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To the "coders" and "testers" that contribute nothing but come to rain on parade

Started by RouletteGhost, Apr 05, 08:25 PM 2018

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Andre Chass

Quote from: Ricky on Apr 08, 09:02 PM 2018
Hi Andre,
I am not supporting or rejecting what people like JL are saying about hit & Run having a better win rate than playing continuously. But What I think the point is here is if you are playing this system for a source of living you will protect your bankroll and your profit as much as possible to avoid losing it by exposing your risk to the wheel/shoe more than you need to. So by claiming you will only play 2 games today and not play for another 18 hours should not be taken as this is the formula to success. Its because he probably made his daily profit target or maybe had a loss and did not want to expose himself further. He had the discipline to stop. So to keep his daily win rate up he avoided playing further. Had he continued playing one of two things could have happened. He either continued winning or started losing. So to keep a statistically high win rate he is playing for a statistically insignificant time.

It all about the tortoise and the hare. You can run as quickly as possible to riches and fortune with the risk of ruin, or you can slowly make a small amount each day to sustain a living and over a long period of time amass a small fortune. This could be called HIT & RUN but it is also called being wise with your gambling and not exposing yourself to unnecessary risks if you can avoid it.

Cheers,
Ricky

I agree we have to avoid losing the bankroll by exposing our risk to the wheel/shoe.

But what's the difference you play after 1 hour or after 18 h? It's no sense.

You can play five games only one day for week... You can play once a day for five days...
Nothing ventured, nothing gained...

cht

Quote from: Ricky on Apr 08, 09:02 PM 2018
Hi Andre,
I am not supporting or rejecting what people like JL are saying about hit & Run having a better win rate than playing continuously. But What I think the point is here is if you are playing this system for a source of living you will protect your bankroll and your profit as much as possible to avoid losing it by exposing your risk to the wheel/shoe more than you need to. So by claiming you will only play 2 games today and not play for another 18 hours should not be taken as this is the formula to success. Its because he probably made his daily profit target or maybe had a loss and did not want to expose himself further. He had the discipline to stop. So to keep his daily win rate up he avoided playing further. Had he continued playing one of two things could have happened. He either continued winning or started losing. So to keep a statistically high win rate he is playing for a statistically insignificant time.

It all about the tortoise and the hare. You can run as quickly as possible to riches and fortune with the risk of ruin, or you can slowly make a small amount each day to sustain a living and over a long period of time amass a small fortune. This could be called HIT & RUN but it is also called being wise with your gambling and not exposing yourself to unnecessary risks if you can avoid it.

Cheers,
Ricky
I disagree with this that Rouletteghost propounds on this forum.

Yes, individual short term plays have too small samples to make meaningful inference. But the combined population of all these small samples(short term plays) will make the result of the entire data set to be statistically significant.

With the unfair payout fixed at 1:35 for each spin, without any external bias the sum total of the small samples must converge to give the probabilistic outcome of a little less than 1:7 in a 3 steps bet making it a losing system.

Ricky

Quote from: cht on Apr 08, 10:11 PM 2018With the unfair payout fixed at 1:35 for each spin, without any external bias the sum total of the small samples must converge to give the probabilistic outcome of a little less than 1:7 in a 3 steps bet making it a losing system.

Hi CHT,
your mathematical argument is not being disputed. Thats why the casinos offer the game becuase they know  over the long term with the built in house advantage and the knowledge that 99% of gamblers have no discipline to stop gambling and no patience to wait for the the right time to gamble they will always profit from this game of chance. But because of this mathematical advantage that does not make any system a losing system. As players of PB say, when they start losing they will stop playing. As long as its working for them they will continue playing. It as simple as that.

So at the end of the day its just a personal preference. If you like the PB idea then you will play it over randomly choosing red or black and hoping to get lucky.

Cheers,
Ricky

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