREAKER is doing to the Casino. It is turning the above proposition on its head and getting the casino to do EXACTLY that. It is challenging the wheel to spin an exact sequence of 3 spins at EXACTLY at a point in time, IMMEDIATELY after spinning the 7th Pattern. And the smart thing about it is we are using the randomness of the wheel to choose when that 8th pattern must be spun. So the trigger occurs at a different time each time we play it. Sometimes the trigger may occur after 7 patterns of 3 have been spun, ie all 7 patterns are generated once without repeating sequences. Other times sequences are repeated so we have to wait longer for the 7th pattern to complete. And the sequence of the patterns is different all the time so we do not know in advance what that last pattern will be. So you start to realize the PATTERN BREAKER is not just a simple method that is no better than just betting red. But it is a very simple POWERFUL method that plays random against random.

This proposition of combinations and permutations is what man has invented to create locks for safes and the simple bike lock. It is widely known that if you use one of these locks or safes your precious items will be relatively safe from getting stolen. We all know about the extreme lengths thieves go through to crack safes. If it was that easy to pick a lock don't you think our precious items would be getting stolen on a regular basis. Sales of safes and locks would not be anywhere near as high as they are. The lock industry will die overnight.

So are you starting to understand that PATTERN BREAKER is not just another silly method. It has some logic to it and is the core reason why people like Sentinel and others are having success with this method. I plan on being another who will have long term success with this method where other methods I have used have failed long term.

Cheers,
Ricky

[ego]

 The problem with the test result is that they are false positiv.

For example you have more winnings then losing selections - so when you use hit and run you are more certain to hit a winning bet then a losing bet - let me illustrate this - assume you have 15 winning selections and one losing selection for the next eight hours - then you decide to jump on board with this particular live wheel online to play pattern breaker - then the probability is on your side that you will hit one of does 15 winning strikes with your first Banker bet - the true odds is 15 to 1 with this situation.

Another day you might have 25 winning selections and one losing selections - then the true odds is 25 to 1 using hit and run.
But other days the odds might be worse with 8 winning selections and 2 losing selections - but still pretty good chance hitting a winning strike among does results using hit and run.

So the probability and the true odds come in cycles and are not static as Coder Joes Test Results.

So when coder joe code the pattern breaker he make it continues flow where there is no beginning or end of the results.
Each day a gambler enter the table he does not know what the wheel has done or will do in the future.
But coder joes test show us that you get sometimes several winning strikes that increase the probability hitting one winning bet once using hit and run as does are more then the losing selections.

This might be the reason why the Banker Bet Works - where you bet higher units size with the first bet and lower you unit size into the second bet operating with casino money - for example 5 10 20 and after that 113 ...

Cheers

[Joe]

What is the likelihood that you will spin a coin 10 times and record the result and then immediately after spin another 10 times and get exactly the same result. ie say you spin HTHTHTHHHT then immediately after at that point in time you are asked by the casino to spin the EXACT same sequence. If you do you will win 1MILLION DOLLARS.
Now you may be EXTREMELY lucky and you achieve this result. BUT wouldn't you say that this EXACT sequence, assuming fair play and no funny business in the spins that you would FAIL many times out of 100 attempts. Each time you fail you lose your bets.

But each sequence has the same chance, so the odds don't change. It's the same with pattern breaker. The odds of 3 losses in a row haven't changed just because you waited for the final pattern. There is nothing special about that particular pattern at that moment in time. Ross is right to say it's pointless targeting one pattern over any other. All sequences of the same length have the same probability.

[RouletteGhost]

People aren’t worried about the odds or the fact PB isn’t special

The end game is profits in pockets, that’s what people care about

If they want to wait pointlessly let them, as long as they win, good on them

The 120-3 Win to loss ratio is far to common with this strategy for it to be a coincidence

I say let people play how they want, they know they aren’t changing the odds and they know they will lose at times

Being smart, stop loss, knowing when to walk away, will reduce losses. Take the loss don’t chase it.

Playing for a statistically insignificant number of spins is key. I think that’s why these guys are 120-2

Unlike your test results they stop on the first win in the theee step progression series, they don't keep going

To the guys winning with PB, good on you

Doesn’t matter what “strategy” you use. Being a smart bettor is what matters.

[psimoes]

Does that mean when you lose with PB it´s not because of its flaws, but because "you´re not smart enough"?

[psimoes]

Hi Coderjoe,
I disagree with your conclusion that waiting for that last pattern is a waste of time. This is the "special sauce" that is proving to avoid the losing bets and maximizing the winning bets. To try to explain to you the significance of PATTERN BREAKER strategy compared to just betting red on every spin as you claim shows the same results, let me ask you this proposition:

What is the likelihood that you will spin a coin 10 times and record the result and then immediately after spin another 10 times and get exactly the same result. ie say you spin HTHTHTHHHT then immediately after at that point in time you are asked by the casino to spin the EXACT same sequence. If you do you will win 1MILLION DOLLARS.
Now you may be EXTREMELY lucky and you achieve this result. BUT wouldn't you say that this EXACT sequence, assuming fair play and no funny business in the spins that you would FAIL many times out of 100 attempts. Each time you fail you lose your bets.

