Building systems around RARE EVENTS that never happen in your lifetime

[Roulettebeater]

If we are betting against rare events, why don't we take the simple example.
37 spin cycles?
I can't remember the last Time i saw More then 30 Different numbers appear in 37 spins?
Why don't we All tey to solve that?
Less tracking and it must be possible to profit from the fact that above 30 numbers is rare and that we find atleast 4 or 5 repeaters in every cycle.
Just a thought.

I feel your pain but, your assumption  is like teenage sex: everyone talks about it, nobody really knows how to do it, everyone thinks everyone knows how to do it

-:)

[jekhb76]

Why don't we try to solve the 37 spin problem, when solved, we can All make money and Sleep better for once and we can stop to pick on one and another All the Time. We All here for the same reason, why not put our Heads togeter for once. If we can't do this in the open, why not Make a private room Just like on roulette30 and discus is there further, with only respected members only with a min. Posts and rating before he or she can pertisipate. That way, we don't Have to be affraid that it will be All over the net in No Time. Again Just a thought for helping eachother instead of fighting All the Time, and for once solve the roulette puzzle for once and for All.

[jekhb76]

I feel your pain but, your assumption  is like teenage sex: everyone talks about it, nobody really knows how to do it, everyone thinks everyone knows how to do it

-:)

I know, but why do i Have the feeling that we already know the awnser, and that it can be done. But knowing something and putting it togethet are two Different things.
There are so many great math guys here on this Forum, why can't we All work togethet for once.
If something needs testing for many spins. Just ask me, i Will Help. And i'm sure many would. But we need to have the same goal here, not An owm agenda.

[Roulettebeater]

Because it's illusion, wake up !

[Joe]

Well then let's consider the principle. 3 consecutive reds is rare compared to RBR, BBR or RRB (3 combinations vs 1).

That's just basic probability. But how can we change the odds in this case with turbos approach? Anyone?

By analogy with his street system, wait until a pattern hasn't hit for a long time, then start betting on it when it wakes up. It doesn't matter which pattern you pick because they all have the same chance.

[Joe]

So player2 won a lot betting on sleepers while player1 lost on the hot numbers. Yes, that... could happen. Haha

But player 1 wasn't betting on hot numbers.

[psimoes]

Yeah I didn't bother to read the full post. Kind of disrespectful, I know.

[Joe]

There are so many great math guys here on this Forum, why can't we All work togethet for once.

Yeah but the more you know about maths the less likely you are to believe that there is a winning system. 

[Nimo]

Personally, I think the arguments are more about probability, odds are consistently 1/37. Probability changes dependence on the bet.  True random can give you 37 zeroes in a row with odds still being 1/37 per spin, the probability of that happening is the same as a Victoria
Secret supermodel seeing this post, tracking me down through the forum, knocking on my front door to ask me out

[jekhb76]

Because it's illusion, wake up !

Well i May not be in the Turbo Camp anymore, but one thing i'm pretty sure he has Right, is that everything in roulette can be worked out useing the Right math.
There must be something we can do with the information that we will always (in our Life playing roulette) at least 4 repeaters and that the Most we will See are 33 Different numbers, maybe 34, but that's it. Not saying it is impossible to See this event happening, but it is a very rare event.
And don't say that the chanses are the same for every other thing , it is All about the here and now and that we can makeoney out of it. The wordt scenario i can think of is when you are getting the 4 repeaters in the last spins 34-37. But they Will come. So now we only Have to work out the math to reach a min. Profit of one unit when we get 1-4 hits within the cycle.
Easy

[psimoes]

With time and hopefully few losses you'll see once there is an edge favouring the player any system can win, no matter how absurd it might seem. It doesn't work the other way around.

[Andre Chass]

The universe doesn't care about our perception of events, or belief they'll never happen. It just does what it does. And we don't get with the program, we lose.

In a thunderstorm I'd bet a million dollars a lightning never strikes the same place twice in the same minute.

You don't!?! 

Casino games is the same thing...

[The General]

So no matter how you re-arrange the numbers on the table, the math stays the same.

