Building systems around RARE EVENTS that never happen in your lifetime

[jekhb76]

I don't know about you but i'm All about rare events.
If someone would Tell me that there is a chance that no 3peater Will come before spin 75, i would say sure, you're Right, it is possible. But Oh what fun i would Have with All the money i would Have won until that event Will happen  and Yes, then it happens at some Point, so what, i still would Have had a blast with All the things i did with the money i would Have won.
It's the same with goin': on An expensive Holiday, when it's over, you won't get Back All the money you would Have spend on your Holiday, but you still Have that great thought, how wonderful it was. Think about it.

[psimoes]

The thing is the rare events that can destroy your bank are not scheduled to happen only after you make that fortune. They can happen any time soon and even more than once.

[The General]

I don't know about you but i'm All about rare events.
If someone would Tell me that there is a chance that no 3peater Will come before spin 75, i would say sure, you're Right, it is possible. But Oh what fun i would Have with All the money i would Have won until that event Will happen  and Yes, then it happens at some Point, so what, i still would Have had a blast with All the things i did with the money i would Have won.
It's the same with goin': on An expensive Holiday, when it's over, you won't get Back All the money you would Have spend on your Holiday, but you still Have that great thought, how wonderful it was. Think about it.

Jekh,

What do you feel determines the probability of winning on a number if it's not related the number of pockets in which the ball can land?

The thing is the rare events that can destroy your bank are not scheduled to happen only after you make that fortune. They can happen any time soon and even more than once.

Yep. I certainly agree.

[cht]

This argument of 37 pockets remain unchanged.

What is the max number of consecutive repeating numbers ?

5 ?

Why have we not seen 10 or 20 consecutive repeats since random has no limits, right ?

[The General]

The argument of 37 pockets remain unchanged.

What is the max number of consecutive repeating numbers ?

5 ? Why have we not seen 10 or 20 since random has no limits, right ?

I've seen five in a row twice. 
The reason you don't see 10 or 20 in a row is because there's only ONE way for it to hit in that way, but there are a bazillion ways for it NOT to hit in that way.  HOWEVER the 20 spins that hit are just as rare as 20 in a row, because they too represent just one possible pattern.  It's just that nobody was probably looking for that exact pattern/sequence of numbers.

[Joe]

Now the real question here for everyone that believes in rare events is, how many times do you need to run the test above before you realize that the same number of pockets remain on the wheel, regardless of how long you stand around waiting for your rare events?

True, but most people wouldn't be satisfied with this "proof", and they have a point because you could say the same thing about betting on hot numbers, but sometimes there is a good reason why numbers may be "hot". Still, if you assume outcomes are random then it's a bullet-proof and very simple argument, but not very effective it seems, not on gambling forums anyway. 

[cht]

The thing is the rare events that can destroy your bank are not scheduled to happen only after you make that fortune. They can happen any time soon and even more than once.

Lets say the max consecutive repeats is 5.

We bet against it repeating the 5th.

The question is not what that max consecutive repeats may occur in the future. The max may be 10 for that matter, it does not materially affect our bet against the 5th.

The question is how many times does 4consecutive repeats turn into 5consecutive repeats.

This means the question is about whether variance has a limit in the real casino play. If that max limit can be measured.

And the most important question of all whether there is a sharp fall off point in the frequency distribution that can be exploited.

I stated this point 4 yrs ago in VLS forum.

[The General]

Lets say the max consecutive repeats is 5.

We bet against it repeating the 5th.

The question is not what that max consecutive repeats may occur in the future. The max may be 10 for that matter, it does not affect our bet against the 5th.

The question is how many times does 4consecutive repeats turn into 5consecutive repeats.

After 4 repeats, the probability of seeing a 5th is 1/37.
After seeing 10 repeats, the probability of seeing an 11th is 1/37.

What the non believers should be asking themselves is this:
For a single number bet...If the number of pockets on the wheel (degrees of freedom) doesn't determine the probability of winning, then what does? 

[psimoes]

To 'them' is not something to think about, but to 'feel', I think. They feel lucky betting against that 'rare' event. Logic has nothing to do with it, it's just superstition, common with gamblers. It's no wonder the call to reason gets so badly received at times. 'They' may not reckon, but feel it brings 'bad luck'.

[jekhb76]

The thing is the rare events that can destroy your bank are not scheduled to happen only after you make that fortune. They can happen any time soon and even more than once.

True, but i for one would take that chance and Have fun. I only play with money that isn't money anymore i need to buy bread with. So the Hell with it and Have fun while it lasts.

[cht]

4consecutive repeats is just an example.

Lets say we conduct actual test where we record data from the casino for 30days 24/7 and we found the result is as follows -

4repeats - 150times
5repeats - 3times

Can this actual stats count be exploited in this example ?

Yup the next month may not show the same distribution.

What if this test is extended for a period of 1yr and this frequency distribution remains the same ?

A hypothetical case to ponder.

[Joe]

Why have we not seen 10 or 20 consecutive repeats since random has no limits, right ?

There is no theoretical limit and there only seems to be a practical limit because "rare" events depends on sample size. Nobody has ever seen 10 consecutive repeats not because it's impossible but only because it takes more spins than have ever been spun by all wheels since the game was invented.

[The General]

4consecutive repeats is just an example.

Lets say we conduct actual test where we record data from the casino for 30days 24/7 and we found the result is as follows -

4repeats - 150times
5repeats - 3times

Can this actual stats count be exploited in this example ?

Yup the next month may not show the same distribution.

What if this test is extended for a period of 1yr and this frequency distribution remains the same ?

A hypothetical case to ponder.

The longer the test is run, the closer it will get to matching what basic probability predicts.  Regardless of the of the number of repeats, a number still has a probability of winning of 1/37.

[psimoes]

True, but i for one would take that chance and Have fun. I only play with money that isn't money anymore i need to buy bread with. So the Hell with it and Have fun while it lasts.

oh but of course. Nothing wrong with taking chances and having fun with it. Just to remind that you cant build a system based on that and expect it to win now and again.

[cht]

There is no theoretical limit and there only seems to be a practical limit because "rare" events depends on sample size. Nobody has ever seen 10 consecutive repeats not because it's impossible but only because it takes more spins than have ever been spun by all wheels since the game was invented.

So this argument that this theoretical max may not play out in real casino play is a reasonable assumption ?

Even then the question is how many times it exceed historical max 5, not the max of max in whatever future time if it ever happens.