Well if you agree that the above proposition would cause you to have a negative expectation and you would most likely lose your bankroll and not get into profit let alone win the 1 MILLION DOLLARS PRIZE for getting the sequence correct twice in a row then you would agree that PATTERN BREAKER is actually a good method compared to just betting on red.

You see this is what PATTERN BREAKER is doing to the Casino. It is turning the above proposition on its head and getting the casino to do EXACTLY that. It is challenging the wheel to spin an exact sequence of 3 spins at EXACTLY at a point in time, IMMEDIATELY after spinning the 7th Pattern. And the smart thing about it is we are using the randomness of the wheel to choose when that 8th pattern must be spun. So the trigger occurs at a different time each time we play it. Sometimes the trigger may occur after 7 patterns of 3 have been spun, ie all 7 patterns are generated once without repeating sequences. Other times sequences are repeated so we have to wait longer for the 7th pattern to complete. And the sequence of the patterns is different all the time so we do not know in advance what that last pattern will be. So you start to realize the PATTERN BREAKER is not just a simple method that is no better than just betting red. But it is a very simple POWERFUL method that plays random against random.

This proposition of combinations and permutations is what man has invented to create locks for safes and the simple bike lock. It is widely known that if you use one of these locks or safes your precious items will be relatively safe from getting stolen. We all know about the extreme lengths thieves go through to crack safes. If it was that easy to pick a lock don't you think our precious items would be getting stolen on a regular basis. Sales of safes and locks would not be anywhere near as high as they are. The lock industry will die overnight.

So are you starting to understand that PATTERN BREAKER is not just another silly method. It has some logic to it and is the core reason why people like Sentinel and others are having success with this method. I plan on being another who will have long term success with this method where other methods I have used have failed long term.

Cheers,
Ricky

Am I wrong to assume JL was Sentinel3 and is now Ricky? Same writing style!
What´s with all the sockpuppeting here?

[RouletteGhost]

Does that mean when you lose with PB it´s not because of its flaws, but because "you´re not smart enough"?

any bet you place on the table is flawed because it is a negative expectation game.

no matter how the chips get on the mat its at the mercy of the house edge

so does not really matter how you play

i dont care if someones method is tapping their forehead, spinning around, and betting black

it takes smarts to be a winner

[Ricky]

But each sequence has the same chance, so the odds don't change. It's the same with pattern breaker. The odds of 3 losses in a row haven't changed just because you waited for the final pattern. There is nothing special about that particular pattern at that moment in time. Ross is right to say it's pointless targeting one pattern over any other. All sequences of the same length have the same probability.

Hi Coderjoe,
you are absolutely correct. I am not saying this is the holy grail infallable system that will NEVER lose. but as Clint Eastward phrased when shooting his magnum "Do you feel lucky punk? Well do you?" We are just turning the question back to the casino. If we lose that means the casino was lucky just as we are when we win. But it is not the player of PB that is guessing and feeling lucky. Its the casino. The point is that real life experience is showing that if you limit your bets to just these moments and ignore all the other spins that could be winners or losers then you are leaving luck to the casino not to yourself. It was not you that chose that moment to bet high or low or player or banker. It was the random event the took place in the previous spins.

I just came back from a local Casino here in Spain and played Andre's version of PB where he bets after a repeat of the same three hand sequence. I was only used a 1-2 betting progression and was playing it VERY patient. In the first shoe I only bet on one game and in fact it was an error so I should not really have bet. The next few shoes I was able to get some bets on and my result after about 3 hours was WLWWWWWLWWW. I did not use recovery and was playing with BR of 100 euro and made about 20 euro with now stress. My system told me when to bet and finished with 9 wins and 2 losses. Now if I continue this way I am sure I am going to grow my bankroll significantly. When I start losing as your simulation seems to predict I will let you know. But in the meantime I'm happy to employ this method until it starts losing on a long term basis. Somehow I do not think I am going to stop using this system. The only thing I will be doing is trying to maximize my staking levels to take advantage of the long winning streaks and minimize losses when the inevitable loss does occur. But a 9-2 after three hours with no Zero to cover and only slight 5c in the dollar disadvantage on the banker bet is giving me every confidence that this is a winning system.

You can continue running your simulations and let me know when you find a better system that is safer than PB with a 2 step progression risking less than or equal to 3 units and no recover mode to increase risks further.

cheers,
Ricky

PS. I am not Sentinel but wish I had his winning streak.

[Ricky]

Does that mean when you lose with PB it´s not because of its flaws, but because "you´re not smart enough"?

No it means the Casino got lucky. But its only getting lucky 1 in every 10+ spins. Calculate the win/loss ratio in terms of 100 spins. The PB player is taking advantage of a 10-20% edge over the Casino. If you play the same you will enjoy such advantage. What other method can you use that gives similar player advantage?

cheers,
Ricky