I'm recording and at spin 102 I'm finally down to 2 numbers not appeared.
That means at spin 101 I had 3 numbers that hadn't appeared.
So a street going for 101 spins is a "rare event" in my example.
Now it's appeared at spin 102 !  Player "2" starts, silly bastard waited
for that "rare event" before playing.
The math is the same, regardless of what the numbers are.
So here's a street bet - now that the rare event has happened, let's see
the results.
Spins until a win on any of these 3 numbers (street)
16 spins (we still have 2 that haven't appeared) Betting 1 number and won in 16 spins, not 37
9 spins and the next to last number appears. Now we're betting them both.
6 spins later the last number appears. Now we are betting all 3 - a street bet.
2 spins later, a win
10 spins later, another win
12 spins later, another win
2 spins later, another win
18 spins later, another win
26 spins later, another win
8 spins, win
2 spins, win
14 spins, win
6 spins, win
26 spins, win
11 spins, win
1 spin, win
11 spins, win  So about 1 win every 10.23 spins.
That's fine - the expected is 1 in 12.33 spins.
Player "2" did a little better than expected with +56 units flat betting.
---
But what about player 1 - who didn't think there was a benefit in trying to
take advantage of a "rare event".. he started from spin 1.
He finishes at the same time as player 2 - he's down 198 units !
Here are the charts - so there is NO benefit in attacking after a rare event
has occurred (in this example a street sleeping for 101 spins)
I ran this in RX of course as I typed this, wouldn't want anyone to think I
hand picked some spins that benefited by explanation.
So if the people who think it's rare to see some event happen such as
a street sleeping for 100+ spins, then surely they have to admit that this event
happening twice back-to-back on the same street are also rare.
Therefore, you can't say there's no value in waiting for a rare event to happen
and at the same time argue that when it does happen - it won't happen again.
Imagine the numbers rolling out of "random" and the last 5 numbers
appear and we keep tracking. NONE of them show again until they are the
last 5 numbers again ?  That's absurd. Of course there's a benefit because
we know what "won't happen" and can use this to our advantage.
Here's the two player's charts. They are the same except for one thing -
the "rare event" destroyed player 1 - it had NO effect on Player 2.
You can't lose a single unit by not betting on a number that doesn't appear.
The same, you can't lose a single unit on a rare event happening if you aren't
betting on it while it's happening. Now once it happens.... you can bet that
it won't repeat itself.

Turbo,

Here's a better example using your type of comparison.

Player one starts playing immediately on the number 9. 
He hits on the first spin
He hits on the second spin
He hits on the third spin
He hits on the forth spin
He hits on the tenth spin
He hits on the 24th spin
He stops playing on spin 72, after having won six times in only 72 spins!

Player two decides that it's a bad idea to bet until a number has gone at least 38 spins without hitting.
He then begins betting on spin 62.
He bets for the next 72 spins, but never hits a single spin.

So there you have it.  Proof that rare events is a horrible way to play!


Player one equity graph



Player two equity graph
--------------

Now do you understand why your original example was as absurd as the example that I provided above? 

[Roulettebeater]

@general

You're are too Strong for turbo.
Come down a little and let the game "one go here, one go there" ...
Give turbo a little chance to beat you back, and we will be all watching the furious fight.

Haha

-:)

[The General]

The correct way of debating the subject is to demonstrate how basic probability is changed by "waiting around for rare events."  Not by curve fitting stories like the one that Turbo and I wrote above.

The number of pockets on the wheel determines the probability of winning.  Agreed?

Player one begins playing immediately.  He looks down and counts the pockets.  Yep, there's 37 of them and it's a single zero wheel.  So he begins betting.
His probability of winning on a single number bet is 1 in 37. 


Player two decides to wait for a number to sleep for 400 spins before he begins to bet.
After all, by now there must be fewer pockets, right?
He then looks down to count the number of pockets on the wheel.
He counts them and realizes that there are still 37 numbers on the wheel.
This means that his probability of winning on a single number bet is also 1 in 37.
Dismayed, he decided to wait around for a number to again not hit for 400 spins and restarts the process.
He then counts the numbers remaining on the wheel again and realizes that there are still 37 numbers and that the probability of winning remains unchanged.

Now the real question here for everyone that believes in rare events is, how many times do you need to run the test above before you realize that the same number of pockets remain on the wheel, regardless of how long you stand around waiting for your rare events?